The Conference Finals are here, which means the number of teams able to win the 2007 NBA Championship has been reduced to the final 4.

Although you’d be forgiven for thinking there were only 2.

A quick troll through the usual websites and blogs previewing Conference Final matchups sees all the nation’s NBA experts unimaginatively picking the Spurs and the Pistons to prevail.

Of course, as we all know, expert predictions don’t mean anything.  In case you forgot, ESPN’s elite panel of NBA gurus unanimously picked Houston to bounce the Jazz in the first round, and just 10 days later the same bunch of basketball connoisseurs (except Greg Anthony and Billy Simmons), didn’t learn their lesson – picking Golden State to defeat Utah.  And we know how those 2 series ended up.

Yes, San Antonio are hot favorites, and yes, this series has far less promise than the expected Spurs / Mavs West Finals matchup that the NBA re-jigged the playoff seeding to allow us this year.  But Jerry Sloan is a master of extracting every possible advantage for his team, and although the Jazz lack depth and shirk in comparison to San Antonio’s vast playoff experience, if the Spurs are indeed good enough to prevail in this series, they will certainly have earned it.  One thing we do know, the physical Jazz won’t put up with any of San Antonio’s sneaky cheap shots they’ve been getting away with all playoffs.

One of the points that was lost throughout the hysteria over the league’s decision to suspend both Amaré Stoudemire and Boris Diaw for “leaving the bench during the altercation” between Robert Horry and Steve Nash last week was that the NBA didn’t allow the suspensions to be served in consecutive games.  Yes, both Diaw and Stoudemire left the bench.  Yes, the NBA slavishly applied the rule.  And yes, the Suns’ coaching staff should have done a better job in keeping their players off the court.

But as well as Phoenix played in game 5 (controlled the tempo, dug in defensively, made their free throws, attacked the glass), they were never going to win without both Stoudemire and Diaw.  As we’ve seen over the past 2 seasons, the Suns’ system can operate perfectly well without either player, but not without both of them.  And that’s why the league should have allowed them to sit out consecutive games – having Diaw play in game 6, when he had just 1 point and 1 rebound in 13 minutes, was completely pointless.  This season, Diaw has sublimated his role and become a perfect insurance policy for when Stoudemire gets injured or in foul trouble.  But, with the big guy suspended, it hurt Phoenix irreparably to have Diaw prevented from playing in the same game.

One other observation from the Nash/Horry incident was just how extraordinary Nash’s handles are.  How many players can be dribbling the ball, get body-slammed into the hoardings by a 6-foot-10 opponent, and still have the ball end up in their hands?  I’ve checked out the footage half a dozen times, and Nash’s ball control – even when he’s nearly unconscious – is incredible.

The Eastern Conference Finals kick off tonight, and for the Cavs to be able to take down the quietly intimidating Pistons they must be consistent offensively.  Over Chicago’s 6 game series defeat by Detroit, in the 2 wins the Bulls averaged 105 ppg, and the 4 losses 78.8 – an extraordinary 26 point differential.  That’s the impact of 2 or 3 additional players, or one extra All-star (hello, Pau).

Cleveland’s offense has been static recently, and this was up against a New Jersey defense that’s nowhere near as mobile or as conhesive as Detroit’s.  But the Cavs have something the Bulls did not – a knowledge gained from last year’s playoffs that the Pistons are actually beatable.  If it weren’t for some missed free throws and an inability to prevent offense rebounds, the Cavs may well have upset Detroit last year, and in the past 12 months they’ve become an even better team.  They’re better defensively, they’re better physically, and they’re better emotionally.

Plus, it’s the perfect opportunity for LeBron to step up and assert himself upon the stage his career so desperately needs.

A couple of other points;

Good news for fans in Minnesota, Sacramento, Milwaukee, Seattle, Memphis and any other rudderless franchise you can think of that’s crying out for a new coach.  This summer, you have a chance at not one, but 2 superb candidates, as both the Indiana Pacers and Houston Rockets have sacked Rick Carlisle and Jeff Van Gundy respectively since the season ended.

Yes, these men would command significant coin, and yes, these men would be inclined to turn down an offer if the team’s composition or autonomy package weren’t right.  And yes, either or both these men may yet choose to take next season off to re-charge their admittedly worn batteries.  But the fact remains, it’s the most available elite coaching talent we’ve seen off contract in years.

And that’s not counting the usual suspects Larry Brown, Doug Collins, Rick Adelman, Jim O’Brien, et al.

Early indications suggest that Carlisle may end up working for former teammate Kevin McHale, whilst Van Gundy is a (very) dark-horse for Miami Heat’s top job.

Don’t forget the lottery Tuesday.   In the 13 years since the NBA altered the ping pong balls in the wake of Orlando going back to back in 1993, only 2 number one seeds have gained the first pick.  You’re actually more likely to win the lottery if you pick 5th (Seattle) or 3rd (Milwaukee). 

New York of course, are holding the 9th seed for Chicago.

So, who’s going to win?  Well, allow me to make an expert prediction; the lottery gods are going to smile on Philadelphia.