Every once and a while I like to head on over to Bleed Cubbie Blue, where most of us have been banned from posting, and because of that, when I need to refute something that the talentless void that is Al Yellon has written, I have to do it here because he won’t let me do it there any more.
Today, he’s got a doozy. He unveiled the results of the moronic community projections he and his legion of dumbasses worked on the past few weeks. You probably know the drill. You guess what numbers certain players will put up during the season and you average those with what everybody else engaged in the pointless exercise thinks. These are never any good, and they’re almost always wildly optimistic.
So I was interested to see what the Pollyellons would come up with. And, it’s just about what you would expect.
They think that six of the Cubs regular eight players will post OPS’s of over .800, and that three of them will top .900. Well, it turns out they really only think two guys will top .900. You’ll see. Anyway, if their projections are true, Rudy Jaramillo deserves a raise, and Mark McGwire is going to demand to find out where Rudy’s getting his shit.
One set of numbers struck me as really odd. Their projection for Kosuke Fukudome is laughable. Here’s what Al has down as the projections for Kosuke’s averages.
BA OBA SLG OPS Kosuke .292 .395 .554 .949
That’s just wrong, and dumb. But when you look at the raw numbers Al published for Kosuke, they don’t look THAT crazy. Crazy, yes, but not THAT crazy.
430 at bats, 120 hits, 27 doubles, four triples and 11 homers.
Here’s why they don’t look THAT crazy. Because when you figure the batting average, on base average and slugging percentage correctly, you get this.
BA OBA SLG OPS Kosuke .279 .385 .437 .822
It’s still too high, but it’s not quite as laughable. And the best part is that in the comments section (that we’re not allowed to play in), Al just can’t figure out why everybody was so gosh darned optimistic about Kosuke.
So it made me wonder. If he screwed that up, how many of the other ones did he botch?
The short answer is…all of them.
He got them all wrong. Every single one. He didn’t do the math right for any of them. In fact, if you just look at batting average, on base average, slugging percentage and OPS, he had 32 chances to take the raw numbers and average them. He was wrong 30 times. Thirty.
Al batted .062 on this exercise.
To be fair, since he didn’t ask for hit batsmen you can’t accurately calculate on base average (hits + walks + hit batsmen/ at bats + walks + hit batsmen + sacrifice flies). But that doesn’t matter for this exercise because you just leave that out of both sides of the equation. Same with sac flies since he didn’t ask for it. Sac bunts aren’t factored into on base average. See, no wonder stat heads think they’re dumb.
So how far off was Al? I mean he didn’t miss them all by 127 points, like he did Kosuke, right? I underlined and made the two he figured correctly red. He can print it out and put it on his mommy’s refrigerator.
Actual Math Al's Math BA OBA SLG OPS BA OBA SLG OPS Soto .284 .361 .474 .835 .289 .365 .483 .849 Al +14 Lee .302 .383 .537 .920 .304 .384 .539 .924 Al +4 Baker .283 .348 .436 .784 .282 .345 .434 .779 Al -5 E-ramis .309 .384 .556 .950 .312 .386 .568 .954 Al +4 Theriot .291 .358 .379 .737 .291 .356 .378 .735 Al -2 Soriano .282 .335 .518 .853 .282 .333 .517 .851 Al -2 Byrd .287 .347 .465 .812 .286 .346 .461 .807 Al +5 Fukudome .279 .385 .437 .822 .292 .395 .554 .949 Al +127
It’s pretty obvious that he let the lemmings put in their own averages and he averaged those, instead of taking the time to figure out the averages himself, from the numbers he demanded they provide him anyway. Or is it? Because they came fairly close most of the time. He jacked up Soto’s pretty badly. Maybe he just doesn’t know how to calculate anything?
Nah, not our boy Al. He knows everything.
Oh, and how long did it take to check his work? About ten minutes. Nice job though, Al.