Cubs Preview – Expectations

With more than a couple of weeks to go before the Cubs open the season in Anaheim, there’s still plenty of time to preview the individual position groups.  But before we start dissecting the deepest roster in baseball, it’s time to take the necessary detour, and descend into the madness.

Every year for decades, almost exclusively without reason, we have deluded ourselves into thinking that IF everything broke just right that the Cubs might finally win the whole fucking thing.

There is no need to use your delusions this year.  You don’t need a fifth of Johnnie Walker and four hours of staring at a baseball preview magazine to convince yourself it might happen.

Because this year, it really might happen.

So before we get to the burning questions like, “Is the Cubs infield the best ever?”  Or, “Can we really count on Jason Hammel to go more than two innings in any important start?” Let’s tackle the biggest issue the Cubs face heading into 2016.

The general belief that they can win the World Series.

Oh, and by the way the answers to those first two questions are both no.

This is, of course, how this is supposed to work.  It’s very rare in sports, but especially in baseball, for a team to come out of nowhere and win a World Series.  It has happened, but usually the team that ends up winning, started the season with most people believing they were going to be pretty good.

That’s where the Cubs will start the 2016 season.  They are a team that won 97 games last year and directly addressed two of their biggest weaknesses in free agency.  They needed more good hitters who didn’t strike out so much, and they needed more depth in starting pitching.

Their best players are all young and in parts of their careers where they should be still improving.  They have a great manager.  They have a great front office.  They have money to spend and prospects to trade to fill in holes that inevitably develop during a long season.

Their biggest handicap appears to be this:

They are the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs never win.  They are losers.  Lovable.  But losers, still.  Something ludicrous will happen and they will lose in a horrific and permanently scarring fashion.

We know this to be true because the media and the St. Louis Cardinals ceaselessly remind anyone within earshot of it.

You and I know that it’s all bullshit.

What’s refreshing is that last year, while those same “experts” waited for the young Cubs to falter, the general feeling the Cubs players gave off was, “We don’t know, and we don’t care.”

And then, they proved it.  They had to go to Pissburgh for the Wild Card game, and face Gerrit Cole.  Sure, the Cubs had the luxury of sending the world’s best pitcher last year to start the game, but it was the Pirates who cracked, not the Cubs.  Dexter Fowler hit a homer.  Kyle Schwarber hit one into the river.  Sean Rodriguez beat up a Gatorade cooler after the Pirates tried to start a fight with Jake Arrieta.

Then it was off to St. Louis, where the Fighting Yadi’s were just waiting to smack the Cubs back into what they believe is their rightful place.  The Cubs dropped the opener in the fetid fall air of Bus(c)h Stadium–a huge hurdle in any five game series.

But then the Yadi’s imploded in game two.  Their pitcher, suffering from the “flu”, crapped his pants at least figuratively if not literally, and the Cardinals couldn’t field a bunt.  Twice.

When the scene shifted to the most raucous Wrigley Field has been since the invention of the horseless carriage, the Cubs bludgeoned the Cardinals so thoroughly, St. Louis ended up in the stone age…which for them, is progress.

In game three the Cubs were the first team in playoff history to have their second through seventh place hitters all homer in the same game.  In game four, the Cardinals tied it in the sixth and Wrigley started to get a little uneasy, so Anthony Rizzo ripped an 0-2 pitch into the bleachers.  An inning later, Schwarber hit one off the Torco sign and onto the top of the video board in right field.

For the first time ever, the Cubs celebrated a playoff series victory at Wrigley.

(That stat seems more impressive until you realize this was only the fourth playoff series in the 140 year history of the team that they’ve won.  Fourth!)

And the Cardinals had to stand there and watch it.  Oh, it was delicious.

Even when they failed in the NLCS it lacked the signature moment of a ball rolling through Leon Durham’s legs, or one hitting a rock and bouncing over Ryne Sandberg, or clanking off of Alex Gonzalez or a guy in a green turtleneck and headphones.

What sucked about the sweep to the Mets wasn’t just that they fell four wins short of the pennant.  What really sucked was that it was over.  The 2015 Cubs were just, plain, fun.  Everything about them made you happy to see them when they ran on the field.

They didn’t care about black cats, or Bartman, or nine game playoff losing streaks.  They had a game to play that night and they’d just worry about winning that one.  It was up to us to supply the pathos, and they were too busy to pay much attention to it.

They celebrated every win, all season long, with a disco ball, smoke machine and a dance party.  The only difference in the playoffs was that they got to bring booze back out onto the field to share with us.

So what’s different about this year?  Well, they are better.  They are not without holes, but take their roster and compare it to every other team in baseball and see if you can find one you’d trade it for.

The biggest difference this year is that there are actual expectations.  That’s not something Cubs fans have much practice dealing with, and the few times it’s happened, it’s gone poorly.

The first injury, or four game losing streak, or player slump will send the fanbase and the media into full panic mode.

History says that at least one, probably two and quite possibly all three of the free agents will get off to bad starts.  It’s the Cubs Way.

Let’s try not to lose our shit.

Baseball seasons are long.  A great start is no guarantee of a great finish, any more than a lousy start inevitably leads to a lousy finish.

Here’s what we can safely assume about our heroes.  They’re going to mash the shit out of the baseball.  They’re going to have options if any of their pitching goes south.  They’re going to play better defense (because honestly, they could hardly play it any worse than they did the first four months of last year.)

But here’s what we know, because we saw it every day last year.  They are going to scratch, and claw, and fight their way through every game.  If they fall behind, they’ll bludgeon their way back into it.  All those walk-off wins last year were a product of guys who didn’t give up at bats and an offense that put the fear of a three run homer into the other team before the two baserunners had even reached.

It would be great to guarantee that this team was going to outclass the rest of the division straight into the playoffs.  But in life there are no guarantees.

But there’s this.  They don’t just have the attention of the Cardinals, they have them dialing the paranoia up to 11.

They know what the deal is.  It was easy for them to laugh early last year when the Cubs couldn’t get over the hump against them.  It was the “same old Cubs” for most of the season, and when Miguel Montero cleared the bases while Yadi screamed at the home plate umpire while the ball was still in play, they were comforted that a couple innings later Jhonny Peralta hit a game winning homer off of Pedro Strop.

“Same old Cubs.”

That was July.

It all turned on them in September.  With Strop on the mound trying to finish off what had looked like a certain Cubs win, the Cardinals had rallied.

But then, this:

The worm turned, and it never turned back.  The Cubs and Cardinals were on a postseason collision course from then on and the Cardinals dreaded it.

When the Cubs beat them in the NLDS, nobody but the most delusional Cardinals fan (and there lots of them) felt that the better team had lost.

And it’s driving them crazy.  The one thing they felt was sure in life, that they’d always be better than the Cubs, is slipping away.

So, instead of worrying about how things could go wrong this year, let’s focus on just how great it is that the Cardinals and their fans are losing their shit over the near certain prospect that they’re going to on the business end of drubbings from the Cubs for the forseeable future.

Besides, the Cubs have bigger concerns than an aging and brittle Cardinals team.  There are the Pirates who will likely man the real battle with the Cubs for the NL Central crown this year.  Then there are the billion dollar Dodgers, the “it’s an even year!” Giants and that Mets pitching staff.  Oh, and there’s Dusty’s Nats and…oh, never mind, dude.

We’ve waited a long time for a team like this.

Well, however long forever is.

A team full of players who make no secret of the fact they love playing the game, love playing it in Chicago, and who embrace the idea that they are ones who are going to climb the biggest mountain in American professional sports.  There’s nothing bigger or cooler left to accomplish in baseball than to win a World Series with the Cubs.  How fortuitous, that being terrible long enough can eventually make you cool.  Oh, and it’s not just about relishing the opportunity.  They’re actually good enough to do it.

So here we are, just a couple of weeks away from the start of what just might be our favorite summer (and fall) ever.

But we need to manage our expectations.

And by that, I only mean we need to stop expecting the worst.  I know it’s hard.  We’re Cubs fans, and that’s all we know.

Here’s a crazy thought.  Let’s expect something great.  It’ll only make it that much better when it happens.