Playoff Previews

American League Division Series

Boston Red Sox v. Chicago White Sox
Game one: Boston at Chicago, Tuesday, October 4, 3 p.m., ESPN, Desipio GameCast
Game two: Boston at Chicago, Wednesday, October 5, 6 p.m., ESPN
Game three: Chicago at Boston, Friday, October 7, 3 p.m, ESPN2, Desipio GameCast
Game four: Chicago at Boston, TBD
Game five: Boston at Chicago, TBD

On Wednesday, Jay Mariotti put down the doughnut to declare that the White Sox would not win another game this season. They went 5-0. That same day, I decided to play along and said that the Indians wouldn’t lose another game. They went 1-4. See, I was much closer than Jay.

So the White Sox are armed with confidence, some momentum and the belief that there is no pressure on them now. No one expects them to win. Well, guess what? There is pressure. As soon as the first pitch flies tomorrow afternoon the pressure is right back on them.

What we do know is that the Sox feel pressure. From September 8 until the day they clinched they went 8-12. Then when the pressure was really off they won their final three.

The last time they played the Red Sox they lost two of three. The last time they played the Yankees they lost two of three. The last time they played the Angels they lost all three. That makes them 2-7 in their last nine games against the only other American League teams left.

In game one tomorrow they’ll get Matt Clement, who went 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA after the All-Star break. Before the break he was 10-2 with a 3.85 ERA.

This reminds Cubs’ fans a little of the way he started to wobble at the end of 2003, when he followed up a 7-4, 3.12 July-August with a 2-1, 4.45 September, highlighted by his first good start of the month in the Cubs’ clincher against Pissburgh in game two of that Saturday doubleheader.

He pitched poorly in his one NLDS start when he lost to the Braves and gave up four runs in 4 2/3 in game four. But he also won game four of the NLCS when he held the Marlins to three runs in 7 2/3. That’s the last time a Chicago team won a playoff game.

He’ll go up against Jose Contreras in game one, and Jose has spent his brief Major League career getting lit up by the Red Sox.

The reason the Sox have a better than average chance in this series is that they have almost no chance against a team with good pitching. They just don’t hit very well. But they do have a chance against a team with bad pitching, because their pitching will keep them in games. The Red Sox have bad pitching. They have the fourth worst ERA in the American League. They have a hole in their bullpen you could drive the bullpen car through (if anybody still had a bullpen car).

So all you have to do is get Johnny Damon, Big Papi and Manny Ramirez out, get into their bullpen before they can use Mike Timlin and you’ve got them. Sounds easy, right?

What you don’t want to do is lose game one or two, though. The Red Sox won’t lose at Fenway very often in the playoffs, if at all. Go up 2-0 you’ve got a shot. Go to Boston 1-1 and you’ll be home Saturday night.

Desipio Fearless Prediction: White Sox in five.

New York Yankees v. Anaheim Angels
Game one: New York at Anaheim, Tuesday, October 4, 7 p.m., Fox
Game two: New York at Anaheim, Wednesday, October 5, 9 p.m., ESPN
Game three: Anaheim at New York, Friday, October 7, 7 p.m, Fox
Game four: Anaheim at New York, Saturday, October 8, TBD
Game five: New York at Anaheim, Sunday, October 9, TBD

While all the talk about the Yankees has been how they seem to finally have the “real” Randy Johnson, and that Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon are playing well, and they’ve won 16 of their last 21, people seem to forget that Anaheim has won 14 of 16. These Angels are good.

They don’t hit as well as the ones who won the World Series (and oh, by the way, beat the Yankees in the ALDS), but they have something they didn’t have that year. Vlad Guerrero.

While it’s true that the Yankees have a ludicrously good and deep lineup, the Angels have a deeper bullpen, a leadoff guy who will run all over Jorge Posada and better starting pitchers.

This should be the best of the four first-round series. The question for the Angels will be if Garrett Anderson is healthy enough to contribute. If he is, they’ll win. The question for the Yankees is “What does Matt Lawton do?” No, wait, it’s can anybody other than Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera get somebody out from the bullpen. If somebody steps up, they’ll win.

Ooh, the intrigue.

Desipio Fearless Prediction: Angels in five.

National League Division Series

San Diego Padres v. St. Louis Cardinals
Game one: San Diego at St. Louis, Tuesday, October 4, noon, ESPN, Desipio GameCast
Game two: San Diego at St. Louis, Thursday, October 6, 3 p.m., ESPN2, Desipio GameCast
Game three: St. Louis at San Diego, Saturday, October 8, TBD
Game four: St. Louis at San Diego, Sunday, October 9, TBD
Game five: San Diego at St. Louis, Monday, October 10, TBD

This should be a whitewash. The Cardinals have the best record in the National League and the Padres tied the 1973 Mets for worst record for a postseason qualifier at 82-80. The Cardinals spent the last two months getting ready for the playoffs, the Padres spent them trying to get over .500.

It’s hard to remember that when the Cubs went into San Diego at the beginning of June that the Padres were red hot and had the second best record in baseball. The Cubs swept them, and the Padres went into a tailspin. It didn’t help that Jake Peavy was sick and missed a few starts then was weak in a couple more.

What’s interesting is that given the way this series is laid out, Peavy could be the difference. He’ll pitch game one tomorrow, then Wednesday is a day off, game two is Thursday, Friday is a day off and game three is Saturday. If needed, Peavy could pitch games one and three on three day’s rest. As it is, he’ll be able to pitch game four on regular rest.

San Diego won four of the seven matchups between the teams during the season. The Cardinals’ pitching has gone in the tank in September, their offense consists of Albert Pujols, a dwarf, a gay centerfielder, two injured corner outfielders and a bunch of guys who have never hit when it counts. The Genius loves his bullpen and right now he’s without Al Reyes who sprained his elbow yesterday, and Jason Isringhausen has been up and down all year.

Smells like an upset, right?

We’d love it to be true. But…

Desipio Fearless Prediction: Cardinals in four.

Houston Astros v. Atlanta Braves
Game one: Houston at Atlanta, Wednesday, October 5, 3 p.m., ESPN, Desipio GameCast
Game two: Houston at Atlanta, Thursday, October 6, 7 p.m., Fox
Game three: Atlanta at Houston, Saturday, October 8, TBD
Game four: Atlanta at Houston, Sunday, October 9, TBD
Game five: Houston at Atlanta, Monday, October 10, TBD

The Cubs, playing at about half power and as always at half speed just won four of the seven games they played against Houston in the last week. This is a Cubs’ team that can hardly get out of its own way against an Astros team that was playing for their lives. The only games the Astros won included a) Corey Patterson’s near drowning in centerfield on a “triple”, b) Bob Super Novoa crapping his pants on the mound and c) the Daily Double of Patterson-Macias.

Oh, and five of those seven games were pitched by guys named Pettitte (2), Oswalt (2), and Clemens (1). So just how much confidence are we supposed to have in the Astros now?

Actually, baseball’s a funny game. For whatever reason, the Cubs love to hit Brad Lidge. They got him on Friday and nearly got him again yesterday. This is a team that can’t hit Josh Fogg, but they can hit Brad Lidge.

It’s all about matchups. It’s why the Padres stand a chance in St. Louis.

It’s true that the starting pitching matchups look like they’ll be close. Pettitte versus John Smoltz. Clemens v. Tim Hudson. Roy Oswalt versus Jorge Sosa. OK, not that one.

For all of their in-season excellence the Braves have earned their reputation as post-season flops the hard way. This is a team who lost in the postseason in back-to-back seasons to teams managed by Dusty Baker. Even they can lose back-to-back series to Phil Garner.

Desipio Fearless Prediction: Astros in four.