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Author Topic: Pollyellon banned me  ( 371,044 )

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1380 on: August 09, 2010, 12:25:36 PM »
Quote from: R-V on August 09, 2010, 12:12:41 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 11:59:34 AM
Quote from: R-V on August 09, 2010, 10:53:27 AM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 10:13:42 AM
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 09:35:59 AM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 09:09:22 AM
EDIT: Waits patiently for the BC-style "HIS OFFENSE PROJECTS BETTER AT SECOND THAN THIRD" argument.

Why is that a BC-style argument? 

Quote from: BCI actually would trade Byrd, start Colvin in CF and Nady in RF for the rest of the year... See if Nady could work out for next season in RF    
Byrd's trade value will never be higher than it is now
Colvin's projected numbers certainly fit better in CF
I think he'll end up being a .275/20-25 HR kind of guy
The average RF is going to be better than the average CF, offensively
So, as long as you aren't losing a ton defensively, .275/25 looks better in CF than it does in RF
Let me rephrase... Let's say the average RF hits .260/15 and the average CF hits .250/10...
if you have someone that hits better than both those averages, and you aren't losing a ton offensively, then if you can find a league average guy for RF it is best to play the .275/25 guy in CF
*and you aren't losing a ton DEFENSIVELY
Would you rather have two guys hitting .240/10 and .275/25 or .260/15 and .275/25?
in the abstract, saying that .240/10 and .260/15 is the average CF and RF
I don't know, just giving it a number for sake of discussion Pen (in response to where he's getting the numbers)
the point isn't that Colvin hits like a CF, it is that he hits much better than the average CF
but not as much better than the average RF
And wouldn't you say we don't know how good a CF Colvin can be yet?

Quote from: RV
Maybe the game has passed me by and the average third baseman is now an interchangeable banjo-hitting slapdick with the average second baseman. I would honestly be surprised if that was the case. If I was savvy enough to find this I would, but what's the OPS+ for a replacement-level 3B vs. a replacement level 2B over the last few years?

eh, I'm not sure where to find it, but according to wOBA for this year, it looks like the average wOBA for 3B is probably .010-.020 points higher this year than 2B.

Are those numbers skewed by the fact that Omar Vizquel (and his negative one million wOBA) has been the White Sox regular 3rd baseman for a good chunk of the season?

The best information I was able to find was Faggraphs leaders pages:
Third
Second
And my average was eying it as opposed to trying to average the wOBA numbers listed since they all don't have the same amount of plate appearances. However, since it factors in "Qualified Players" only (I'm guessing the 3.1 PA/game qualification), Omar was actually not factored in.
Also, if I were to do an average of the numbers (not perfect but it's something) it would give me this:

3B 2010 wOBA Average: .339
2B 2010 wOBA Average: .331

Although DeWitt doesn't fit the "traditional" third baseman by being a 25HR/120RBI kind of guy, that doesn't mean he can't play 3rd. I would say in almost all situations, you don't put someone in a position because of what his offensive prowess indicates. It should be based solely off of their defense. Sure, there are positions like 1B (where .900 OPS guys grow on trees) that are traditionally power positions, but that speaks to the fact that first base defense is relatively insignificant, and you can stick fat fucks who can't field any other position there, like Prince or Dunn

Are you basing your assertion that Dewitt is a good defensive 3B on 109 games worth of UZR? If I remember correctly don't you need a 2 or 3 season sample size for UZR to be worth a shit? Or are there scouting reports that support that he's actually good at third?

My overall point is that IF Dewitt is a great defensive third baseman and IF you have a Chase Utley or a Robinson Cano providing way above average production at 2nd, then you'd consider the move. But I'm guessing we'll all be dead by the time the Cubs have another outstanding offensive second baseman.

ORLY?
Guess again.
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Eli

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1381 on: August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM »
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1382 on: August 09, 2010, 12:39:09 PM »
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

It's interesting that you mention the former Cardinal because that team would easily pull 40 dongs out of that collective. Under McGwire's tutelage? Sheeeeeeeeeit.
The 37th Tenet of Pexism:  Apestink is terrible.

R-V

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1383 on: August 09, 2010, 12:40:59 PM »
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

I think I get it now - Yeti is putting together a hypothetical Cubs Tank the 2011 Season roster. Freddy Bynum will play right field.

Yeti

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1384 on: August 09, 2010, 12:42:42 PM »
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

Can't argue that. I suppose I'm more looking at it to where this situation occurs if the Cubs make a choice to shed salary, and consequently suck (more than this year).

Chuck to Chuck

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1385 on: August 09, 2010, 12:46:47 PM »
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:42:42 PM
I suppose I'm more looking at it to where this situation occurs if the Cubs make a choice to shed salary, and consequently suck (more than this year).

Well, at least there's a reality based method to your madness.

Slaky

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1386 on: August 09, 2010, 12:47:29 PM »
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:42:42 PM
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

Can't argue that. I suppose I'm more looking at it to where this situation occurs if the Cubs make a choice to shed salary, and consequently suck (more than this year).

I think I finally understand what you're doing. You're just trying too hard.

Does anyone really have high hopes for Hak Ju Lee? He's not that good of a prospect, is he? He's fast and tiny. I don't think he does much else.

Yeti

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1387 on: August 09, 2010, 12:49:24 PM »
Quote from: Slaky on August 09, 2010, 12:47:29 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:42:42 PM
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

Can't argue that. I suppose I'm more looking at it to where this situation occurs if the Cubs make a choice to shed salary, and consequently suck (more than this year).

I think I finally understand what you're doing. You're just trying too hard.

Does anyone really have high hopes for Hak Ju Lee? He's not that good of a prospect, is he? He's fast and tiny. I don't think he does much else.

PenFoe's wife told me that, too.

PenPho

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1388 on: August 09, 2010, 12:51:05 PM »
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:49:24 PM
Quote from: Slaky on August 09, 2010, 12:47:29 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:42:42 PM
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

Can't argue that. I suppose I'm more looking at it to where this situation occurs if the Cubs make a choice to shed salary, and consequently suck (more than this year).

I think I finally understand what you're doing. You're just trying too hard.

Does anyone really have high hopes for Hak Ju Lee? He's not that good of a prospect, is he? He's fast and tiny. I don't think he does much else.

PenFoe's wife told me that, too.

My wife told you that you're trying too hard?
"I use exit numbers because they tell me how many miles are left since they're based off of the molested"

Eli

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1389 on: August 09, 2010, 01:13:20 PM »
Quote from: Slaky on August 09, 2010, 12:47:29 PM
Does anyone really have high hopes for Hak Ju Lee? He's not that good of a prospect, is he? He's fast and tiny. I don't think he does much else.

From what I understand, he's really, really fast.  Like, he might be the fastest player in the majors if he came up today.  I guess that's worth something.  His defense is also outstanding.

I think he'd profile more as an Elvis Andrus type of player, where most of his value came from his speed and defense.  If he's truly elite at those two things (which I think he is), he'll be able to help.  His offensive numbers aren't great in Peoria, but he's young for that level and should develop more in the next few years.  Then the Cubs can move him to third base to displace Blake Dewitt.

He's one of the Cubs' top 5 prospects, but it's not as exciting because he doesn't project as an offensive powerhouse and that's what usually gets the most attention.

Yeti

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1390 on: August 09, 2010, 01:40:03 PM »
Quote from: PenPho on August 09, 2010, 12:51:05 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:49:24 PM
Quote from: Slaky on August 09, 2010, 12:47:29 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:42:42 PM
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

Can't argue that. I suppose I'm more looking at it to where this situation occurs if the Cubs make a choice to shed salary, and consequently suck (more than this year).

I think I finally understand what you're doing. You're just trying too hard.

Does anyone really have high hopes for Hak Ju Lee? He's not that good of a prospect, is he? He's fast and tiny. I don't think he does much else.

PenFoe's wife told me that, too.

My wife told you that you're trying too hard?

........Yes?......


Slaky

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1391 on: August 09, 2010, 02:00:30 PM »
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 01:13:20 PM
Quote from: Slaky on August 09, 2010, 12:47:29 PM
Does anyone really have high hopes for Hak Ju Lee? He's not that good of a prospect, is he? He's fast and tiny. I don't think he does much else.

From what I understand, he's really, really fast.  Like, he might be the fastest player in the majors if he came up today.  I guess that's worth something.  His defense is also outstanding.

I think he'd profile more as an Elvis Andrus type of player, where most of his value came from his speed and defense.  If he's truly elite at those two things (which I think he is), he'll be able to help.  His offensive numbers aren't great in Peoria, but he's young for that level and should develop more in the next few years.  Then the Cubs can move him to third base to displace Blake Dewitt.

He's one of the Cubs' top 5 prospects, but it's not as exciting because he doesn't project as an offensive powerhouse and that's what usually gets the most attention.

So his prospect rating is still pretty high eh? Either way it doesn't sound like he's a 2011 arrival.

Eli

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1392 on: August 09, 2010, 02:07:56 PM »
Quote from: Slaky on August 09, 2010, 02:00:30 PM
So his prospect rating is still pretty high eh? Either way it doesn't sound like he's a 2011 arrival.

Nope, 2012 at the earliest. More likely in 2013.

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1393 on: August 09, 2010, 02:20:40 PM »
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 02:07:56 PM
Quote from: Slaky on August 09, 2010, 02:00:30 PM
So his prospect rating is still pretty high eh? Either way it doesn't sound like he's a 2011 arrival.

Nope, 2012 at the earliest. More likely in 2013.

Vitters, Castro, Lee and Soriano L-to-R in 2012.
The 37th Tenet of Pexism:  Apestink is terrible.

Tonker

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Re: Pollyellon banned me
« Reply #1394 on: August 09, 2010, 02:22:14 PM »
Quote from: PenPho on August 09, 2010, 12:51:05 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:49:24 PM
Quote from: Slaky on August 09, 2010, 12:47:29 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:42:42 PM
Quote from: Eli on August 09, 2010, 12:33:54 PM
Quote from: Yeti on August 09, 2010, 12:24:43 PM
From there, the reason you would do this move (Ramirez->1st, DeWitt->3rd) is mainly because your farm system is deeper in the middle infield than the corner infield spots (unless HOFF comes back up, of course). And yes, many of those guys down there are Theriots at the plate, but if they're Castros defensively, they'll be serviceable.

If the Cubs move Ramirez to first, Dewitt to third and bring up a random middle infielder to play second (say, Darwin Barney), they may not even get 40 home runs from their entire starting infield.  Everyone would need to field like Ozzie Smith for them to be serviceable.

Can't argue that. I suppose I'm more looking at it to where this situation occurs if the Cubs make a choice to shed salary, and consequently suck (more than this year).

I think I finally understand what you're doing. You're just trying too hard.

Does anyone really have high hopes for Hak Ju Lee? He's not that good of a prospect, is he? He's fast and tiny. I don't think he does much else.

PenFoe's wife told me that, too.

My wife told you that you're trying too hard?

No.  That you're fast and tiny.
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