Desipio Message Board

I like the one where the mouse kills the cat.

Quote from: Dr. Nguyen Van Falk on September 29, 2009, 11:58:13 AM

Quote from: Pre on September 29, 2009, 11:23:50 AM
The problem with these kinds of studies is that they ignore the fact that 4th down
plays don't exist in a vacuum.  First off, much of NFL defensive strategy is predicated
on the fact that if you hold a team on 3rd down they are going to kick, this
frequently inflates the yardage on 3rd down when defenses give up the 4 yard check
down on 3rd and 8 or whatever.  In this genius' math, he uses 3rd down results to
predict 4th down results.  So the fact that defenses will usually let a team pick up
50 to 75% of 3rd and long influences his math to think that of course you go for it
on 4th down because you can get that 50 to 75% again.

The second thing these studies don't factor in is macro-game situations.  Like if you're
up by 2 late in the game, maybe if you go for it and get it then you greatly increase
your chance to get 7 more points and winning by 9, where if you fail then you greatly
increase you chance of losing by 1.  This is similar to all the anti-bunt numbers in
baseball.  All of them use run probability to conclude that giving up the out lowers
your chance at a big inning.  But in a lot of scenarios late in the game you don't need
a 7 run inning, you just need that 1 run, and you'll trade away the chance for a big
inning for a chance for 1.

Sure, some situations might call for more aggression on 4th down, but there's way too
many interconnected aspects of this to devolve it to a simple 'solve for x' kind of problem.

edit - Also, they don't factor in individual team's abilities.  If you have a bad ass defense and
a horrific o-line, you're more likely to benefit from kicking/playing conservative on offense vs
if you have a fantastic o-line and bad defense.

Well, yeah... As far as the football decisions involved here go, these are all baseline, average calculations. He's looking at a league-wide sample across 3 seasons and focusing only on fourth down situations in the first quarters of games.

If you were to try to apply this study practically on the field, you'd absolutely need to take into account game-, team- and situation-specific factors. And with football, far more than a game like baseball, strategic decisions on the part of the play callers is a huge factor, too.

He accounts for these variables in various ways, in part by simply bracketing some of them out:

QuoteBy describing the values of situations in terms of expected point differences, I am implicitly assuming that a team that wants to maximize its chances of winning should be risk-neutral over points scored. Although this is clearly not a good assumption late in a game, I show in Section IV that it is an excellent approximation for the early part. For that reason, I focus on the first quarter.

Focusing on the first quarter has a second advantage: it makes it reasonable to neglect effects involving the end of a half. Because play in the second quarter begins at the point where the first quarter ended, the value of a given situation in the first quarter almost certainly does not vary greatly with the time remaining.

But, again, Romer's purpose was not to draft a strategy guide for NFL football.

This was a paper on economics and the assumption that rational agents maximize choices.

(And I think the disparities between observed behavior and his analysis' recommendation of optimal behavior is big enough that his overall economic conclusions—that firms don't necessarily maximize outcomes the way simpler models assume, for reasons that may be unclear—probably remain valid or at least relevant, even if his baseline analysis is off the mark in many specific situations.)

But where does the meat go?

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on September 29, 2009, 11:29:33 AM
He wrote back!

Quote-----Original Message-----
From: Al Yellon [mailto:al@yellon.org]
Sent: Friday, September 25, 2009 2:21 PM
To: Chuck Gitles
Subject: Re: Heh

Disingenuous. Introducing me to your kid and giving me your phone numbers has nothing to do with the lies that you posted.

And don't put lies in quotes, because they were -- and are -- exactly that.
Lies. Untruths. Falsehoods.

If you would like to know the truth, let's meet and hash this out.

I tried to be conciliatory by the end of the email and you decided to call "gutless" again, which is BS.

So which is it? Gutless? Or ready to be an actual human being and solve a problem?

Your move.

Al

Here's my response to his response.

QuoteYou are really unbelievable.

Yes, introducing you to my kid and giving you my phone number has nothing to do with "lies" that I posted.  It has to do with you suggesting I was using the "anonymity of the Internet" as a shield to cower behind.  See, when I wrote, "As to 'anonymity of the Internet'," that's what I was talking about.

I put "lies" in quotes because, unless you are talking about a message board post from March 24th, 2009, I can't even find an instance of me commenting on your "work" on the book.  I used the scare quotes because, without any evidence, your use of the word "lies" does not have the conventional meaning of "lies."  Oh, and that post from the message board?  It had to do with how much Kasey got paid and that Kasey had been culling scorecards for years.  Unless you are suggesting that it was a lie that he had been collecting scorecards, then I have no idea what you are talking about.  Maybe somewhere else I posted "lies", but I have no idea where and when.

But even that isn't the real issue.  I called you gutless because of the way you have reacted.  Instead of making the effort of direct contact, you chose the passive-aggressive approach of banning me from your site.  That's cowardly, especially if you believe I defamed you.  Even more so given that you have my contact information.

Furthermore, the banning happened within the past few days.  Your stated reason for banning me is some unknown comments from months back.  So, either you just discovered these "comments" or you needed an excuse to ban me now because of something else.

The bottom line is this: For an internet blogger, you have skin thinner than that of a molted snake.  Your opinions are out there for everyone to see and comment on.  Bloggers have to be prepared to handle criticism, even if some of it is over the top.  I'd love to see the e-mail boxes of Andrew Sullivan or James Taranto or Josh Marshall.  They probably get more hate mail in a day than perceived insults you've received in years.  Yet they handle it.  How many people have you banned?  Just how cozy do you need your little cocoon to be?  Are you really that much of a control freak or are you simply scared that your statements cannot withstand the scrutiny of the mass public?  Given your reactions of non-engagement and passive retribution, my money's on scared.

As to meeting with you face-to-face, no thanks.  I can't see what good would come from the use of my time.  I have little interest in your mutual admiration and deletion of contrary opinion society and you aren't Virgil Sollozzo.

There's my move.  I'm done.

Why did you guys use typewriters?

Quote from: MAD on September 29, 2009, 11:14:17 AM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on September 29, 2009, 11:07:37 AM

Quote from: TDubbs on September 29, 2009, 10:20:34 AM

Quote from: IrishYeti on September 29, 2009, 10:11:29 AM

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on September 29, 2009, 10:08:25 AM

Quote from: ChuckD on September 26, 2009, 10:02:18 PM
Fuck Penn State.

Edit: And fuck Happy Valley and their bullshit chanting while we're at it.

Blocked punts are the most exciting plays in college football.

TD's excite me more

I like the hot college chicks in the stands wearing next to nothing.

People went to Concordia football games?

Concordia has a football team?

I went to 1 game in 4 years.  They were awful.  They won 4 games in my 4 years there, and 2 of them were during my freshman year. 
This year, however, they are 3-0.  Granted, they haven't played the best competition, but Big Cat Williams is scheduling them.

Quote from: IrishYeti on September 29, 2009, 10:11:29 AM

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on September 29, 2009, 10:08:25 AM

Quote from: ChuckD on September 26, 2009, 10:02:18 PM
Fuck Penn State.

Edit: And fuck Happy Valley and their bullshit chanting while we're at it.

Blocked punts are the most exciting plays in college football.

TD's excite me more

I like the hot college chicks in the stands wearing next to nothing.

Quote from: BH on September 28, 2009, 11:12:23 AM

Quote from: Poon on September 28, 2009, 11:07:29 AM

Quote from: Dr. Nguyen Van Falk on September 28, 2009, 11:02:18 AM

Quote from: Poon on September 28, 2009, 10:57:39 AM
Since the Lions game was blacked out here in Detroit, Fox aired the Min/SF game (nothing on CBS).  The announcers mics were muted the entire game which I believe was to further punish Lions fans.  Not only did they miss their team actually winning at home (and tix were going for $10 day of), but they got a half busted telecast of the only game being shown.

Good of Jim Schwartz to have his team share the celebration with such great fans.

It was rather entertaining at the bar I went to so I could catch the Bears game.  All during the 4th quarter people were filing in telling them to put the Lions game on. 

Dude, it's blacked out.

No, they're on right now!

Dude, it's blacked out because you people don't go to the games.

It's blacked out here?

Dude, it's blacked out.

I was in detroit this weekend. Sweet Jebus is getting drunk cheap. It was $10 for a bucket of any 5 beers.

How upset were you that you went all the way up there to watch the Lions at a bar and found out you couldn't?  You probably ate that place to the ground.

Oh I enjoy this show.  Weebs will attempt to ruin it, but it won't be able to be ruined. 

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on September 27, 2009, 04:18:47 PM
Genius call--a pass to get you first and goal at the 10 instead of a QB sneak to get you first and 10 at the 13.

This team is being coached by a bunch of fucking retards, and being played by a bunch of incompetents*.  Holy shit this team is awful right now.

*You'd think there would be a page in the RB training manual that says "don't stretch for a TD when you're held up and vulnerable somewhere inside the 3, because a fumble is likely," and that'd be taught to RB's--but Forte and the Bears got bailed out of a very poor decision, and I'm not sure what evidence there was to bail Forte out.

This game is still winnable at 13-0, but I feel like it may also ride on this 4th down.

I totally hate it when players try their hardest to get the ball into the end zone and score points for the team that I'm rooting for.  What a cocksac.

Quote from: Eli on September 27, 2009, 10:13:56 AM

Quote from: Pre on September 27, 2009, 09:20:52 AM

Quote from: BC on September 27, 2009, 12:36:04 AM
Gravity is obviously not impacting the gal from Florida...

Girls frequently wear these things called a "bra" which hold their boobs up in a pleasing manor.

BC learned something today.

You got the A.  The B.  The C.  And the D.  D is the biggest.

Quote from: Internet Apex on September 25, 2009, 07:35:06 PM
I just want to get this good and lubed a few months early. Because it's gonna be rough in here. Oh, shit yeah.

You should go to bed early tonight

What a fuckstick. . .

"And about dating broke ass bitches....

let me tell you all a true story. It's somewhat pointless, but what the hell, it's Friday and I'm wating to get out of here.

Back before I met my wife, I started casually dating a teacher that I met through mutual acquaintances at a bar. She had very little money. She was divorced with a son and was always broke. I didn't have a lot, but at the time I taught and worked a second job, so I had some left over. Well, we had been dating maybe a month or so and she needed some money. She never asked me to borrow it, but she had talked about being about $500 short because of some unexpected expenses. I had enough to loan it to her, so I did. She made a big, big fuss about it only being a loan and that she would definitely pay me back. At the time, I didn't care.

Well...we had a couple of arguments in the next week or so, and within two weeks of my lending her the money, we broke up. I didn't care, really. Of course, she never paid me back and hasn't to this day.

At the time, I worked with a great old man at Dillards. His name was BA and he was 76 years old. We worked together almost five years and though he was old enough to be my grandfather, he and I were really good friends. One night we were working together and I was bitching about this girl not paying me back that money. He looked at me and asked me how long we dated. I told him about 6-8 weeks. He asked me did we have sex. I laughed and said yes. He asked me if it was enjoyable. I said it was. He looked at me and then said, "Well, Vance, you should just consider that 500 payment for services rendered."'

Quote from: Indolent Reader on September 25, 2009, 09:51:37 AM
AT&T question for you cellphone dudes:

-Back in February, my wife renewed her contract with AT&T for two years.  In exchange she got a complete piece of crap phone.  She has since decided that she hates this phone so much that she wants an Iphone.  AT&T, however, will not give her the "new subscriber" price (ie, the $200 subsidy), because she is in the middle of a contract.  This does not make sense to my caveman mind - why would she be treated as a 3G subscriber when she has never had the benefit of the lowest pricing? (other than corporate greed, of course).  

Any advice on what to do next?  I've tried the AT&T store and 800 number to no avail.

Thanks.

Scream and holler until they give you what you want.  That usually works for me.

Quote from: Weebs on September 24, 2009, 08:04:14 PM
It's Lost, but without the island.  Watch it.

So it's unrealistic b/c there's no island?  They should totally be on an island.  With a monster.

Quote from: Eli on September 23, 2009, 09:31:35 PM
So, this show is really funny.  Jane Lynch's character is just awesomethe exact same as it is in everything she's in.

Yes, I'm raving about Glee. 

"I'm sick of hearing people complain, 'I'm riddled with this disease,' or 'I was in that tsunami.'"

Typecast'd

Quote from: Fork on September 23, 2009, 07:55:02 AM

Quote from: Jon on September 22, 2009, 03:59:13 PM

Quote from: TDubbs on September 22, 2009, 03:44:06 PM

Quote from: Jon on September 22, 2009, 03:33:44 PM

Quote from: Fork on September 22, 2009, 03:28:57 PM

Quote from: Dr. Nguyen Van Falk on September 22, 2009, 02:34:46 PM

Quote from: Eli on September 22, 2009, 01:48:28 PM
Guh.

Not sure what you were expecting.

I think the only thing to expect in this thread would be a litany of one-liners by yours truly, which eventually culminate in TDubbs spewing about how I have better ways to spend my time and am wasting the time of others, to which I respond with something along the lines of, but not necessarily, "blow me".

Ad infinitum.

You could really say that about any thread here.

But what about this one?

Well this one is mostly about disappointment.

How can you be disappointed when you get exactly what you expect?

I expect horribly unfunny posts by you, along with boring hockey ones, and even when you post them, every single time, I'm disappointed.