National League East

Predicted order of finish:

1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Florida
4. New York Mets
5. Washington

Phillies

They’ve been the best team in the division for three years and haven’t won it. They dumped the Gestapo tactics of Larry Bowa in favor of Charlie “How much colon do I lose this time” Manuel, so that should give them a short term boost.

Finally ridding themselves of Kevin Milwood seemed like a good idea and the Eric Milton experiment wasn’t too grand. So they turn their rotation over to Jon Lieber and friends. Jon will do what he always does. He’ll throw strikes, he’ll work fast, he’ll be murder on righthanded hitters and lefties will bounce balls off the facade of the bleachers.

They have a well balanced offense, though they really should just kick some dirt on what’s left of Mike Lieberthal. Plus, they have Kenny Lofton, which means they will make the playoffs and then find the most painful possible way to lose in the playoffs. Good times.

Jim Thome’s a lovable guy. I just look at him and try to not remember that he wanted to play for the Cubs. Sigh.

Braves

The Braves clinched the end of their run of division titles when they brought Chip Caray back. OK, that’s foolish, but they’ll lose this year, finally because their outfield is brutal, their shortstop is one strike away from spending a year in prison and John Smoltz’s arm will be in a sling by June.

John Smoltz is a great pitcher, but we forget that they moved him to the bullpen for a reason. Because he had a bad arm. You can’t just suddenly make a dominant starter out of him again. He might be a good starter again, but what’s that? A 13 win season with a 4.00 ERA? That’s what you’re already going to get out of Mike Hampton and more than you’ll probably get from John Thompson. That doesn’t spell division title.

Besides, if you’re really going to play Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi in the outfield, you’re just asking for it.

Marlins

The Marlins have some real star power. Miguel Cabrera’s a stud. Carlos Delgado can still rake. Josh Beckett can be dominant. But man, there are some big holes here. Juan Pierre has a bad calf. They’re trying to trade for Bobby Higginson to help their outfield. Bobby Higginson?!? Alex Gonzalez stinks (just like his namesake), their bullpen is anonymous for good reason and they need a good season, not just a solid one, but a good one from Al Leiter. Oh, and if Dontrelle Willis would learn to throw a strike once and a while, that’d be a plus, too.

This is a good team. Good speed (when healthy), some power, but just too many questions with the guys throwing the pelota. Maybe next year.

Mets

You can’t argue with the Carlos Beltran signing. Who cares what they paid him? He’s a great player and they’ll have him for a long time.

I can argue all day long about what they paid for Pedro Martinez, though. It’s not just that he’s getting old and his arm is starting to fall off, but how can you saddle a rookie manager with the toughest pitcher to deal with in the game? If you think Sammy Sosa’s a prima dona you haven’t seen anything.

Remember when the Red Sox players put that huge Pedro bobblehead doll in their dugout? They did that to mock Pedro for not showing up on days he wasn’t pitching. You have to limit his pitch count, only to have him complain to the press every time you pull him. The Mets aren’t anywhere near a playoff spot and you only bring in a guy like this to put you over the top. No thanks.

David Wright’s going to be a star, but I think Jose Reyes is always going to be a Disabled List standout. Kaz Matsui stinks.

And the pitching behind Pedro? Tom Glavine’s done, Kris Benson’s never going to be that good, Victor Zambrano blows and Steve Trachsel has a bad back. Other than that, it’s great.

Nationals

I was reading some comments Frank Robinson had about his de facto leadoff man and center fielder Endy Chavez and Frank was saying that Endy has the tools but not the aptitude to lead off (sound like anybody we know?), and it reminded me of something Frank said two years ago about Chavez.

“When you bat Endy leadoff it’s like starting every game with one out.” Ouch.

So Endy might not enjoy much of a honeymoon in DC, but the rest of the Nationals will. They’ll give the Mets a run for last place, but just don’t have much pitching. Their offense has too many holes (Cristian Guzman’s a big one, and Vinny Castilla’s another), but they’ve got some pretty good players like Brad Wilkerson, Jose Vidro (when healthy) and Brian Schneider and Jose Guillen.

For one season at least, Washington won’t care. They’ll just think it’s fun to be able to go to a baseball game.

So they got that going for them, which is nice.