Bears 2015 Draft Discussion

[CubFaninHydePark]

But basically Bears fans have lived in horrible jealousy of the fuckheads to the north who have benefitted from two Hall of Fame quarterbacks for twenty years and they make it look so easy and we reach the point where half the fan base (as evidence by our moron friend CFIHP) would rather just tank every year on the off chance of maybe finding one of those transcendent QBs and risk never being competitive again, I guess, rather than watch them try to build a solid roster around Cutler and hope to ride a hot streak to a Flacco or Eli-esque title run, knowing full well the odds are more in favor of another 8-8 dickpunch.

TL, DR: watching too much Aaron Rodgers has definitely ruined the fan base, because we'll never get to have one of those as long as I live and I know it.

The Colts have managed to do the whole tank and draft an elite QB thing twice in my lifetime.  Evaluations of the NFL draft show that the value in the first round is either really early, or really late, but if you're drafting in the middle, any of those picks are basically as good as any other one.

This team had a chance to win a Super Bowl ala the Ravens or Giants for much of the last decade, when it had a very good to dominant defense.  The Giants teams that got there could rush the passer.  The Ravens defense was good.  Even the Steelers defenses in Roethlisberger's Super Bowls was above average.

Going all in on offense now, when you know the defense is going to be awful for some time, doesn't make sense.  Unless 8-8 or a Wild Card flameout is your goal.  Then it makes tons of sense.  Having a QB that could still get a ton out of Forte/Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett while being more consistent than Cutler (the quarter-by-quarter variance in his QB rating each game is mind-boggling most Sundays) and using the resources you'd save to more quickly rebuild the defense makes more sense.

The late and ill-advised throw on the slant was bad.  Throwing to a guy short of the end zone at the end of the first half was bad.  Throwing the ball into the gut of a d-lineman and costing the team a win in Week 1 was really bad.  

It's not just Rodgers that has ruined this fan base.  It's the failure of the team to get someone like Roethlisberger or Eli or Philip Rivers or Brees in that entire decade of opportunity the defense gave them.  They went out and got Cutler, and that ended up both being a mistake (it didn't work), and then they double-downed on that mistake.  The cost in draft picks and salary cap space is significant.  

But hey, he's going to shatter Sid Luckman's record, and he makes some great throws to freaks of nature from time to time....so I should just be overjoyed Cutler is better than the feces that has lined up under center for most of my lifetime and be happy we have him.  QB is the single-most important position in any professional sport today.  I agree that we root for a franchise that will never bless us with a truly elite player at that position.

I held out in turning on Cutler for a long fucking time.  But then I was in Minneosta in 2012, when he threw two awful lazy back-foot INTs that kept that 10 win team from being an 11-win team...and allowed the Vikings to be a 10-win team and edge out the Bears, so they could start Joe Fucking Webb in Green Bay in the wild card round.  That season came down to those two awful balls Jay threw.  Everything else good he did that season - that's what he's supposed to do.  The window closed with those INTs.  And instead of rebuilding in a reasoned and methodical manner, we're throwing tons of money at Cutler hoping it'll somehow work out.  It's fucking insane.  He cost us our best chances to win, and now he's costing us our chance to rebuild.  Fuck him twice.

Maybe his kid can give him some sort of disease that could be prevented by immunization.  It's the best way out of his contract that I can see.

[SKO]

But basically Bears fans have lived in horrible jealousy of the fuckheads to the north who have benefitted from two Hall of Fame quarterbacks for twenty years and they make it look so easy and we reach the point where half the fan base (as evidence by our moron friend CFIHP) would rather just tank every year on the off chance of maybe finding one of those transcendent QBs and risk never being competitive again, I guess, rather than watch them try to build a solid roster around Cutler and hope to ride a hot streak to a Flacco or Eli-esque title run, knowing full well the odds are more in favor of another 8-8 dickpunch.

TL, DR: watching too much Aaron Rodgers has definitely ruined the fan base, because we'll never get to have one of those as long as I live and I know it.

The Colts have managed to do the whole tank and draft an elite QB thing twice in my lifetime.  Evaluations of the NFL draft show that the value in the first round is either really early, or really late, but if you're drafting in the middle, any of those picks are basically as good as any other one.

This team had a chance to win a Super Bowl ala the Ravens or Giants for much of the last decade, when it had a very good to dominant defense.  The Giants teams that got there could rush the passer.  The Ravens defense was good.  Even the Steelers defenses in Roethlisberger's Super Bowls was above average.

Going all in on offense now, when you know the defense is going to be awful for some time, doesn't make sense.  Unless 8-8 or a Wild Card flameout is your goal.  Then it makes tons of sense.  Having a QB that could still get a ton out of Forte/Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett while being more consistent than Cutler (the quarter-by-quarter variance in his QB rating each game is mind-boggling most Sundays) and using the resources you'd save to more quickly rebuild the defense makes more sense.

The late and ill-advised throw on the slant was bad.  Throwing to a guy short of the end zone at the end of the first half was bad.  Throwing the ball into the gut of a d-lineman and costing the team a win in Week 1 was really bad.  

It's not just Rodgers that has ruined this fan base.  It's the failure of the team to get someone like Roethlisberger or Eli or Philip Rivers or Brees in that entire decade of opportunity the defense gave them.  They went out and got Cutler, and that ended up both being a mistake (it didn't work), and then they double-downed on that mistake.  The cost in draft picks and salary cap space is significant.  

But hey, he's going to shatter Sid Luckman's record, and he makes some great throws to freaks of nature from time to time....so I should just be overjoyed Cutler is better than the feces that has lined up under center for most of my lifetime and be happy we have him.  QB is the single-most important position in any professional sport today.  I agree that we root for a franchise that will never bless us with a truly elite player at that position.

I held out in turning on Cutler for a long fucking time.  But then I was in Minneosta in 2012, when he threw two awful lazy back-foot INTs that kept that 10 win team from being an 11-win team...and allowed the Vikings to be a 10-win team and edge out the Bears, so they could start Joe Fucking Webb in Green Bay in the wild card round.  That season came down to those two awful balls Jay threw.  Everything else good he did that season - that's what he's supposed to do.  The window closed with those INTs.  And instead of rebuilding in a reasoned and methodical manner, we're throwing tons of money at Cutler hoping it'll somehow work out.  It's fucking insane.  He cost us our best chances to win, and now he's costing us our chance to rebuild.  Fuck him twice.

Maybe his kid can give him some sort of disease that could be prevented by immunization.  It's the best way out of his contract that I can see.

Or they could move on after next year when his dead money for 2016 would be all of three million dollars. Numbers are hard.

[SKO]

The cost in draft picks and salary cap space is significant. 

This is so dumb it hurts.

The cost in draft picks? From four years ago? That were traded by a GM who was notoriously terrible at drafting? There are four Angelo draft picks on the active roster out of ten drafts. You really think those two first round picks they gave up were that valuable? Considering Angelo has said he was going to use one of them on a quarterback (hello, Josh Freeman!) anyway? From a guy whose most successful first round pick was Greg Olsen?

As for the salary cap space? It's actually not significant. His largest cap hit is this year, and I suppose the team could have abandoned Cutler, kept McGowan (who is doing such a bang up job) and spent that money on defensive free agents like the star of the stellar 2014 Saints defense Jairus Byrd, but that's not how rebuilding works, which seems to be thing you're harping on.

So as far as actually rebuilding, which is done through the draft, Cutler is still hurting them....how? In fact, keeping Cutler prevented them from feeling the need to spend a worthwhile top half draft pick on a project QB and allowed them to spend first, second, third, and fourth round picks on defense, on players who have all contributed so far this year. Cutler's hurting that rebuild how? After this year is cap hits drop to an average of about 16 million a year with a salary cap projected to be north of $140 million. By the time Wilson and Luck and Newton get their new deals he'll be lucky to be the 12th or 13th highest paid player at his position, and, as I mentioned, they can move on after next year at the cost of about $5 million scattered over 3 years. It's an easily disposable contract.

I'm also glad that you think the Bears need to tank like the Colts and get a quarterback like Andrew Luck, who has a lower career completion %, YPA, QB Rating (sorry, Pen), and TD% than Jay Cutler (he is first in the NFL in TD passes this year, three ahead of #2, Human Dumpster Fire Jay Cutler). But surely he does a better job than Jay would of winning six games a year vs. the Jaguars and Titans and Texans.

[Brownie]

The Colts have managed to do the whole tank and draft an elite QB thing twice in my lifetime.  Evaluations of the NFL draft show that the value in the first round is either really early, or really late, but if you're drafting in the middle, any of those picks are basically as good as any other one.

Que?







As for the Bears' early top 10 picks in my lifetime, let's see

Cedric Benson (4) 2005
David Terrell (8) 2001
Brian Urlacher (9) 2000
Curtis Enis (5) 1998
Curtis Conway (7) 1993
Mark Carrier (6) 1990
Jim Covert (6) 1983
Jim McMahon (5) 1982
Dan Hampton (4) 1979
Al Harris (9) 1979
Dennis Lick (8) 1976
Walter Payton (4) 1975

Let's see: two Hall of Famers, another (Covert) that would have been had his career been longer, a fourth that will likely be in the Hall of Fame, three guys (Harris, McMahon, and Carrier) that had more than 2 solid seasons for the Bears, and four busts (Enis, Benson, Lick and Terrell).

(Prior to 1975, the last time the Bears drafted anyone worth a shit in the first round was in 1965 when they had the third, fourth and sixth overall picks in which they picked some white guy from Illinois and a RB from Kansas -- don't they know Kansas sucks at football -- and Steve DeLong).

Bears picks 11-20 since 1975:
Kyle Fuller (14) 2014
Kyle Long (20) 2013
Shea McLellin (19) 2012
Chris Williams (14) 2008
Tommie Harris (14) 2004
Michael Haynes (14) 2003
Cade McNown (12) 1999
Walt Harris (13) 1996
John Thierry (11) 1994
Donnell Woolford (11) 1989
Trace Armstrong (12) 1989
Wilber Marshall (11) 1984
Willie Gault (18) 1983
Keith Van Horne (11) 1981
Otis Wilson (19) 1980
Ted Albrecht (15) 1977

Of this group, seven were Pro Bowl caliber for more than a season (Wilson, Van Horne, Marshall, Armstrong, Woolford, Harris, and Harris), two others were starters for multiple years (Albrecht and Gault), four were total busts, and the other three are current starters (McLellin is most likely to slide into the bust department, but Long has been an anchor on the line and Fuller has been promising).
25% busts in the middle of the first vs. 33% in the top of the first.

How about first-round choices between 21-32?

Gabe Carimi (29) 2011
Greg Olsen (31) 2007
Rex Grossman (22) 2003
Marc Colombo (29) 2002
Rashaan Salaam (21) 1995
Alonzo Spellman (22) 1992
Stan Thomas (22) 1991
Brad Muster (23) 1988
Wendell Davis (27) 1988
Jim Harbaugh (26) 1987
Neal Anderson (27) 1986
William Perry (22) 1985

Of this group, 7 (Fridge, Anderson, Pleats, Davis, Muster, Grossman, Olsen) were productive players in some fashion for more than a couple seasons during their pro careers. Olson, Anderson, and Pleats had at least one Pro Bowl caliber season (Pleats did it in Indy a couple years before Peyton Manning began his run, making one wonder if maybe the environs of the Hoosier Dome yield different results than Soldier Field). The other five (Thomas, Spellman, Salaam, Colombo, Carimi) were total busts, even if Spellman was a starter for a couple forgettable years. Perry was a disappointment as he never could keep his weight under control. Wendell Davis was a serviceable starting WR. Brad Muster essentially gave the Bears four more seasons of Matt Suhey Lite. And Rex, like him or not, was the quarterback when they went to a Super Bowl.)

Eh, not much value there. Knock out the Finks era picks, and there's very little.

[Brownie]

First-Round QBs

2014
Blake Bortles (3)
Johnny Manziel (22)
Teddy Bridgewater (31)

2013
E.J. "SKO" Manuel (16)

2012
Andrew Luck (1)
RG III (2)
Ryan Tannehill (8)

2011
Cam Newton (1)
Jake Locker (8)
Blaine Gabbert (10)
Christian Ponder (12)

2010
Sam Bradford (1)
Tim Tebow (25)

2009
Matt Stafford (1)
Mark Sanchez (5)
Josh Freeman (17)

2008
Matt Ryan (3)
Joe Flacco (18)

2007
JaMarcus Russell (1)
Brady Quinn (22)

2006
Vince Young (3)
Matt Leinart (10)
Human Dumpster Fire (11)

2005
Alex Smith (1)
Aaron Rodgers (20 picks after Cedric Benson)
Jason Campbell (25)

2004
Eli Manning (1)
Philip Rivers (4)
Roethlisberger (11)
J.P. Losman (22)

2003
Carson Palmer (1)
Byron Leftwich (7)
Kyle Boller (19)
Rex Grossman (22)

2002
David Carr (1)
Joey Harrington (3)
Patrick Ramsey (32)

2001
Michael Vick (1)

2000
Chad Pennington (18)

1999
Tim Couch (1)
Donovan McNabb (2)
Akili Smith (3)
Daunte Culpepper (11)
Cade McNown (12)

1998
Peyton Manning (1)
Ryan Leaf (2)

1997
Jim Druckenmiller (26)

1995
Steve McNair (3)
Kerry Collins (5)

1994
Heath Shuler (3)
Trent Dilfer (6)

1993
Drew Bledsoe (1)
Rick Mirer (2)

1992
David Klingler (6)
Tommy Maddox (25)

1991
Dan McGwire (16)
Todd Marinovich (24)

1990
Jeff George (1)
Andre Ware (3)

1989
Troy Aikman (1)

1987
Vinny Testaverde (1)
Kelly Stouffer (6)
Chris Miller (13)
Jim Harbaugh (26)

1986
Jim Everett (3)
Chuck Long (12)

1983
John Elway (1)
Todd Blackledge (7)
Jim Kelly (14)
Tony Eason (15)
Ken O'Brien (24)
Dan Marino (27)

Since 1983, 72 QBs have gone in the first round.

Of the 30 guys who went 1-3, are there 12 worth tanking for? To be generous, I'll grant you 12: Elway (shit, was this your other Colts tank job for franchise QB?), Aikman, McNair, Manning, McNabb, Vick, Palmer, Eli Manning, Ryan, Stafford, Newton, Luck).

-Obviously, the tank job the Colts did in 1982 wasn't worth it as they dealt Elway.
-McNair, McNabb, Vick, Palmer, Ryan, and Cam Newton were thrown in charitably. Would you want any of these six over Cutler?
- Eight combined Super Bowl championships among four of them. Not bad.

However, look at that list and see what tanking also can get you. And count the QBs you could say are honestly better than Cutler.

[Brownie]

By my scientific pissed-off-by midnight count, I counted 30 QBs to be "worth a shit" (fuck you SKO stat-faggery and Pen's QB rating) out of 72:
Elway#
Kelly##
O'Brien*
Marino+
Everett*
Testaverde*
Miller*
Harbaugh*
Aikman^
Bledsoe*
McNair*
P. Manning
McNabb*
Culpepper*
Pennington*
Vick*
Palmer*
Grossman*
E. Manning#
Rivers*
Roethliesberger
Rodgers&
Cutler*
Ryan*
Flacco*
Stafford*
Newton*
Luck$
RGIII*
Bridgewater*

*- QBs, that while worth a shit, you'd be criminally insane to even craft an argument that it would be worth it to tank the season to get (21 of those).
^ - While the Cowboys certainly tanked under Tom Landry to get Troy Aikman and Landry was prepared to select him, he and Tex Schram were ousted by Jerry Jones, so the tanking didn't work for management.
#- Refused to play for the tanking team.
##-Initially refused to play for the tanking team, going to the USFL. However, he came crawling back a couple years later, and the Bills tanked some more and added more players, like Bruce Smith and Thurman Thomas.
&- Team did not have to tank to get him, but they had to push out an aging gunslinger to actually play him.
$- Yeah, not really worth tanking for.
+- Yeah, just about the whole NFL could have drafted him.

So, yeah, if you can tank and get Manning or Jim Kelly, go for it. By all means.

[Tonker]

I'll tell you what I'm really enjoying about this season: BC shitting all over my Facebook feed for two hours every Sunday night.

[Richard Chuggar]

There are like fifty more useful stats, all of which would have backed up your point about Jay being a mostly average quarterback in his career to this point, and you choose to emphasize QB rating, which is the dumbest stat of them all. Even when you're right, you are so wrong about how you choose to do it.

And yeah, what Eli said. It's that his highs are so high and his lows are so low that it lends itself to a polarization and each and every throw and game leads to a brand new referendum on whether he's "finally getting it" or "never going to be a winner" instead of just saying "oh, he played well today" or "oh, he fucked up today" and moving on. There are people who want to call it his signature game when he goes off for 176 yards and what was basically just a really nice performance in the red zone and there are people who want to signal him out as the main culprit for losing a game when the defense literally did not stop a single opposing drive.

A lot of it also boils down to the way this entire league is pitched as THE LEAGUE OF ELITE QUARTERBACKING. There's maybe two quarterbacks in the entire league in Rodgers and Peyton who are so productive and so immune to fuckups that they can singlehandedly will their teams to 10 wins minimum a year, and then there are a lot of guys who can do a passable imitation of those two if things break right. Breesus has gone 7-9 or 8-8 multiple times in New Orleans. Philip Rivers was written off for dead before last year. Brady is finally dying and it's glorious. But basically Bears fans have lived in horrible jealousy of the fuckheads to the north who have benefitted from two Hall of Fame quarterbacks for twenty years and they make it look so easy and we reach the point where half the fan base (as evidence by our moron friend CFIHP) would rather just tank every year on the off chance of maybe finding one of those transcendent QBs and risk never being competitive again, I guess, rather than watch them try to build a solid roster around Cutler and hope to ride a hot streak to a Flacco or Eli-esque title run, knowing full well the odds are more in favor of another 8-8 dickpunch.

TL, DR: watching too much Aaron Rodgers has definitely ruined the fan base, because we'll never get to have one of those as long as I live and I know it.

So, it's a good stat until it isn't?

The last time (Jay Cutler played the Saints) he threw for 350+ yards and had a passer rating of over 100

He (Carson Palmer) went from an 8-13 ratio with a 69.5 rating when I said that (something brilliant, no doubt) to 16:9 with a 96.5 rating in his last 9.

(Talking about Erik Kramer for some reason) 1993-1995 though he had a 45:21 ratio, 91.2 rating, 61.2% completions

So basically if McCown repeats anything close to last year (worth noting a 90+ passer rating would be more than 10 points below what he managed last year, so I gave him some leeway, he'd basically be the first guy to ever really repeat a "breakout" season at such a late age.

Gannon had three seasons before his 90+ rating season at age 35 where he took at least 200 attempts and had a rating over 80

I can't imagine any other weak armed backup with a 68.6 QB rating getting this much attention if his own fanbase hadn't spent two years saying he was a leader and not a glory boy showboat like RGIII and was the rightful starter

I guess the question is whether you place all of the emphasis on his (Cutler's) very encouraging 96.5 rating and 16-9 ratio in the last nine games or if you look at his kind of turd-like first 7 games

I'm saying judging jay's entire future based on a game where he was down 14-0 and 21-0 before he could even take a breath is absurd, when he's finished with a passer rating of 100+ in his last three full starts before that. I mean, his body of work is what it is

again, Cutler's passer rating in the 8 games he actually finished is 93.3, and he's faced defenses ranked 16th or better in 6 of those games. McCown played 1 defense in the top 20, and scored 13 points

If Cutler had put up a 75.0 Passer rating in the Lovie Era there'd be no defending him.

There were roughly 10000 more, but I got bored.

OH SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Slaky]

I must have clicked on this thread a dozen times today.

I wasn't disappointed.

I was.

[R-V]

then they double-downed on that mistake

Even Huey can laugh at this one.

[PenFoe]

Well, I definitely got my quarter's worth.

Is there a thread for your favorite team somewhere that I could read every day waiting for something to seize upon even though I don't actually care about that team or what's being said?  Thanks in advance.

Sterling makes a reasonable point.

I'm a Cubs fan who's not a Bears fan.  So, this is how I have to get entertainment round these parts during football season.

You want to start a Steelers thread, I'll be there.

[Bort]

I must have clicked on this thread a dozen times today.

I wasn't disappointed.

I was.

*searches in vain for button to like or fave this*

[PenFoe]

2015 Draft will be held in Chicago.

[SKO]

2015 Draft will be held in Chicago.

Hundreds of Bears fans show up for round 1 only to be disappointed when Emery trades down from pick 32 and DEN BLOWS A PICK in da secont rount on a player dat Hub had as a turd rounder before da combine.

[Quality Start Machine]

I've been to a few NFL drafts. Think of a room full of guys who make SKO look like he has only a passing interest in football, while they all have only a passing interest in personal hygeine.