Jake Arrieta 2017 Salary Drive Sploogefest

[ChuckD]

I know it works differently than politics but I wonder if there's any chance Greinke and Kershaw somehow "split" the vote, paving the way for Jake.

If half the writers vote Kershaw first and the other half vote Greinke first and everyone votes Arrieta second, would that do it?

No. It's basically impossible to win the award without receiving 1st place votes.

1st - 7 pts per vote
2nd - 4
3rd - 3
4th - 2
5th - 1

If (by some statistical improbability) Kershaw/Greinke each received 15 1st place votes and 15 3rd place votes while Arrieta swept all 30 2nd place votes:

Kershaw: 15 * 7 + 15 * 3 = 150 points
Greinke: 15 * 7 + 15 * 3 = 150 points
Arrieta: 30 * 4 = 120 points

Now, if Kershaw and Greinke received 15 1st place votes and 15 fifth place votes, and Arrieta swept all 30 of the 2nd place votes, you'd have a 3-way tie at 120 points.

[Quality Start Machine]

I know it works differently than politics but I wonder if there's any chance Greinke and Kershaw somehow "split" the vote, paving the way for Jake.

If half the writers vote Kershaw first and the other half vote Greinke first and everyone votes Arrieta second, would that do it?

No. It's basically impossible to win the award without receiving 1st place votes.

1st - 7 pts per vote
2nd - 4
3rd - 3
4th - 2
5th - 1

If (by some statistical improbability) Kershaw/Greinke each received 15 1st place votes and 15 3rd place votes while Arrieta swept all 30 2nd place votes:

Kershaw: 15 * 7 + 15 * 3 = 150 points
Greinke: 15 * 7 + 15 * 3 = 150 points
Arrieta: 30 * 4 = 120 points

Now, if Kershaw and Greinke received 15 1st place votes and 15 fifth place votes, and Arrieta swept all 30 of the 2nd place votes, you'd have a 3-way tie at 120 points.

And we could all enjoy the witch hunt for the guys who decided Kershaw or Greinke were the 5th best pitcher in the National League.

[SKO]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

[ChuckD]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

[SKO]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Never assume. Jake has no need of bullpens

[WTB...A RING FFS!!]

CG 3H SO with 11K's, what a bum, Feldman would've had at least a no-no.

[Slaky]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

I can safely say I've never seen anything like this.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

I can safely say I've never seen anything like this.

Closest thing I could compare it to would be '84 Sutcliffe and I'd be willing to bet Sut's numbers don't hold a candle to this.

[Quality Start Machine]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

I can safely say I've never seen anything like this.

Closest thing I could compare it to would be '84 Sutcliffe and I'd be willing to bet Sut's numbers don't hold a candle to this.

Quick glance of Sut's splits for 1984 tell me that if he and Jake were on the 84 Cubs, the Red Baron would have started game 2.

[Tonker]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

I can safely say I've never seen anything like this.

Quick glance of Sut's splits for 1984 tell me that if he and Jake were on the 84 Cubs, the Red Baron would have started game 2.

Closest thing I could compare it to would be '84 Sutcliffe and I'd be willing to bet Sut's numbers don't hold a candle to this.

Quick glance at this post tells me that Fork still hasn't figured out how quotes work.

[Quality Start Machine]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

I can safely say I've never seen anything like this.

Quick glance of Sut's splits for 1984 tell me that if he and Jake were on the 84 Cubs, the Red Baron would have started game 2.

Closest thing I could compare it to would be '84 Sutcliffe and I'd be willing to bet Sut's numbers don't hold a candle to this.

Quick glance at this post tells me that Fork still hasn't figured out how quotes work.

[Quality Start Machine]

DPD.

ESPN puts Jake's run into context.

Jake Arrieta has an ERA of 0.86 in 13 starts since the ASB. No pitcher has ever recorded a sub-1.00 ERA after ASB with at least 13 starts.

Jake Arrieta's shutout gives him a 0.48 ERA since Aug. 4, 4th-best mark in 10-game stretch since ER became official in both leagues in 1913.

[Oleg]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

I can safely say I've never seen anything like this.

Closest thing I could compare it to would be '84 Sutcliffe and I'd be willing to bet Sut's numbers don't hold a candle to this.

When adjusted for league environment, Prior's August/September in '03 was pretty fucking special.  And, yet, I'm still guessing Arrieta's run blows it away.

Just for reference, Prior's last 11 starts in '03:
82.2 IP, 67 H, 95:16 K:BB, 1.52 ERA.  Despite a .309 BABIP, he still only gave up a slash line of 221/265/327.  That ERA must have been an ERA+ in the 250 range, I'm guessing.

For league reference, it seems Prior led the league in FIP that year with a 2.47.

[Canadouche]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

I can safely say I've never seen anything like this.

Closest thing I could compare it to would be '84 Sutcliffe and I'd be willing to bet Sut's numbers don't hold a candle to this.

When adjusted for league environment, Prior's August/September in '03 was pretty fucking special.  And, yet, I'm still guessing Arrieta's run blows it away.

Just for reference, Prior's last 11 starts in '03:
82.2 IP, 67 H, 95:16 K:BB, 1.52 ERA.  Despite a .309 BABIP, he still only gave up a slash line of 221/265/327.  That ERA must have been an ERA+ in the 250 range, I'm guessing.

For league reference, it seems Prior led the league in FIP that year with a 2.47.

I've always felt Prior could've been the Cy Young winner that year. As I said earlier, I never thought I'd see better pitching from a Cub than what Prior did those months in '03. I've gotten used to being wrong.

[Oleg]

Assuming he's done....8 shutout innings and an ERA down to 1.88. Jesus Christ

Since the beginning of August: 10 GS, 74.1 IP, 7 R, 4 ER, 38 H, 1 HR, 71 SO, 14 BB, 0.70 WHIP, 0.48 ERA, 5.1 SO:BB

I can safely say I've never seen anything like this.

Closest thing I could compare it to would be '84 Sutcliffe and I'd be willing to bet Sut's numbers don't hold a candle to this.

When adjusted for league environment, Prior's August/September in '03 was pretty fucking special.  And, yet, I'm still guessing Arrieta's run blows it away.

Just for reference, Prior's last 11 starts in '03:
82.2 IP, 67 H, 95:16 K:BB, 1.52 ERA.  Despite a .309 BABIP, he still only gave up a slash line of 221/265/327.  That ERA must have been an ERA+ in the 250 range, I'm guessing.

For league reference, it seems Prior led the league in FIP that year with a 2.47.

I've always felt Prior could've been the Cy Young winner that year. As I said earlier, I never thought I'd see better pitching from a Cub than what Prior did those months in '03. I've gotten used to being wrong.

I think his year in '03 gets lost in Cubs history.  It truly was an amazing performance.  He was a 7.8 fWAR pitcher that year.