I’m happy that Wrigley Field is back to full capacity starting today, but is it really smart to allow mouth breathing Cardinals fans into a packed stadium? Having Yadi breathing on people on the field is bad enough, but we know the people least likely to be vaccinated are science-denying yokels who espouse the Cardinal Way, and apparently 15% of the Cubs’ roster.
That said, it’s a great time to be playing the Cardinals. Sixty-percent of their projected starting rotation is on the injured list (80% if you count Dakota Hudson–what a perfectly “Cardinal” name–who would have been in the rotation had he not been pre-injured before the season even started.)
The forty percent who remain are old friend Carlos Martinez, who is great at dominating the Cubs for four innings and then giving up an eight spot in the fifth–and he’s been especially awful lately, and Adam Wainwright, the 57 year old whose arm is liable to fall off at any moment.
The Cardinals have lost eight of ten and have fallen from first place to third, and are precariously close to fourth. That’d be a real shame, wouldn’t it?
Even better, they have lost five straight series that don’t involve the nosediving Diamondbacks.
Since the end of May they have four players hitting .250 or better. The only guy hitting actually well is Tyler O’Neill who is .373/.396/.882 with seven homers and RBI the last 13 games.
Matt Carpenter is hitting .320/.414/.520 over that same span, but he hasn’t hit a homer in three years (or something), he’ll pass out from the heat by the third inning today, and he can’t play an actual position anymore.
Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .256 with two homers and five RBI, and golden boy Nolan Arenado is at .255/.294/.404. Sure, Patrick Wisdom would have cost them $400,000 more than Arenado this year ($400,000) but he’s been mildly more productive .364/.417/.955/1.317 with eight homers and 12 RBI.
But I’m sure the Cardinals are better off with their return for Wisdom. It’s…let me look here…Giants outfielder Drew Robinson. Oh, well let’s see, who did they get for Robinson? Oh, nobody.
Once you get past Arenado, Carlos Martinez is actually outhitting the rest of the team. Is that a good sign?
He’s hitting .250. That’s outpacing Tommy Edman (also .250 with a fantastic .288 OBA), Dylan Carlson (.226), and catcher Andrew Knizner (that last name is basically unpronounceable, why are there two n’s placed awkwardly like that?) at .222.
I know you’re wondering where’s Yadi? I mean, he’s having such a good year. The last time we saw him he was getting a standing ovation for making it all the way to first on an intentional walk.
Well, overall Yadi’s numbers do look pretty good (for him), .273/.319/.487 with seven homers and 28 RBI. But on May 10 they were .329/.367/.630 with five homers and 18 RBI.
Since, he’s .221/.274/.351 with 18 strikeouts. Yadi’s latest excuse is a bruised knee. It’s nice that he mixes it up from thumb to foot to the time he had to have a bruise drained from his scrotum. Yadi’s old and bad and playing more isn’t going to improve those numbers.
And then, there’s the great Edmundo Sosa.
Remember when the Cubs were in St. Louis the third week of May (winning two of the three games) and Sosa was red hot and everybody from a gurgling Mike Shannon to the national TV guys at Fox and ESPN were talking about how the Cardinals were going to have to find playing time for this firecracker even once Paul DeJong returned from injury?
Well, DeJong might be ready to return and I don’t think the Cardinals are going to worry about getting Edmundo at bats.
His last 13 games, he’s hitting .184/.245/.245. Shocking, really, that a guy who is a career .283 minor league hitter with no ability to get on base or hit for power couldn’t continue to hit big league hitting after a good month.
There’s a temptation to bet on teams you feel are better than their recent play. With sports betting legal in more and more states around the midwest Cardinals and Cubs fans have a vested interest in deciphering whether a cold streak is about to be halted, or if there are too many injuries to slow the roll. Savvy bettors can use that info to their advantage, and it can show up in previously unheard of places like the latest IA revenue. Which showcases sportsbooks in Iowa have now surpassed $100 million in gross gaming revenue since legalization in August 2019.
The Cubs, for example have played well and are starting to get some of their early season regulars back,. But what if that’s not necessarily a good thing?
They survived their dreaded west coast road trip (the first of two) with a 3-4 record that felt like a real accomplishment after losing the first three games out there, have won seven of their last eight series. I know that’s not really a thing in the regular season, but it seems like something. Since losing two games in Cleveland on May 11 and 12, they are 18-8 and have won series against the Tigers, Nationals, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, and two against the Padres. Only their weekend series in San Francisco was a loser. And, had David Ross put aside the fact that Jason Heyward once provided him a suite on the road for every trip in his final series, and pinch hit Sergio Alcantara for him down one with the loaded and two outs in the ninth, the Cubs might have split that series with the Giants. Maybe.
The Cubs are getting healthier, which is mostly a good thing. The return of Heyward has been a drain on the lineup. He’s hitless in 12 at bats since coming back and his season splits continue to mine for greater depths, currently at .167/.248/.312. He homered in his rehab stint at Iowa. They should have left him there.
Eric Sogard is officially the least offensive (and most offensive in other ways) player in baseball with a WPA of -1.014. But that’s because Heyward missed enough games to not currently qualify. When he does, his 1.260 will easily lap Sogard.
Sogard’s once iron lock (because of his imaginary intangibles) on a roster spot seems to have slipped. Ross stared Ian Happ at second base on Wednesday, meaning that when Javy Baez’s thumb is good enough for him to play, the Cubs won’t need to keep Sogard around as the backup shortstop, because Alcantara is a much better option there, and really, anywhere.
Heyward’s a much harder deal. He’s the highest paid player on the team, and once Sogard is gone, the worst player on the team. He’s still owed $44 million the next two seasons and about $14 more this year, plus about $12 million in deferments. The Cubs are going to pay him $70 million from here on out to be one of the least productive players in baseball. Even if they were willing to eat almost all of his salary they’d have a nearly impossible time trading him, and even if they found a team willing to take him, he would have to approve the trade.
Releasing him seems insane. Even at his bloated salary he’s coming off the two most productive seasons with the Cubs. That’s true. But it’s also damning with faint praise. In 2019 he hit .251/.343/.429 for an OPS+ of 101. He was basically league average. You don’t pay that much for league average.
Last year he was .265/.392/.456 for an OPS+ of 132. Hey, that’s better. But it was a pandemic mirage. Heyward’s “breakout” season was really just 17 games from August 11 to the 30th when he hit .362/.508/.787.
In his 11 games before that stretch he hit .189/.231/.270. In the 21 games after he hit .238/.380/.317. The season ending in 60 games meant that a 17 game hot stretch made his numbers look good.
There’s almost zero risk to releasing him. His offensive numbers have been easily replaceable for years, and now his defense is declining rapidly. Hopefully, that’s because of injury, but unless he started the season with a nagging injury, that’s unlikely, because his range has noticeably declined.
He won’t get released because of the money owed to him. In an insane way (and one that’s very common in sports) the Cubs are paying him too much to admit he can’t help them. You would think of all teams, the Cubs would know what a sunk cost looks like:
