Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[Bort]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

He probably looks much more respectable at even just 10 lbs lighter. And I don't think that kind of weight loss is out of the question.

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

Eli isn't going to be happy unless the Cubs draft Mike Trout and Bryce Harper combined into one.

Bryke Harpout?

Myce Trouper

That sounds like a band Pitchfork would give 6.3 stars to.

Causing you to sell all your Myce Trouper import CDs.

Please. I only collect Myce Trouper demos on acetate.

[R-V]

The results, with Schwarber added to the mix...

Name                W     H    BMI
Ty Wigginton       230   72   31.2

Ugh, that guy KILLS the Cubs.

[Quality Start Machine]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

He probably looks much more respectable at even just 10 lbs lighter. And I don't think that kind of weight loss is out of the question.

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

I think devising a new height/weight metric to replace OPS could be a game changer.

[PenFoe]

CubsDen plugs in Schwarber to the current list of top prospects.

1. Kris Bryant
2. Javier Baez
3. Albert Almora
4. Arismendy Alcantara
5. Kyle Schwarber
6. Jorge Soler

Obviously hard to rate Edwards since he's missed the whole season, and I don't know who of the guys playing right now (and under-performing to the tune of a solid A-) who be higher than Schwarber, but nice to see him quickly in a pretty high slot.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

CubsDen plugs in Schwarber to the current list of top prospects.

1. Kris Bryant
2. Javier Baez
3. Albert Almora
4. Arismendy Alcantara
5. Kyle Schwarber
6. Jorge Soler

Obviously hard to rate Edwards since he's missed the whole season, and I don't know who of the guys playing right now (and under-performing to the tune of a solid A-) who be higher than Schwarber, but nice to see him quickly in a pretty high slot.

Incidentally, 97 mph fastballs appear to be terrifying.

[Eli]

CubsDen plugs in Schwarber to the current list of top prospects.

1. Kris Bryant


2. Javier Baez













3. Albert Almora
4. Arismendy Alcantara
5. Kyle Schwarber
6. Jorge Soler

Tweaked.

[Eli]

Actually, I'd put Alcantara ahead of Almora at this point.

[Slaky]

Actually, I'd put Alcantara ahead of Almora at this point.

I'm actually at the point where if Baez and Bryant both hit - anyone else that manages to be useful at the ML level on that list is gravy. The fact is we're mostly really actually expecting two guys to be up in the next calendar year who can be monstrous major league power hitters.

That's kind of insane. You can build around those two and Rizzo whether it's through shrewd trade/FA signings (cheap vets) or prospects eventually reaching slightly above replacement level ML ability.

Plus, with Jed Hoyer admitting they plan to spend this winter and knowing how many SPs are hitting the market, especially ones with ties to Jepstink, I think...I think this is happening.

Like soon.

[Eli]

I'm actually at the point where if Baez and Bryant both hit - anyone else that manages to be useful at the ML level on that list is gravy. The fact is we're mostly really actually expecting two guys to be up in the next calendar year who can be monstrous major league power hitters.

I think they'll need some minor leaguers besides Baez and Bryant to contribute, unless they plan to double payroll and just buy a whole new team. Which would be fine, but pretty surprising. They need several new rotation pieces and an entire outfield, at minimum.

[R-V]

Actually, I'd put Alcantara ahead of Almora at this point.

I'm actually at the point where if Baez and Bryant both hit - anyone else that manages to be useful at the ML level on that list is gravy. The fact is we're mostly really actually expecting two guys to be up in the next calendar year who can be monstrous major league power hitters.

That's kind of insane. You can build around those two and Rizzo whether it's through shrewd trade/FA signings (cheap vets) or prospects eventually reaching slightly above replacement level ML ability.

Plus, with Jed Hoyer admitting they plan to spend this winter and knowing how many SPs are hitting the market, especially ones with ties to Jepstink, I think...I think this is happening.

Like soon.

Yes this. If Bryant is the Ryan Braun clone that Eli promised us he'd be, and Baez or even Soler if his body doesn't melt are good, then they are on their way.

I was actually just doing some cursory research on Price vs. Lester vs. Masterson. Price is clearly preferable to Lester (better, younger, less mileage on his arm) but if the choice is between giving up Baez and Almora to get Price, or just paying a truck full of Ricketts gold doubloons to get Lester, I want Lester.

As for Masterson, I look at him as a consolation prize if they don't manage to extend Samardzija. He's the same age but has two more seasons of mileage on his arm and has had his fastball velocity drop to about 91 this year after sitting around 93 consistently for the last 5 years or so.

[Slaky]

Actually, I'd put Alcantara ahead of Almora at this point.

I'm actually at the point where if Baez and Bryant both hit - anyone else that manages to be useful at the ML level on that list is gravy. The fact is we're mostly really actually expecting two guys to be up in the next calendar year who can be monstrous major league power hitters.

That's kind of insane. You can build around those two and Rizzo whether it's through shrewd trade/FA signings (cheap vets) or prospects eventually reaching slightly above replacement level ML ability.

Plus, with Jed Hoyer admitting they plan to spend this winter and knowing how many SPs are hitting the market, especially ones with ties to Jepstink, I think...I think this is happening.

Like soon.

Yes this. If Bryant is the Ryan Braun clone that Eli promised us he'd be, and Baez or even Soler if his body doesn't melt are good, then they are on their way.

I was actually just doing some cursory research on Price vs. Lester vs. Masterson. Price is clearly preferable to Lester (better, younger, less mileage on his arm) but if the choice is between giving up Baez and Almora to get Price, or just paying a truck full of Ricketts gold doubloons to get Lester, I want Lester.

As for Masterson, I look at him as a consolation prize if they don't manage to extend Samardzija. He's the same age but has two more seasons of mileage on his arm and has had his fastball velocity drop to about 91 this year after sitting around 93 consistently for the last 5 years or so.

Consensus seems to be that Masterson would be a Bosio wet dream to work with.

Besides that - I trust Jepstink on their SP signings. Jackson hasn't worked out but they've been able to put together a solid rotation for at least three years in a row now. That's cool.

I worry more about the offense being more reliable. Look at a guy like Valbuena and what he's doing. You can have a couple of those - they don't all have to, nor will they be superstars. It's not really a matter of 'buying a whole new team, like Eli said. It is a little terrifying how much hinges around Baez and Bryant coming good - but it's more likely they hit than miss at this point.

Another cool result of the megarich clubs like the Dodgers is they're going to have overpaid dudes who don't have much of a role anymore. Matt Kemp is being squeezed out of the Dodgers OF and he's making 21 million a year through 2019. The dodgers might want to unload him but guess what? They'll have to eat a ton of cash to do so. I know Kemp doesn't fit in with the Cubs now - but guys like him are going to keep popping up on teams with the big TV deals and tons of cash.

I'm talking myself into this but I think things are really, really looking up.

[R-V]

I'm actually at the point where if Baez and Bryant both hit - anyone else that manages to be useful at the ML level on that list is gravy. The fact is we're mostly really actually expecting two guys to be up in the next calendar year who can be monstrous major league power hitters.

I think they'll need some minor leaguers besides Baez and Bryant to contribute, unless they plan to double payroll and just buy a whole new team. Which would be fine, but pretty surprising. They need several new rotation pieces and an entire outfield, at minimum.

Payroll this year is around $93 M. Before taking arbitration into account, they've only got $32 M committed for next year. Even if you figure that goes up to $50 M or so when you take arb raises into account for guys like Wood, Valbuena and Arrieta, that's still at least $40 M for Epstink to play with, and that's not counting the funds they "banked" when they missed out on Tanaka. They're going to have a big pile of money to work with this offseason even if you assume it doesn't jump significantly above $100 M.

[Eli]

Payroll this year is around $93 M. Before taking arbitration into account, they've only got $32 M committed for next year. Even if you figure that goes up to $50 M or so when you take arb raises into account for guys like Wood, Valbuena and Arrieta, that's still at least $40 M for Epstink to play with, and that's not counting the funds they "banked" when they missed out on Tanaka. They're going to have a big pile of money to work with this offseason even if you assume it doesn't jump significantly above $100 M.

Most likely. Which should be fun. I think a lot of it will depend on whether they trade/extend Shark. Given the "saved" Tanaka funds and alleged new revenues coming, it'd be great to see them extend Shark, then get two of Price/Lester/Masterson/Scherzer (though he'll cost too much to be worth it, probably). Given that they'll just cost money, Lester and Masterson would be ideal. Probably a pipe dream, I realize.

[Powdered Toast Man]

Payroll this year is around $93 M. Before taking arbitration into account, they've only got $32 M committed for next year. Even if you figure that goes up to $50 M or so when you take arb raises into account for guys like Wood, Valbuena and Arrieta, that's still at least $40 M for Epstink to play with, and that's not counting the funds they "banked" when they missed out on Tanaka. They're going to have a big pile of money to work with this offseason even if you assume it doesn't jump significantly above $100 M.

Most likely. Which should be fun. I think a lot of it will depend on whether they trade/extend Shark. Given the "saved" Tanaka funds and alleged new revenues coming, it'd be great to see them extend Shark, then get two of Price/Lester/Masterson/Scherzer (though he'll cost too much to be worth it, probably). Given that they'll just cost money, Lester and Masterson would be ideal. Probably a pipe dream, I realize.

Some outfielders would be nice.

[Quality Start Machine]

Actually, I'd put Alcantara ahead of Almora at this point.

Alcantara is closer, but Almora has more upside.

Almora's father has been fighting prostate cancer, and I'm guessing it's been a distraction for him. So I'm not putting too much stock in him not destroying the Florida State League like he did earlier this season.