Starlin is a rough watch

I’m pretty sure that I still like Starlin Castro more than most Cubs fans.  I’m pretty sure that if you like him “at all” it’s more than most Cubs fans.  We have history with Starlin.  He was a 19 year old rookie called up to a bad Cubs team, without the kind of run in the minor leagues that this regime likes to give young players.  He’s always been a hacker.  He doesn’t walk much.  Never has.  But for the most part he’s hit.  Never for the kind of power that was projected for him, but still, Starlin could put the barrel of the bat on the ball.

His defense has never been what you would call…good.  He can make great plays, and he can turn around and boot a routine grounder.  He’s never been particularly focused on the field.  All of that was annoying in previous years, especially when it wasn’t really being solved by him, but he was young so we figured eventually he’d figure it out.

He was terrible in 2013, and his struggles and the struggles of Anthony Rizzo were big reasons why the Cubs fired Dale Sveum.  Both Starlin and Anthony bounced back under the Care Bear leadership of Rick(y) Renteria last year.  So we all figured that was fixed.

There was an actual reason for Starlin’s 2013 struggles.  The franchise wanted him to change his approach at the plate.  Be more selective, don’t just swing at the first pitch you can reach, wait and get a pitch you can drive.  You know…take on a grown up, big league approach at the plate.  Not everybody can do that.  Starlin couldn’t.

I was interested to see what would happen when Starlin finally played on a good team.  I figured he’d rise to the occasion and focus more in the field and keep on hitting.

He did.  For a month.  At the end of April, the Cubs were an offensive juggernaut, especially once Kris Bryant served his eight-game exile in Des Moines.  Starlin finished the month .325/.349/.410/.759 with a pair of homers and 12 RBI.  Pretty good.

It’s been pretty much shit ever since.

In May he hit .221/.264/.274/.539 with a whopping 24 strikeouts in 121 at bats.

He rebounded a little in June hitting a whopping .245/.284/.343/.628

And in July, you could basically replace his production at the plate with a broomstick with a bat taped to it– .153/.177/.186/.364 with four RBI.

As Lee Elia would say the problems are “multifold.”  It would be bad enough if Starlin was a good defensive shortstop who was struggling at the plate.  He’s not even an average shortstop.

He’s never out-hit his errors, but the spread this year is way too wide to ignore.  He’s not a plus baserunner, so right now in the three ways a position player can help you (offense, defense and on the bases) he’s a liability in all three.

So how did this happen?  How does a guy with 932 hits in 830 career games just stop hitting at the age of 25?  He’s young.  He’s healthy.  He’s terrible.

Last year he had a 117 OPS+.  This year it’s 64.  Sixty-four!  An average big league shortstop is 100.

The cries to bench him are in full throat now from the Cubs fanbase.  Earlier in the season it was exaggerated because the “big fans” who hadn’t watched a game in six years were back chiming in, but now, even they are right.

The problem is that the alternatives aren’t good.

The fix that’s the easiest to accommodate is to move rookie Addison Russell to shortstop (his natural position) and play Jonathan “Buckets” Herrera at second.

Here’s the problem.  Neither one of them can hit either.  But…your defense would improve.  And as we’ve seen in glaring detail just the last four games, this team plays astonishingly bad defense–especially for a team that’s pitching so well right now.

Russell’s OPS+ is 83, which at least puts him closer to league average.  But until his two hits last night, this was Addison’s slash line for July: .162/.262/.189.

The Cubs middle infield was slugging .186 and .189 respectively in July.

Can’t anybody here play this game?

Something big was coming in June when Javy Baez broke a finger sliding into a base in the Pacific Coast League.  He was hitting, the Cubs were getting ready to make a roster move.  Some think he was being traded, others think Starlin was, but something clearly was going to happen.

Now, more than a month later, Javy’s just now getting ready to play rehab games, and Starlin is taking a wet newspaper to the batter’s box four times a night.

If the Cubs had a healthy Tommy LaStella¹ there’s a good chance Starlin would be getting fewer at bats with Addison splitting time at both short and second.  But Tommy’s not healthy.

If Arismendy Alcantara wasn’t putting up one of the weirdest stat lines imaginable in Iowa, he would be up filling the LaStella void.

Alcantara is having a great and terrible season at the plate in Iowa at the same time.  Through 80 games he has 16 doubles, 10 triples, 11 homers, 13 stolen bases in 17 attempts and is slugging .470.  But he has also struck out 91 times in those 80 games against only 26 walks, and his on base average is .308.

What’s weird about it is that it’s basically what he did last year in 89 games in Iowa, when he had 25 doubles, 11 triples and 10 homers against 83 K’s to 25 walks.  But his batting average was fifty points higher last year, and thus, so was his on base average.

So what are the Cubs to do?  Do they trade for a second baseman to get the through the rest of the year, and give most of the shortstop playing time to Russell?  Do they sell low (really, really, really, really) low on Castro to a team who figures he’s not really this bad and likes the idea of a 25 year old, three-time All-Star playing for them on a cost controlled contract until 2019 (with a $16 million option for 2020)?

I could see a team like Oakland valuing Starlin.  Billy Beane would like the fact Starlin “only” makes $7.5 million next year.  A bounce back season would restore Starlin’s trade value and Billy could flip him for something else.  Of course, the risk is that he doesn’t bounce back and you’re stuck with an escalating contract that by 2018 is up over $10 million/per.

What can’t happen is to just keep trotting him out to short every day.  He’s started giving up at bats.  When he’s at his best he’s spraying the ball around the field, taking it where it’s pitched.  But we haven’t seen that approach in a long time now.  Now he’s making up his mind to swing before the pitch is thrown.  How he ever gets a strike to hit is a mystery.

Well, maybe it’s not.  Maybe the idea is to give him a strike that he can beat into the ground and you can turn into another double play.

But right now, if the Cubs are going to try to win games with a middle infield where you can’t ADD their slugging percentages together to get .400, you might as well do it with guys who can actually catch and throw the ball.

Goddamnit, Starlin, why can’t you just start hitting so we can focus our angst on Neil Ramirez’ complete lack of velocity and just how much it looks like Rafael Soriano is going to suck?

1. And if, Tommy doesn’t suck. A big if.