Time for a second ring, but also I don't want to derail the Yu Darvish thread with "WHO SHOULD MAKE THE ROSTER?" talk because there's usually a dedicated thread for that stuff, so here it is.
Justin Grimm can do one.
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
Shouldn't be an issue - the Cubs have the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history on their squad.
Regardless of who they start at leadoff, I hope/assume that by mid June they've identified their best option based on play up to that point, and that they continue to change the person in that role as needed based on situational hitting.
Quote from: Canadouche on February 15, 2018, 09:07:04 AM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
Shouldn't be an issue - the Cubs have the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history on their squad.
Regardless of who they start at leadoff, I hope/assume that by mid June they've identified their best option based on play up to that point, and that they continue to change the person in that role as needed based on situational hitting.
So you hope that by June, they've identified the one guy who is their best leadoff hitter, and that they then not use that person as their everyday leadoff hitter.
Quote from: R-V on February 15, 2018, 09:09:06 AM
Quote from: Canadouche on February 15, 2018, 09:07:04 AM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
Shouldn't be an issue - the Cubs have the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history on their squad.
Regardless of who they start at leadoff, I hope/assume that by mid June they've identified their best option based on play up to that point, and that they continue to change the person in that role as needed based on situational hitting.
So you hope that by June, they've identified the one guy who is their best leadoff hitter, and that they then not use that person as their everyday leadoff hitter.
I'm confused by each of the last 2 posts.
I'm going to suggest Almora vs. lefties and Heyward vs. righties. Neither is ideal, but the alternatives are not very appealing. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing Schwarber get another shot, but I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen. Technically, Bryant would be a good leadoff hitter, but you'd be robbing yourself of a pretty big run-producer from the middle of the lineup--unless Joe goes back to having the pitcher batting 8th. Still, I don't see that happening.
Quote from: R-V on February 15, 2018, 09:09:06 AM
Quote from: Canadouche on February 15, 2018, 09:07:04 AM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
Shouldn't be an issue - the Cubs have the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history on their squad.
Regardless of who they start at leadoff, I hope/assume that by mid June they've identified their best option based on play up to that point, and that they continue to change the person in that role as needed based on situational hitting.
So you hope that by June, they've identified the one guy who is their best leadoff hitter, and that they then not use that person as their everyday leadoff hitter.
I'm sure the Cubs have their analysis about who would be best suited in that spot on any given day, and I'm sure that might change as the year progresses and their analysis is updated based on actual play.
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
For now I'd put Almora as the lead off hitter vs lefties (.320/.377/.503 vs LHP in his career so far). Against RHP I'm not sure.
VS RHP:
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Happ CF
Russell SS
Baez 2B
Heyward/Zobrist RF
VS LHP
Almora CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Baez 2B
Happ RF
Russell SS
Zobrist LF
would be my arrangement for now, with Heyward/Zobrist/Happ playing time being mostly in favor of Happ unless Zobrist proves last year was more injury than age and looks like 2016 Zobrist or Heyward's work with Chili Davis fixes hahahaha I can't even finish that sentence
Quote from: SKO on February 15, 2018, 10:10:24 AM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
For now I'd put Almora as the lead off hitter vs lefties (.320/.377/.503 vs LHP in his career so far). Against RHP I'm not sure.
VS RHP:
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Happ CF
Russell SS
Baez 2B
Heyward/Zobrist RF
VS LHP
Almora CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Baez 2B
Happ RF
Russell SS
Zobrist LF
would be my arrangement for now, with Heyward/Zobrist/Happ playing time being mostly in favor of Happ unless Zobrist proves last year was more injury than age and looks like 2016 Zobrist or Heyward's work with Chili Davis fixes hahahaha I can't even finish that sentence
DPD, people will balk at Schwarber at lead off bc a lot of morons blamed the Schwarber Leadoff Experiment for his slow start rather than "is still functionally a rookie and missed an entire year of development" but he has a career .344 OBP vs RHP and I'd bet it was even better than that vs RHP after his return from Iowa last year.
Quote from: SKO on February 15, 2018, 10:10:24 AM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
For now I'd put Almora as the lead off hitter vs lefties (.320/.377/.503 vs LHP in his career so far). Against RHP I'm not sure.
VS RHP:
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Happ CF
Russell SS
Baez 2B
Heyward/Zobrist RF
VS LHP
Almora CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Baez 2B
Happ RF
Russell SS
Zobrist LF
would be my arrangement for now, with Heyward/Zobrist/Happ playing time being mostly in favor of Happ unless Zobrist proves last year was more injury than age and looks like 2016 Zobrist or Heyward's work with Chili Davis fixes hahahaha I can't even finish that sentence
If Russell can bounce back this year then we can live with Heyward in the lineup, even if he's still got a limp-dick bat. I do like having a premier defender out there. Whenever a well-struck ball is hit toward the gap in right-center I immediately feel confident that Heyward will run it down, whereas when, say, Jorge Soler was out there and a merely decently-struck ball was headed to straightaway right field, it would immediately make me feel nervous.
The challenge for Joe will be getting Happ his 350-400 plate appearances, so if Heyward is still not hitting, then he'll likely lose some at-bats to Happ but I'd still rather see Heyward out there most days. I really want to see Almora play CF every day, but I understand Happ will probably be out there from time-to-time, hopefully just to give Almora a blow (against tough righties) and not as part of a platoon. I think Happ will get most of his playing time at 2nd base--when Javy sits, when Russell sits (with Javy covering short) and when Bryant sits (Javy to 3rd). Of course those guys aren't sitting every week--maybe once every 2 weeks?--so Happ's playing time will need to be augmented with some OF rotation. If Happ is the go-to for when Bryant, Russell, Baez, Almora, Heyward and Schwarber all get a day off, and assuming this is one-day-for-every-2-weeks, then that would come to about 12 starts a month for Happ--72 starts a year, which would bring him to only around 250 or so plate appearances a year. Maddon will have to figure it out--that's why he makes the big bucks.
Personally, I really see Zobrist sliding into full-time bench jockey role but I understand Maddon probably doesn't see it that way, which of course creates a bigger challenge if he's already struggling with getting Happ enough at-bats. But again, here's hoping Maddon can figure this shit out.
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 10:44:41 AM
Quote from: SKO on February 15, 2018, 10:10:24 AM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
For now I'd put Almora as the lead off hitter vs lefties (.320/.377/.503 vs LHP in his career so far). Against RHP I'm not sure.
VS RHP:
Schwarber LF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Happ CF
Russell SS
Baez 2B
Heyward/Zobrist RF
VS LHP
Almora CF
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras C
Baez 2B
Happ RF
Russell SS
Zobrist LF
would be my arrangement for now, with Heyward/Zobrist/Happ playing time being mostly in favor of Happ unless Zobrist proves last year was more injury than age and looks like 2016 Zobrist or Heyward's work with Chili Davis fixes hahahaha I can't even finish that sentence
If Russell can bounce back this year then we can live with Heyward in the lineup, even if he's still got a limp-dick bat. I do like having a premier defender out there. Whenever a well-struck ball is hit toward the gap in right-center I immediately feel confident that Heyward will run it down, whereas when, say, Jorge Soler was out there and a merely decently-struck ball was headed to straightaway right field, it would immediately make me feel nervous.
The challenge for Joe will be getting Happ his 350-400 plate appearances, so if Heyward is still not hitting, then he'll likely lose some at-bats to Happ but I'd still rather see Heyward out there most days. I really want to see Almora play CF every day, but I understand Happ will probably be out there from time-to-time, hopefully just to give Almora a blow (against tough righties) and not as part of a platoon. I think Happ will get most of his playing time at 2nd base--when Javy sits, when Russell sits (with Javy covering short) and when Bryant sits (Javy to 3rd). Of course those guys aren't sitting every week--maybe once every 2 weeks?--so Happ's playing time will need to be augmented with some OF rotation. If Happ is the go-to for when Bryant, Russell, Baez, Almora, Heyward and Schwarber all get a day off, and assuming this is one-day-for-every-2-weeks, then that would come to about 12 starts a month for Happ--72 starts a year, which would bring him to only around 250 or so plate appearances a year. Maddon will have to figure it out--that's why he makes the big bucks.
Personally, I really see Zobrist sliding into full-time bench jockey role but I understand Maddon probably doesn't see it that way, which of course creates a bigger challenge if he's already struggling with getting Happ enough at-bats. But again, here's hoping Maddon can figure this shit out.
Heyward finished 20th in fWAR among all right fielders with at least 450 plate appearances last year. 16 of the 19 right fielders ahead of him were negative value, defensively. Ian Happ graded out positively somehow as a center fielder last year (per UZR, anyway), so I bet he'd be quite good full time in a corner. The Cubs staff figures to get a lot of groundballs and K's this year.
Long story short: right field defense isn't that important at all and was supposed to be the thing that bumped Heyward from an above average hitter into an overall elite player. With the pool noodle he's been swinging he's dropped all of the way down to a below average right fielder, all things considered. I don't care if Russell bouncing back means they could "afford" Heyward in right. I'm not interested in building a lineup that can cover for Jason Heyward. The best team they can field probably doesn't include Heyward at all unless he makes a massive improvement offensively.
You can always insert Heyward when you have late leads anyways. I doubt many teams are concerned with organizing their lineup in such a way as to make sure they can include their All Glove, No Hit fourth outfielder every day.
Unless the Brewers shock the world and sign both Arrieta and Cobb, the first 162 games of the year will be plenty of time to sort shit out before the Cubs will have to break too much of a sweat. Let's swee how it all plays out.
Quote from: Quality Start Machine on February 15, 2018, 11:20:05 AM
Unless the Brewers shock the world and sign both Arrieta and Cobb, the first 162 games of the year will be plenty of time to sort shit out before the Cubs will have to break too much of a sweat. Let's swee how it all plays out.
I mostly agree with this sentiment, but I'd be in favor just playing the best lineup in the first half and boat racing the NLC and then "Jason Heyward gets another chance to prove himself before kicking himself in the dick repeatedly" can wait until the division's already salted away.
Thinking about playing time in terms of plate appearances rather than platoons, you can get everyone who matters to 500 PA's if you just parcel out Jay's playing time from last year:
(https://i.imgur.com/L4OqB3E.jpg)
Managing is easy. All you need is a spreadsheet.
Quote from: R-V on February 15, 2018, 01:20:19 PM
Thinking about playing time in terms of plate appearances rather than platoons, you can get everyone who matters to 500 PA's if you just parcel out Jay's playing time from last year:
(https://i.imgur.com/L4OqB3E.jpg)
Managing is easy. All you need is a spreadsheet.
They're going to score more runs, so there will be even more plate appearances.
Look I have spent well over a year working on my plan to launch Jason Heyward into the sun with a comically large trebuchet, I'm not going to be dissuaded unless that fucker posts at least a league average wRC+ from the jump.
If Zobrist is healthy, then put him there. If he's 2017 Zobrist, then of course, no
Quote from: Canadouche on February 15, 2018, 10:07:50 AM
Quote from: R-V on February 15, 2018, 09:09:06 AM
Quote from: Canadouche on February 15, 2018, 09:07:04 AM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
Shouldn't be an issue - the Cubs have the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history on their squad.
Regardless of who they start at leadoff, I hope/assume that by mid June they've identified their best option based on play up to that point, and that they continue to change the person in that role as needed based on situational hitting.
So you hope that by June, they've identified the one guy who is their best leadoff hitter, and that they then not use that person as their everyday leadoff hitter.
I'm sure the Cubs have their analysis about who would be best suited in that spot on any given day, and I'm sure that might change as the year progresses and their analysis is updated based on actual play.
Didn't you used to be a writer?
Quote from: Uncouth Sloth on February 15, 2018, 03:10:49 PM
If Zobrist is healthy, then put him there. If he's 2017 Zobrist, then of course, no
Zobrist is possibly done as an everyday player and even if he's not Joe's going to have enough of a challenge spreading at-bats around to ensure that Happ gets his 380, if need be, let alone this older shell-of-a-version of Happ. Sacrificing a good team at the altar of Having a Leadoff Hitter seems to be a bit of an overreaction. Having a premier one like Fowler is great, but not every team has one at that level. Hell, of all the spots that Zobrist has batted in his career, even
he has been least productive at leadoff so even
he's not as good as you would think (in case you want a reminder, point to Ben swinging at the first pitch his first TWO times up against Strasburg and meekly putting the ball in play in that otherwise Totally Awesome Game 1 of the LDS last year--part of what helped Strasburg have 10 K's by the 6th inning but still managing to be below 90 pitches)
I personally think Schwarber should just do it again but the reactionary meatball mob is already convinced that batting leadoff is what sunk Schwarber's 1st half last year and Joe probably doesn't want the headache. In that case I think they should consider Heyward and Almora--depending on the handedness of the pitcher. This team scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year even without a steady consistent presence at the top, and they'll probably do it again this year regardless of who's leading off....unless of course it's Zobrist.
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 20, 2018, 12:11:33 PM
Quote from: Uncouth Sloth on February 15, 2018, 03:10:49 PM
If Zobrist is healthy, then put him there. If he's 2017 Zobrist, then of course, no
Zobrist is possibly done as an everyday player and even if he's not Joe's going to have enough of a challenge spreading at-bats around to ensure that Happ gets his 380, if need be, let alone this older shell-of-a-version of Happ. Sacrificing a good team at the altar of Having a Leadoff Hitter seems to be a bit of an overreaction. Having a premier one like Fowler is great, but not every team has one at that level. Hell, of all the spots that Zobrist has batted in his career, even he has been least productive at leadoff so even he's not as good as you would think (in case you want a reminder, point to Ben swinging at the first pitch his first TWO times up against Strasburg and meekly putting the ball in play in that otherwise Totally Awesome Game 1 of the LDS last year--part of what helped Strasburg have 10 K's by the 6th inning but still managing to be below 90 pitches)
I personally think Schwarber should just do it again but the reactionary meatball mob is already convinced that batting leadoff is what sunk Schwarber's 1st half last year and Joe probably doesn't want the headache. In that case I think they should consider Heyward and Almora--depending on the handedness of the pitcher. This team scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year even without a steady consistent presence at the top, and they'll probably do it again this year regardless of who's leading off....unless of course it's Zobrist.
The highest OBP of anybody on the 2017 Cubs not named Rizzo or Bryant was Jon Jay. Right that wrong.
Quote from: Oleg on February 20, 2018, 11:16:13 AM
Quote from: Canadouche on February 15, 2018, 10:07:50 AM
Quote from: R-V on February 15, 2018, 09:09:06 AM
Quote from: Canadouche on February 15, 2018, 09:07:04 AM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 15, 2018, 09:03:26 AM
Who bats leadoff?
Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.
Shouldn't be an issue - the Cubs have the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history on their squad.
Regardless of who they start at leadoff, I hope/assume that by mid June they've identified their best option based on play up to that point, and that they continue to change the person in that role as needed based on situational hitting.
So you hope that by June, they've identified the one guy who is their best leadoff hitter, and that they then not use that person as their everyday leadoff hitter.
I'm sure the Cubs have their analysis about who would be best suited in that spot on any given day, and I'm sure that might change as the year progresses and their analysis is updated based on actual play.
Didn't you used to be a writer?
Used to.
Quote from: Quality Start Machine on February 20, 2018, 04:20:54 PM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 20, 2018, 12:11:33 PM
Quote from: Uncouth Sloth on February 15, 2018, 03:10:49 PM
If Zobrist is healthy, then put him there. If he's 2017 Zobrist, then of course, no
Zobrist is possibly done as an everyday player and even if he's not Joe's going to have enough of a challenge spreading at-bats around to ensure that Happ gets his 380, if need be, let alone this older shell-of-a-version of Happ. Sacrificing a good team at the altar of Having a Leadoff Hitter seems to be a bit of an overreaction. Having a premier one like Fowler is great, but not every team has one at that level. Hell, of all the spots that Zobrist has batted in his career, even he has been least productive at leadoff so even he's not as good as you would think (in case you want a reminder, point to Ben swinging at the first pitch his first TWO times up against Strasburg and meekly putting the ball in play in that otherwise Totally Awesome Game 1 of the LDS last year--part of what helped Strasburg have 10 K's by the 6th inning but still managing to be below 90 pitches)
I personally think Schwarber should just do it again but the reactionary meatball mob is already convinced that batting leadoff is what sunk Schwarber's 1st half last year and Joe probably doesn't want the headache. In that case I think they should consider Heyward and Almora--depending on the handedness of the pitcher. This team scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year even without a steady consistent presence at the top, and they'll probably do it again this year regardless of who's leading off....unless of course it's Zobrist.
The highest OBP of anybody on the 2017 Cubs not named Rizzo or Bryant was Jon Jay. Right that wrong.
I note on all the 'prediction' sites that nearly all Cubs are predicted to hit fewer homers and drive in fewer runs (as is the conservative nature of predictions) but almost all of them forecast significantly higher OBP for every last Cub not named Rizzo or Bryant.
So, that's good, I guess?
The lineup I'd want based on 50th percentile Projections at BP:
Schwarber LF: .243/.346/.495, 33 dongers
Bryant 3B: .280/.381/.518, 30 dongers
Rizzo 1B: .276/.376/.502, 30 dongers
Willson C: .285/.362/.488, 21 dongers
Happ CF: .246/.321/464, 23 dongers
Baez 2B: .252/.301/.435, 22 dongers
Russell SS: .246/.317/.418, 18 dongers
Heyward RF: .261/.341/.395, 11 dongers
Bench:
Almora: .273/.311/.421, 12 dongers
La Stella: .262/.343/.389, 3 dongers
Zobrist: .260/.349/.399 10 dongers
Gimenez: .231/.321/.370, 6 dongers
There's basically not a guy up there I would be surprised to see out-perform that projection (other than Heyward, I'm taking the under there) and yet basically as long as the most likely scenario plays out for most of these guys this team is going to score all of the fucking runs. So many runs.
I feel like this team could be better than 2016. Like, a lot better.
Quote from: Canadouche on February 26, 2018, 12:28:08 PM
I feel like this team could be better than 2016. Like, a lot better.
Slow down, cowboy.
Let's start with them being better than the 2017 team, which I happen to fully expect them to be. Bettering 2016 would be a hell of a feat.
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 26, 2018, 02:26:31 PM
Quote from: Canadouche on February 26, 2018, 12:28:08 PM
I feel like this team could be better than 2016. Like, a lot better.
Slow down, cowboy.
Let's start with them being better than the 2017 team, which I happen to fully expect them to be. Bettering 2016 would be a hell of a feat.
I like this team's offense better than 2016, I think, and I think this pitching staff might have more raw talent than 2016 did, but I really don't see anyway they could possibly replicate just how ridiculously good that team was at preventing runs. A Schwarber/HappMora/Heyward outfield just isn't as good defensively as Zobrist/Fowler/Heyward, the offensive environment of the league has changed thanks to the totally-not-juiced ball, and while I am of the opinion that the Cubs historically low BABIP allowed in 2016 was more talent than luck, it was still
somewhat lucky and hard to duplicate.
TL, DR: I think they'll allow more runs than 2016 (though they should still be a top 5 pitching staff this year IMO) and will score more, so in the wash their best case scenario is probably Just As Good But Different.
In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?
Quote from: R-V on February 26, 2018, 04:10:56 PM
In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?
2017
2016
2008
1984
1969
?
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 26, 2018, 04:15:43 PM
Quote from: R-V on February 26, 2018, 04:10:56 PM
In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?
2017
2016
2008
1984
1969
?
3 out of 5 ain't bad:
2008 855 runs
1998 831 runs
2017 822 runs
2016 808 runs
1970 806 runs
1984 checks in at #10 with 762 runs
1969 is way down at #15 with 720 runs
It's still interesting to me that the 2017 group outscored the 2016 team that had Fower at the top and a healthy/productive Zobrist.
Quote from: R-V on February 26, 2018, 04:24:35 PM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 26, 2018, 04:15:43 PM
Quote from: R-V on February 26, 2018, 04:10:56 PM
In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?
2017
2016
2008
1984
1969
?
3 out of 5 ain't bad:
2008 855 runs
1998 831 runs
2017 822 runs
2016 808 runs
1970 806 runs
1984 checks in at #10 with 762 runs
1969 is way down at #15 with 720 runs
It's still interesting to me that the 2017 group outscored the 2016 team that had Fower at the top and a healthy/productive Zobrist.
They were an insanely good offense in the 2nd half last year.
Second half OPS:
Contreras: .993
Bryant .968
Rizzo: .906
Schwarber: .894
Baez: .851
Russell: .839
Happ: .814
I dunno about you but I feel like filling out a lineup where 7 guys are OPS'ing above .800 is fun.
There's no real correlation that shows that second half numbers carry over better than full season numbers but man is it fun to see what this offense can be when they all click
Quote from: R-V on February 26, 2018, 04:24:35 PM
Quote from: Huey Potatohead on February 26, 2018, 04:15:43 PM
Quote from: R-V on February 26, 2018, 04:10:56 PM
In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?
2017
2016
2008
1984
1969
?
3 out of 5 ain't bad:
2008 855 runs
1998 831 runs
2017 822 runs
2016 808 runs
1970 806 runs
1984 checks in at #10 with 762 runs
1969 is way down at #15 with 720 runs
It's still interesting to me that the 2017 group outscored the 2016 team that had Fower at the top and a healthy/productive Zobrist.
DPD, but I was not aware how much offense was down in the early 80s. The 84 Cubs 762 runs were 1st in the NL that year but would've been middle of the pack last year. The 84 Padres were 4th in the NL that year with 686 runs which would've been 13th last year