Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[Eli]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night. 

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

[Slaky]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night. 

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

If any Cubs farm pitcher turns out like Zambrano from a production standpoint how would any of you not be thrilled? Big Z was fucking awesome.

[Eli]

I will say that I think BA and other places like it have gotten better at evaluating prospects because there's so much more info available now. I'd have to think their rankings are more reliable than they were a decade ago.

[CT III]

Man, I remember when Cubs' fans were upset that Choi got traded for Derrek Lee.  Good times.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night.  

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

I realize I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth.  I just couldn't resist trolling Pen's optimism.  I am optimistic about Epstein's regime getting this franchise on the right  track; but at the same time I confess to being a little weary about these fancy statfaggy prospect projections, the flameouts of the 2001 prospects (Zambrano excepted) leaving me a little scarred.  In the end, I'm subverting my skepticism to Theo dongchuggery.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night. 

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

If any Cubs farm pitcher turns out like Zambrano from a production standpoint how would any of you not be thrilled? Big Z was fucking awesome.

Agreed.  I still hold on to totally fantastical thoughts of Big Z collecting the pennant-clinching Save for this franchise..

[R-V]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night.  

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

I realize I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth.  I just couldn't resist trolling Pen's optimism.  I am optimistic about Epstein's regime getting this franchise on the right  track; but at the same time I confess to being a little weary about these fancy statfaggy prospect projections, the flameouts of the 2001 prospects (Zambrano excepted) leaving me a little scarred.  In the end, I'm subverting my skepticism to Theo dongchuggery.

Fancy projections that include watching (or "scouting" to use an industry term) players play baseball?

[Saul Goodman]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night. 

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

F—— prospects, get Francoeurs.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night.  

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

I realize I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth.  I just couldn't resist trolling Pen's optimism.  I am optimistic about Epstein's regime getting this franchise on the right  track; but at the same time I confess to being a little weary about these fancy statfaggy prospect projections, the flameouts of the 2001 prospects (Zambrano excepted) leaving me a little scarred.  In the end, I'm subverting my skepticism to Theo dongchuggery.

Fancy projections that include watching (or "scouting" to use an industry term) players play baseball?

Sure, why not?

[J. Walter Weatherman]

I will say that I think BA and other places like it have gotten better at evaluating prospects because there's so much more info available now. I'd have to think their rankings are more reliable than they were a decade ago.

Previously, on Desipio...

A very poorly-written but still worthwhile look at how reliable Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects rankings are.

[PenFoe]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night.  

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

I realize I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth.  I just couldn't resist trolling Pen's optimism.  I am optimistic about Epstein's regime getting this franchise on the right  track; but at the same time I confess to being a little weary about these fancy statfaggy prospect projections, the flameouts of the 2001 prospects (Zambrano excepted) leaving me a little scarred.  In the end, I'm subverting my skepticism to Theo dongchuggery.

You know that was 13 years ago, right? 
Under a totally different regime? 

Also, 4 of those 6 guys in 2001 played fairly significant roles on a team that was 5 outs from the World Series two years later.

Admittedly, Juan Cruz's significant role was mostly to be shitty. 

[J. Walter Weatherman]

I will say that I think BA and other places like it have gotten better at evaluating prospects because there's so much more info available now. I'd have to think their rankings are more reliable than they were a decade ago.

Previously, on Desipio...

A very poorly-written but still worthwhile look at how reliable Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects rankings are.

Also, while trying to find that blog post again, I also happened upon this undergrad thesis (with all the caveats that comes with)...

The results of the analysis in this study show that prospect ranking on the lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels is highly correlated with future Major League value. For every ten spots higher a player is ranked on a BA top 100 list, he is expected to produce .7 more WAR in his first five Major League seasons. For BP, a rise of ten spots predicts 1 more WAR; for Sickels it predicts .6. These results support my hypothesis that these publications, which scout and analyze the prospects they rank, are able to identify players who will produce more at the Major League level. It does indeed matter how highly a player is ranked.

[Quality Start Machine]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night.  

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

I realize I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth.  I just couldn't resist trolling Pen's optimism.  I am optimistic about Epstein's regime getting this franchise on the right  track; but at the same time I confess to being a little weary about these fancy statfaggy prospect projections, the flameouts of the 2001 prospects (Zambrano excepted) leaving me a little scarred.  In the end, I'm subverting my skepticism to Theo dongchuggery.

You know that was 13 years ago, right? 
Under a totally different regime? 

Also, 4 of those 6 guys in 2001 played fairly significant roles on a team that was 5 outs from the World Series two years later.

Admittedly, Juan Cruz's significant role was mostly to be shitty sit in the bullpen while Baker kept Prior out there with a 10 run lead. 

Still bittered.

[PenFoe]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night.  

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

I realize I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth.  I just couldn't resist trolling Pen's optimism.  I am optimistic about Epstein's regime getting this franchise on the right  track; but at the same time I confess to being a little weary about these fancy statfaggy prospect projections, the flameouts of the 2001 prospects (Zambrano excepted) leaving me a little scarred.  In the end, I'm subverting my skepticism to Theo dongchuggery.

You know that was 13 years ago, right?  
Under a totally different regime?  

Also, 4 of those 6 guys in 2001 played fairly significant roles on a team that was 5 outs from the World Series two years later.

Admittedly, Juan Cruz's significant role was mostly to be shitty sit in the bullpen while Baker kept Prior out there with a 10 run lead.  

Still bittered.

Sorry Apex.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night.  

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.

Huey was expressing a hope. What's wrong with that?

I realize I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth.  I just couldn't resist trolling Pen's optimism.  I am optimistic about Epstein's regime getting this franchise on the right  track; but at the same time I confess to being a little weary about these fancy statfaggy prospect projections, the flameouts of the 2001 prospects (Zambrano excepted) leaving me a little scarred.  In the end, I'm subverting my skepticism to Theo dongchuggery.

You know that was 13 years ago, right? 
Under a totally different regime? 

Also, 4 of those 6 guys in 2001 played fairly significant roles on a team that was 5 outs from the World Series two years later.

Admittedly, Juan Cruz's significant role was mostly to be shitty. 

Boy that's really a stretch.  

Choi was opening day first baseman but contributed basically nothing to the team's success after getting bonked on the head in the legendary Wood/Clemens interleague game...in June.  He accrued 71 Plate Appearances the rest of the way as his position was manned by Eric Karros and Randall Simon the last 3 months of the season.

Pattersons' season ended in July 6th, and his position was manned by Kenny Lofton.

Cruz made a whopping nine appearances from June 1st through the end of the year after having been banished out of the rotation in favor of pitchers who didn't suck.  He also hurled a whole inning against Atlanta in the postseason.

I think it's fair to say, in fact, that had centerfield been manned by Patterson--who was probably due for a regression similar to the one he did enjoy in September of 2004--and 1st base by Choi, rather than Lofton and Karros/Simon respctively, that the Cubs would not have made the playoffs (let alone come with 5 outs of the pennant)

And the difference in regime and distance in years has nothing to do with this.  It's about the evaluation of prospects regardless of who was credited with developing said prospects, the point about BA refining their evaluation process since 2001 being a far more cogent point to bring up as a rebuttal than the specious points you bring up.