If you need to hire an MIT grad to help you figure out your team’s chances of making the playoffs, those chances can be summed up like this, “You are screwed.”
Here at Desipio, we want to help Cubs’ fans realize just how unlikely a playoff appearance is for our heroes. Granted it’s not impossible, and it would be really cool, but if you’re holding your breath, well, you’ll be purple and the Cubs will still be in fourth place in the NL Central.
Honestly, shouldn’t there be something in Dusty’s contract that reads like this? “If at any time after the All-Star Break in any season, your team falls behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the standings, you’re fired.” Of course there should be. But there’s not.
Phil Rogers wrote in today’s Tribune that the Cubs’ should either offer Dusty Baker a two-year contract extension (through 2008…gulp) or fire him.
Oh, that makes perfect sense. You either keep a guy around for three more years or you fire him on the spot? In what kind of warped, retarded logic does that make sense?
I found Phil’s column to be completely disorienting (which is normal) and horribly depressing. Here’s why, Phil tries to paint an optimistic future for the Cubs and even his best case scenario is crap. I don’t want to admit it, you don’t want to admit it and Phil is too dumb to notice, but it’s looking more and more like 2003 is as good as it got. That was the peak. It’s certainly been all downhill since and the grade is getting steeper as we go.
Since it’s always good fun to rip a Phil Rogers piece to shreds. Let’s do just that.
On one hand, it seems honorable that Dusty Baker is willing to go into the last season of his four-year contract without any assurances beyond 2006. Managers with less confidence in themselves would be lobbying for guaranteed money in an extension.
Dusty’s dumb but he’s not stupid. How can you take a team and do a worse job at it every year, but go to your bosses and demand an extension and a raise?
Who does that?
Oh, yeah. Well he’s the only one though.
Oh, never mind.
On the other hand, Baker knows he’ll become a free agentâ€â€and able to play the Cubs off any potential suitorsâ€â€at the end of next season. That means the organization can’t count on keeping a good thing going if Baker does kindle a spark after back-to-back disappointing seasons.
Honestly, if Dusty keeps drilling sinkholes in the Cubs’ ship, he’s going to be a free agent with no place to go. I know there are a lot of dumb people out there who just look at his career record and think he’s a sage baseball manager, but every year more of the dumb become educated.
I know the schedule says this one isn’t over yetâ€â€that’s why the Cubs will spend the weekend in Coloradoâ€â€but it closed for practical purposes with the last eight-game losing streak.
Wow, even Phil knows the Cubs are screwed. The situation is worse than I thought. Somebody start filling bags with sand and call the National Guard!
Given the price the Cubs have paid for a lack of continuity in the past, it would probably be wise for team President Andy MacPhail to force the issue: Offer Baker a two-year extension at the end of this season and see if he wants to stick around and try to finish what he started. If Baker doesn’t take it, everybody needs to swallow hard and move on.
I will resist writing any of the 432 “swallow hard” jokes that came to mind, because this is the crux of Phil’s column, and it is so ridiculous that the WB is going to make an entire show about it.
On what planet is it a good idea to either tie a guy up long term when you don’t have to OR fire him? How are those the two choices. That’s like going to a car dealership and saying, “I’m either going to extend my lease by two years, or I’m going to douse the car in kerosene and set it on fire. I’ve thought long and hard about this and those are my only two options.”
Otherwise, Baker’s uncertain status could cloud an off-season that will go a long way toward determining whether the Cubs will get another October opportunity behind the arms of Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Kerry Wood.
This almost makes sense. Almost. However, whether or not Dusty has a contract for one, two or three years doesn’t make any difference. Regardless of the length of his deal, he’s not going to give Ronny Cedeno or Matt Murton the time of day. Regardless of the length of his deal, he’s still going to fill out the lineup card wrong every day, still going to butcher the bullpen and still going to exude the same clueless arrogance he has since day one. The reason it almost makes sense is that if the Cubs keep him, they have made a decision to go with veterans. So yes, his “status” does have some bearing on the chances of the Cubs getting back to the playoffs before Carlos, Mark and Kerry are organ donors. Just not in the way Phil thinks it does.
Honestly, if you bring Dusty back you need to bring Nomar and Todd Walker back, and you HAVE to find TWO corner outfielders. You either go older and more expensive in a shot at the 2006 pennant, or you are wasting another year with Dusty. Honestly, I think another year of Dusty regardless of his roster is a waste, but any thought of keeping him around has to be with the idea of getting expensive, proven (guys who don’t need managing or coaching) players to fill your holes. Do we think the Tribune is going to do that?
People talk about “Dusty-proofing” the roster. They always mean it in terms of getting rid of his Ramon Martinez-Jose Macias-Lenny Harris, useless veteran bench players. But the only way to “Dusty-proof” a roster is to make it so veteran and (most importantly) talented, that he can’t botch it. The Cubs have no intention of spending the money necessary to do that. In fact, the Yankees probably don’t spend enough right now to sufficiently be able to afford a Dusty-proofing.
Beginning with the Sammy Sosa trade and continuing through the release of Mike Remlinger last week, Cubs general manager Jim Hendry has cleared almost $35 million worth of bad contracts off his books, which puts him in position to control the free-agent market next winter.
The number is interesting, but releasing Mike Remlinger had nothing to do with how much money the Cubs have cleared for next year, since Remlinger’s deal expires at the end of his season and they didn’t owe him anything for next year, anyway. But it points out something Jim Hendry has done well. The Cubs currently only have one “bad” long term contract. Kerry Wood. The only other guys with deals of any length are the best players on the team, Derrek Lee and E-ramis Ramirez, and Derrek’s might turn out to be too short, since it’s up after next season.
However, there’s a flip side to that. While having payroll flexibility is great, by not going hard after big time free agents the past couple of seasons because they were waiting for Sammy Sosa’s deal to end, the Cubs have freed up a lot of money for an offseason in which there is nobody to spend it on. There’s no Carlos Beltran or Miguel Tejada in this free agent class. The Cubs will spend a relatively big amount of money, but they won’t get a player as good as either Beltran or Tejada. That’s where they were incredibly short sighted.
Assuming the Cubs exercise options to keep Jeromy Burnitz, Todd Walker and Scott Williamson, they will owe roughly $71 million to 14 players under their control (estimating raises for arbitration-eligible players). But that total probably is high because Burnitz’s second-half slide makes his return doubtful and questions remain about right-hander Williamson’s arm strength.
Burnitz, despite his bad second half, has still been better than the Cubs could have hoped this season. But if they really were thinking about keeping him at his inflated number for next year, and were only recently dissuaded, they’re bigger dopes than we think. He’s neither young enough or good enough to pay that kind of money again.
Walker has to be brought back because the Cubs have nothing behind him at second base. If you let him go, Neifi! becomes your second baseman because neither Richard Lewis or Mike Fontenot is that good. You have to keep Walker, and hope he learns to throw the ball overhand again.
As for Williamson, did the Cubs really think he was going to be lights out barely a year after his second Tommy John surgery? Ryan Dempster wasn’t any great shakes last year in a similar situation and he’s been just fine this year. I do like this trend of signing successful pitchers to cut-rate deals while they rehab from Tommy John Disease, and would like to see the Cubs do it with Octavio Dotel this offseason. You don’t have to make closers out of them, especially since your middle relief is so horrid every year.
The total already committed drops below $60 million if the Cubs cut Burnitz ($7 million mutual option), Williamson and Corey Patterson, who joins unsigned Nomar Garciaparra in giving Hendry two difficult internal decisions.
At one point I thought the Cubs were done with Corey, but now I’m more convinced he’ll open next season with them. His salary is not a big deal, especially for a team with their resources and the only way keeping him will hurt them long-term is if they pass on a trade or a free agent signing for a center fielder because they’re still waiting on him. You keep Corey with the idea that if a better player (Juan Pierre, Johnny Damon, etc.) comes available, you get them and either trade Corey or move him to right or left. Honestly, the Cubs could do worse than a Murton-Damon-Patterson outfield to start next season. And they will.
As for Nomar, I don’t think there’s a great risk in bringing him back at a similar deal to the one he’s playing under now. You have Cedeno at Iowa who appears ready to play and you know they’re bringing Neifi back, so the only thing you risk with Nomar is wasting cash, and since it’s not our money, do we really care?
Assuming Tribune Co. keeps the payroll at $100 million, which this season is the fourth largest in the majors, Hendry will have $30 million to $42 million to spend on free agents and players acquired via trades, depending on what he does with Burnitz, Patterson and Williamson. Even if he keeps all three, he’ll have plenty to invest in a left fielder, a shortstop (possibly re-signing Garciaparra to a second one-year contract), one starter and three or four relievers, including a closer (probably re-signing Ryan Dempster).
Money should not be a problem no matter what they do. But it’s the Cubs, so it will be a problem and an excuse.
This doesn’t look like a great free-agent crop, but there are some intriguing possibilities. Among them:
Left field: Brian Giles and Preston Wilson are the best names on the free-agent market. Other possibilities include Jacque Jones and Reggie Sanders. The best in-house option is Matt Murton, with re-signing Matt Lawton another possibility.
Of that bunch, only Giles is an improvement over the current Lawton/Murton platoon, and Giles isn’t exactly a pup. Lawton isn’t a good outfielder, but he is a competent lead-off man, something the Cubs seem to run from at all costs.
Center field: Boston’s Johnny Damon is probably the most attractive position player on the market. If he doesn’t re-sign with the Red Sox, the Cubs seem almost certain to take a run at him. Patterson’s future could depend on what Damon does. And don’t worry about Felix Pie. Either Patterson or Damon could move to a corner if the talented 20-year-old proves himself ready in the near future.
Damon’s the best free agent out there and right now the best leadoff man in the game. He’s strange and getting old, but his only real deficiency is his arm. He should be their top priority, and signing him would mean there’s no need for Lawton and Patterson becomes trade bait. If the Red Sox decide to go with their stated in-house option of moving prospect Hanley Ramirez to center, the Cubs will be Damon’s top choice, at least until he sees how much they want to pay him compared to how much the Yankees do.
Shortstop: Signing prospective free agent Rafael Furcal is a better option than re-signing the risky Garciaparra. Furcal has had his problems off the field, including jail time after the playoffs in 2003. But, like Damon, he would add instant credibility to the top of the order. Ronny Cedeno looks solid, but it’s still a risk to count on him as a table-setter for Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez.
Somebody has to say it, so I’m going to. Rafael Furcal is an alcoholic and doesn’t get on base enough to take advantage of his speed. Plus, nobody knows how old he really is. It’s not like he spent time in the offseason in jail because of a second DUI conviction or anything…oh, wait. He did. And it’s not like he had to admit he was two years older than everybody thought to help in his plea bargain over an “underage” DUI he got a few years ago. Oh, wait. He did.
The only decision here is whether you go with Cedeno next year or in 2007. The Braves are going to happily wave Furcal into the sunset. They’re not wrong very often.
Pitching: Rebuilding the bullpen is the priority, and adding a starter wouldn’t hurt. Though Philadelphia is trying to re-sign Billy Wagner, he figures to be the one marquee reliever available through free agency. Baltimore closer B.J. Ryan (23-for-28 in save situations), like Wagner a lefty, might be the next best free agent. One problem is that many of the potentially attractive free agents (Kyle Farnsworth, Tom Gordon and Julian Tavarez) already have passed through Wrigley Field.
Because of the recurring injuries to Wood and Prior, the Cubs need to be six or even seven deep in the rotation. Count on Zambrano, Greg Maddux, Wood and Prior all returning. Hendry will weigh a run at A.J. Burnett but could wind up signing a second-tier free agent to provide an additional option alongside Jerome Williams, Rich Hill and Ricky Nolasco.
The first thing the Cubs need to do is sign Dempster and then go try and find another closer. They have to lock him in so that that’s the “worst” they can do at that position. He’s done a good job and seems to have an aptitude for the position, but the bullpen is such a morass that one arm won’t suffice. If you sign a different closer first, it opens an option for Dempster to leave and sign with that team, and then your net gain is either little or nothing. So that’s what the Cubs will do.
What the Cubs need to do this offseason is to continue a trend that has worked well for them in the past with Matt Clement, E-ramis and Derrek Lee. They need to use their farm system to trade for good players who are pricing themselves out of their current situations. The Cubs can do it because they have prospects (who come with plenty of hype, if nothing else) and plenty of cash. This year’s free agent class will not be enough, and honestly, Hendry’s strength is these type of trades anyway.
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The Bears say their current contract offer is “final.” Sure it is. Whatever. What we know is that the Bears are run by a collection of dopes. They make the Cubs’ front office look like the Algonquin Roundtable.
Bud Selig says the rumors that Roger Clemens flunked a steroid test are untrue. Was he pointing at the camera?
Johnny Damon says the rumors about him are untrue. Was he pointing at the camera?
Dusty says that you can’t play “kids” in a pennant race and says that “half my team is kids.” Uh…no, no, it’s not Dustbag. You’ve got three right now, Murton, Wellemeyer and Wuertz and one of them is going away when Jerry the Lesser comes off the DL today. So shut up. You ought to have more, but you have no clue how to handle them. And Carlos and Prior don’t count. You’re not a kid after four years in the big leagues.
Randy Moss says he smokes weed. Oh, really? What a shock!
The world’s finest newspaper says that ladies who go topless live longer. I agree!
And by the way, there will be a Cubs Live (or whatever we’re calling it now) for the weird 4 p.m. start in Denver today. So the comments will be open again. See, this isnt’ so bad.
