Just a week away from the start of the 2009 season it’s time for the ninth annual (no, seriously the ninth) Desipio MLB Preview.  Today we start with the American League.  You know the one, the league where the pitchers don’t bat, there are only 14 teams and the best player is out for six weeks when he blew out a hip after making out with himself in the mirror.

This year’s preview is going to be a little bit different.  Sure, we’ll give you the projected finish of each team and undertake the folly of telling you how the playoffs will play out, but this year we’ve got a tremendous scientific formula to back up all of our dubious claims.

Perfected by the math whizzes who brought you the infamous HWEqBA (the Hank White Equivalent Batting Average) which gave us the first truly accurate measurement of a hitter’s ability, this year we turn to the team-centered Barely Average Knowledge Optimizer, or BAKO.

BAKO takes into effect things like runs scored versus runs allowed, the general GRITtiness of the club, whether or not they have a Judy hitting lefty backup catcher, how many toothpicks the manager goes through in a week and much more.  I could go into the rest of intricacies of the formula, but then someone would just try to steal it.

The true test will come at the end of the season, when you can take these BAKO projections and compare them to the actual standings.

I think you’ll be surprisingly underwhelmed.

American League East

Boston Red Sox
2009 BAKO: 97-65, 1st Place

The Red Sox fell just one game short of a chance to defend their 2007 World Championship, and bring back last year’s team almost entirely intact.  The big news last year was when they dumped a pouting Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers and replaced him with a Pirate (not the ghey swashbuckling kind, one from Pissburgh).  Not only did the move completely screw the Cubs in the playoffs, but the Red Sox didn’t make any offseason moves to really bolster their offense, meaning even more is expected of Jason Bay.

The last time a Canadian was asked to carry this much of a load in anything this important was Alan Thicke in Growing Pains.  Does that make Dustin Pedroia the obviously gay younger son and Jacoby Ellsbury the anorexic sister?

This year we’ve enlisted help from around the Interwebs to sum up our picks.  Our special thanks in advance to Peter Gammons*, Phil Rogers**, the experts at the four-letter messageboard*** and the Sports Guy****.

(* – Our lawyers have advised us to explain that Peter Gammons, Phil Rogers and Sports Guy cannot legally participate in these selections without breaching their contracts with ESPN, Boys Life, and ESPN.com respectively, as for the four-letter?  Nobody gives a shit where they comment.)

Peter Gammons – If you ask anybody in the league they’ll tell you that you cannot watch Justin Masterson pitch without drawing comparsions to the latest Ani DeFranco album.

Phil Rogers – The Red Sox additions of the Rocco Baldelli and Mark Kotsay to an already all-white outfield of Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and JD Drew makes you wonder if all of the progress made since the gritty debut of Pumpsie Green in 1959 has been lost.

Four letter – Honestly, if they needed outfielders, why not Adam Dunn?  Seriously!  Whatever!

Sports Guy – Like J-Bug and I were talking about with our friends Sal and Ace, this offseason had all of the promise of David Silver’s rap career.

Tampa Bay Rays
2009 BAKO : 94-68, 2nd Place, Wild Card

The Rays had been a punchline for all of their existence until last year, when they inexplicably went from doormat to pennant winner.  The scary part is that when you look at their stats, they didn’t get a truly career year out of anyone last year.  When the Yankees loaded up in the offseason it looked like Tampa would have to settle for third place, but A-Rod’s hip injury and the inability of Joe Girardi to figure out how to use his outfielders has the door open for Tampa.  They sent playoff hero David Price to AAA to start the season, which seems curious, but they should be bolstered by the continued development of third baseman Evan Longoria and right fielder BJ Upton, as well as one of the deepest pitching staffs in the big leagues.

Peter Gammons – Northeastern educated Carlos Pena still reads Physics textbooks on the team plane just for fun.  Last year, when the pilot, copilot and navigator (as well as many of the passengers) suffered food poisoning from some bad fish, Pena successfully landed the plane himself at O’Hare Airport.

Phil Rogers – The Rays added Pat Burrell to their lineup, but they’ll miss the grittiness of Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd.  I’d say that’s a minus one.

Four letter – Pat Burrell?  What?  Why not Adam Dunn!  Hah hah!  Losers.

Sports Guy – I went to a Tampa game with my buddy Stoner and there was nobody there.  It was a like a Yanni concert without Yanni.

New York Yankees
2009 BAKO: 88-74, 3rd Place

The Yankees missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 1994, mostly because their pitching was terrible.

In the offseason they added CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, and would have completed the initials trifecta if RA Dickey hadn’t played hardball with their free agent offer.  Their problems are not all solved.  Their bullpen is still leaky until you get to Mariano Rivera, they’re trying to make a starter out of Joba Chamberlain without him throwing 180 innings and if your best outfield is one of Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner and Xavier Nady you’re probably looking at a third place finish in the Pacific Coast League, much less the AL East.

Peter Gammons – I still have a Ziploc bag of Johnny Damon’s hair in my house.

Phil Rogers – They needed pitching and they signed the best free agent pitcher, I think they’ll win 127 games.

Four letter – Sabathia?  Ned Yost made him throw 440 pitches in that one start against St. Louis.  We’d rather have Erik Bedard.

Sports Guy – Cobra Kai signed 300 million worth of players in the offseason?  They still have to find a way to fit all of those egos into that dojo.

Toronto Blue Jays
2009 BAKO: 79-83, 4th place

Prior to the last year, with the Yankees looking vulnerable, the chic pick for second place was Toronto.  They had a solid rotation, backed by one of the game’s best, Roy Halladay.  They had an improving offense and nobody had punched their manager since Ted Lilly left for Chicago the year before.  But the Rays struggled early, fired that manager and brought back the rotting corpse of Cito Gaston and never could recover.

AJ Burnett turned one healthy year into a huge contract with the Yankees, and Scott Rolen was (gasp!) hurt most of the year, but he’s back so one slot on the DL is already filled.  There’s still some talent, like Halladay and the up and down Vernon Wells, and keep an eye on rookie slugger Travis Snider, but all in all…2009 is going to suck for them.

Peter Gammons – I like what the Jays did by bringing back Cito Gaston.  More teams should turn to successful former managers when things go bad.  I’d like to see the Mets give Davey Johnson another shot, and maybe it’s finally time for Harvey Kuenn to get another crack at it in Milwaukee.

Phil Rogers – The Blue Jays haven’t had a rookie of the year since former Andy MacPhail draft pick Eric Hinske.  I think they really miss Eric Hinske.

Four letter – Serves them right for sucking, remember how mean their general manager was to Adam Dunn last year?

Sports Guy – My buddy Hench and I like to talk with really funny Canadian accents sometimes.  Eh?

Baltimore Orioles
2009 BAKO: 66-96, 5th Place

When you look at the Orioles roster it’s tempting to just laugh hysterically at all of the failed Cubs prospects (or just failed Cubs) they are hoarding.  But come on, I mean the temptation to build a team around talent like Felix Pie, Luis Montanez (now going by the hilarious Lou Montanez), Cesar Izturis, Rich Hill, etc., is just too much to ignore.

That the Orioles really think that MacPhail, a man who proved to be nothing more than a sychophantic kiss ass to his bosses in Chicago without the stones to ever “go for it” with a trade or a signing, is laughable.  The Orioles are not completely devoid of talent.  Adam “Don’t call me Pac Man” Jones is raw, but good, Nick Markakis is a nice player, Brian Roberts is really good player (albeit one who should have been traded given his age and the stage of the Baltimore’s rebuilding) and rookie catcher Matt Wieters is by all accounts the real deal.  But the pitching is bad and not all that promising.  They also reside in the AL East, which means under their current management, they are screwed.

Peter Gammons – Ask anybody in baseball and they’ll tell you that nobody gave a lap dance like Andy MacPhail’s mom.

Phil Rogers – The Cubs gave up on Luis Montanez way too soon, and the scrappy guy proved it by tearing up the AL with a .295 average in 38 games after spending only eight full years in the minors.

Four letter – There’s a guy on their messageboad named Big Bird and he’s a meanie!

Sports Guy – I was the first guy to realize how good The Wire was (it’s based in Baltimore) just six years after the first episode aired.

American League Central

Minnesota Twins
2009 BAKO: 90-72, 1st Place

The Twins were in the driver’s seat last year after humiliating the White Sox late in the season in a four game series at the Metrodome, but they faltered late against the pesky Royals, and ended up stuck in a play-in game at Comiskey, a game they lost 1-0.

This year, the young Twins pitching staff is a year older, and their ace, Francisco Liriano is ready for his first full season after his surgery to correct Tommy John Disease in his left elbow.  They also added former White Sock Joe Crede (who will be good for about a month before his back locks up for good on the Metrodome artificial turf.)

Truth is, the Twins look like the best of a flawed bunch in the division.  But they’ve got enough holes to make you doubt them, too.  Especially given that Joe Mauer has a bad back.  If Mauer misses a significant amount of time, the White Sox or Indians probably finish ahead of Minnesota.

Peter Gammons – The Twins ability to field fundamentally sound teams every year is a testament to Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva.

Phil Rogers – The pirahnas, as Ozzie Guillen calls them, are a team built to play small ball and to chew on your ankles when you lead off first base.

Four letter – Jason Kubel is so much better than Alfonso Soriano it’s not even funny.

Sports Guy – The Metrodome’s overrated, the Pats have never won a Super Bowl there.  Yet.

Cleveland Indians
2009 BAKO: 85-77, 2nd Place

Two years ago the Indians were one good start from either Fausto Carmona or CC Sabathia away from the World Series. They didn’t get either and after last year’s injury filled abomination of a season that seems like it never was reality.

Carmona had a lousy 2008, and while Cliff Lee was the Cy Young winner, the Indians pitching as a whole was terrible.  It probably didn’t matter given the injuries the offense suffered to key guys like Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner.

In the offseason, their approach seemed to be to get Cubs players who were cool, and now Mark DeRosa will play third base for them and Kerry Wood will close.  That’s great, except that DeRosa’s offense isn’t suited to a corner and Wood, as much as we love him, has no chance of making it through the season in one piece.

You could argue that the Indians infield is arranged in the worst defensive alignment possible.  While DeRosa is an excellent defensive third baseman he’d be their best defensive option at second.  Asdrubal Cabrera is a natural shortstop and struggles with the pivot at second and Jhonny Peralta is more than just a tall guy with an H placed wrongly in his first name, he’s too slow to play short.  A defense with DeRosa at second, Cabrera at short and Peralta at third probably makes the most sense.  But you won’t see it.

Peter Gammons – Anybody who knows how big DeRosa’s heart is probably wasn’t surprised that doctors had to remove 47 percent of it in spring training last year.

Phil Rogers – Adding DeRosa and Wood while not giving up any of their best players is a big plus two for the Indians!

Four letter – I can’t believe Hendry is so dumb.  He traded The Pulse!  You don’t do that.  When I found out that they traded him on New Year’s Eve I was so mad I dismembered one of my Care Bears and called my aunt to cancel our dinner date.

Sports Guy – You know what never made sense?  Why Eddie Harris never got suspended for putting Vagisil on the ball.

Chicago White Sox
2009 BAKO: 83-79, 3rd Place

You have to give Sox GM Kenny Williams credit, he’s not a guy who confuses activity with accomplishment.  Every year he makes a lot of moves, and has very little chance of them accomplishing anything.  The guy who accidentally built an alleged World Champion in 2005 (he claimed to build the team around speed even though they won with homers and starting pitching) is still trying to find “grinders” to play for him.

The Sox enter the season with nobody to play second, center or third, and have done nothing to address the rapid aging of their players at first, catcher and in right.  That said, the starting pitching is pretty solid, and the bullpen is so good that Joe Morgan says they’re the best he’s ever seen.  Of course, Joe has had a lot of head trauma over the years.

The Sox are so excited about moving Alexei Ramirez from second to short that profane little manager Ozzie Guillen said that “When yous sees this fucker play fucking shortstop, you’re going to fucking forget that Ozzie Fucking Guillen played goddamned shortstop for the Fuck Sox.”  Wait, you used to play?

Peter Gammons – While a lot of players in his era were using steroids, Bobby Jenks refused to give in and do it.  He was so against cheating that he got drunk during games to make it even harder for him to pitch.  Now that’s a grinder.

Phil Rogers – Whatever Ozzie says I laugh at.  I have no idea what he’s saying, and frankly, he scares me.

Four letter – My girlfriend gained so much weight that the only thing I could find in her size for Christmas was a Konerko jersey.

Sports Guy – I’m not going to say that Jose Contreras is old, but he had dinner in Havana with Hyman Roth.

Kansas City Royals
2009 BAKO: 77-85, 4th Place

The Royals are kind of an “in” pick for this season, and while I think they are getting better, I’m like Shooter’s kid in Hoosiers “I’m not seeing it.”  Alex Gordon is slowly improving at third, Billy Butler’s a bat without a position, Coco Crisp isn’t that good, Mike Aviles played on the Puerto Rican national team because his wife is Puerto Rican, and they thought bringing in Ron Mahay was a good thing.

It’s a bad sign when your farm system can’t produce a first base prospect good enough to keep your GM from taking for Mike Jacobs.  Plus, their pitching is still lacking.

I think they’re heading in the right direction, but they’re not moving all that fast.

Peter Gammons – Ask anybody in the league and they will tell you that the most fun you can have during batting practice is running naked through the centerfield fountain at Kaufmann Stadium.  At least, I had a lot of fun when I did it.

Phil Rogers – True story.  I got the shits so bad after eating at Arthur Bryant’s Bar B Que in KC one year that I refused to vote for Carlos Beltran for Rookie of the Year.

Four letter – Billy Butler is awesome.  He’s so much better than Alfonso Soriano.

Sports Guy – I don’t know if you’ve ever seen him, but I have and I’m making Trey Hillman the manager of the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars.

Detroit Tigers
2009 BAKO: 65-97, 5th Place

Here’s how you can tell you are in for a long year.  The week before the season opens you put one of your starting pitchers on the DL with anxiety disorder.

When you couple that with the fact that your manager has always had a hard time managing teams that aren’t very good and the people who ought to be suffering the anxiety disorder are the owner and the GM.  As in, “Oh my god, we are gonna suck!  We are gonna suck!  Oh my god!  Oh my god!”

On the bright side, if they’d switch back to this logo, I’d buy a couple of t-shirts.  That ought to help, right?

Peter Gammons – Ask anybody in baseball and they’ll tell you that the two best things about a trip to Detroit are getting to chat with Al Kaline and all the crazy bread you can eat in the press box.

Phil Rogers – The Tigers have six guys on their everyday lineup who can hit 30 homers, Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames.  They’re going to win the World Series.

Four letter – The Cubs should have traded for Miguel Cabrera, but Jim Hendry’s too dumb to do it.  Plus, he ruined Rich Hill or we could have traded him for Cabrera!

Sports Guy – Every time I watch Beverly Hills Cop and realize that Jenny Summers wants to do it with Axel Foley but he doesn’t, it proves that Eddie Murphy is gay.

American League West

Anaheim Angels
2009 BAKO: 96-66, 1st Place

Few teams have the kind of tormented playoff history that the Angels do.  They were famous for epic collapses in the ’80s, one so bad that Donnie Moore took his own life because of his role in it.  They blew a huge lead in 1995 and lost the division to the Mariners in a play-in game.  They’ve been a perennial playoff team in the ’00s, and one ended because AJ Eyechart pretended to reach on a dropped third strike, and the rest seem to end because the Red Sox enjoy humiliating them.

However, there’s a big difference between the Angels and say a team like the Cubs.  The Angels won the World Series in 2002 in epic fashion, winning games six and seven in comeback fashion over Dusty Baker’s (‘nuf said) Giants.  If not for that comeback, just think of all of the money Phil Rogers could have made with a book about the Curse of Wrigley Field.

The Cubs had a Pacific Coast League team in Los Angeles for years and they traded it to Walter O’Malley of the Dodgers for the Fort Worth franchise in the Texas League.  Just like in Chicago, the Wrigley family had named the park after themselves.  The Dodgers never played in Wrigley Field west, they just needed it to give them the territorial rights to move their franchise to LA.  But in 1961 the expansion Angels played a season there.  Until 2002 no team who had ever played home games in “Wrigley Field” had ever won a World Series (the Cubs world championships in 1907 and 1908 were pre-Wrigley Field Chicago).

Even though the Angels let free agent first baseman Mark Texiera sign with the Yankees, they still have the best team in the division.  Then again, look at the division.  How much would that take?

Peter Gammons – If you put a cowboy hat and a pair of jeans that are way too tight on Mike Scioscia he’d look just like Garth Brooks, and I’ll bet he would cut an album that would make millions for the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation.

Phil Rogers – Wait, what about Wrigley Field?

Four letter – Nick Adenhart is so cool that I think there’s milk in my pants!

Sports Guy – I heard that the Angels play in OC and I went to a game there because I figured Olivia Wilde and Mischa Barton would be making out.

[Youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twRgORnYtek]

Oakland A’s
2009 BAKO: 81-81, 2nd Place

The job Billy Beane has done in his years as GM in Oakland is really remarkable.  You figure that a team in a small market with limited resources has made the playoffs five times this decade, and you have to be impressed.

Usually when Beane makes a bold move like he did this offseason to bring in an expensive player like Matt Holiday you figure he knows he’s in position to win again.  Maybe he is, but I don’t see it.  Not with a starting rotation that will have at least two of Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Dallas Braden heavily involved.

Then again, maybe the plan is to flip Holliday at the deadline for more than the A’s gave up to get him?

Whatever the plan, rest assured it does not involve copious amounts of Eric Patterson or Mike Wuertz.

Peter Gammons – When Billy Beane calls me and says, “Hey Peter it’s the best looking general manager in the game” I immediately forget and think I’m talking to Gord Ash.

Phil Rogers – The Cubs trade for Jason Kendall in 2007 was a huge risk.  First they failed to resign Kendall who was a key part of the Brewers wild card team in 2008 and second they gave up Jerry Blevins, who won’t be wearing a Cubs cap in his Hall of Fame plaque now.

Four letter – The A’s traded Matt Murton?  Billy Beane sucks.

Sports Guy – They’re making a  book movie out of Moneyball and Brad Pitt is going to play Billy Beane.  I wonder who’s going to play Art Howe.  Probably Dennis Haysbert.

Texas Rangers
2009 BAKO: 74-88, 3rd Place

Because the Ballpark in Arlington is such a good place to hit, and because Rangers hitting coach Rudy Jaramillio is so respected, players who put up huge numbers in Texas are always met with some skepticism when they move on to other teams.  That happened to Mark DeRosa when he signed to play with the Cubs starting in 2007, but that worked out and it’s happening now to Milton Bradley.

Maybe it is because of the hitter happy nature of the Ballpark that the Rangers do such a shit job of evaluating pitchers.  In the last two offseasons they have traded away first John Danks to the White Sox and last year Edinson Volquez to the Reds.  Given their evident need for pitching, why would they do either?

And historically it’s been the case.  Consider in 1989 they carelessly gave away Paul Kilgus and Steve Wilson to the Cubs?  (Actually they got Jamie Moyer in that deal and couldn’t get rid of him fast enough.  They released him in 1990.)

Whatever the case, they can’t judge pitching and it’s why they sucked last year and it’s why they’ll suck this year and it’s probably why they’ll suck next year.

Peter Gammons – Everybody in baseball knows that nobody makes better nacho dip than Rangers first base coach Gary Pettis.

Phil Rogers – Josh Hamilton’s comeback from drug problems is a great story, much better than a player making it by not first becoming addicted to drugs.

Four letter – Jim Hendry picked Josh Hamilton in the Rule V draft two years ago and gave him away to the Reds. He’s so dumb.  I hope he falls down the stairs again!

Sports Guy – I like the Rangers this year, what position does Chuck Norris play?

Seattle Mariners
2009 BAKO: 68-94, 4th Place

The Mariners have put their rebuilding hopes in the hands of a guy that a Scrabble champ would have a hard time spelling, Jack Zduriencik. But it’s not a bad bet.  Jack was the mastermind behind the drafts in the ’00s that stocked the Brewers farm system.

His first move was to hire Don Wakamatsu as manager, a move that was done to make Seattle sportswriters go “Why can’t I spell any of these fucking names?”

All of the faith that Mariners fans had in Jack and Don should have gone out of the window in January when they traded for Ronny Cedeno.  I mean really.

It seems ludicrous now, but people actually picked the Mariners to win the West last year.  This was after they picked up Erik Bedard in the offseason.  We know how that turned out.

This year nobody’s picking them to do anything.

This time, they’re right.

Peter Gammons – Junior Griffey’s return to Seattle is huge to the community.  Not only will he help bring fans back to Safeco Field, but when he left in 1999 he had forgotten to return a copy of Final Fantasy VII to his local Blockbuster and the overdue fees of $12,314.27 will be a boon to the local economy.

Phil Rogers – I think it was a mistake to pick Zduriencik over a guy like Ed Lynch.  First, Zduriencik has less experience than Lynch and Lynch is a lot easier to spell.

Four letter – Griffey?  Why not Adam Dunn?  Hah hah!

Sports Guy – One cure for the lack of athleticism in the Mariners system could be the arrival of six of Shawn Kemp’s sons in the Seattle high school system in 2012.

Coming up next: The National League preview.