Desipio Message Board

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 21, 2018, 02:07:58 PM

Quote from: SKO on May 21, 2018, 02:01:48 PM
Almora has definitely been the biggest surprise of all of the Cubs young players because it's pretty hard to find a dude who was as bad as he was his first go-round in AA and ended up being a solid major league hitter. It really is amazing to go from an organization that couldn't teach Corey Patterson or Shawon Dunston how to make a single goddamn adjustment to seeing how they've turned Kris Bryant from Troy Glaus into Joey Votto, cut Javy down from a 40% K to a 20% K guy, apparently fixed the whole in Schwarber's swing, etc. There's not a lot of historical comps for the kinds of changes they've been able to get guys to make.

Also converting WillyCon into a beast catcher.  if Jim Hendry were still in charge, I feel like Contreras would be out of baseball by now.

Quite possible. Not to mention Rizzo going from a guy we once hoped would be the next Adam LaRoche to Anthony Goddamn Rizzo.

Almora has definitely been the biggest surprise of all of the Cubs young players because it's pretty hard to find a dude who was as bad as he was his first go-round in AA and ended up being a solid major league hitter. It really is amazing to go from an organization that couldn't teach Corey Patterson or Shawon Dunston how to make a single goddamn adjustment to seeing how they've turned Kris Bryant from Troy Glaus into Joey Votto, cut Javy down from a 40% K to a 20% K guy, apparently fixed the whole in Schwarber's swing, etc. There's not a lot of historical comps for the kinds of changes they've been able to get guys to make.

Quote from: Oleg on May 21, 2018, 01:54:06 PM

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 21, 2018, 01:27:57 PM
DPD.

I do enjoy the bumping of these years-old threads since I automatically go the beginning and see just how fucking stupid we all are.

Dude...

Quote from: InternetApex on July 07, 2014, 04:38:27 PM
In 2016, the Cubs will be a really good team. And they'll need a 4th outfielder. Boner. Time.

I've always said Apex was the only smart one. I said it at least once. I may have thought it. He's not the dumbest one, at least.

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 21, 2018, 01:26:59 PM

Quote from: Oleg on May 21, 2018, 01:07:03 PM

Quote from: SKO on May 21, 2018, 12:19:05 PM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 21, 2018, 09:52:26 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 21, 2018, 08:28:14 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 21, 2018, 08:15:44 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 21, 2018, 08:13:43 AM
He's hitting .306/.366/.388 against RHP so far this year. Small sample size but if Al is going to be average or better against RHP, and Happ/Schwarber keep hitting, let's just not even bother with the Jason Heyward thing anymore and just go with the All First Round Pick outfield until Happ becomes a utility player next year after they sign Harper.

Trade Heyward to the Nats after signing Harper. Even Stevens.

After all of the years of the Cubs first round draft picks being the saddest fucking list in history fielding a lineup that has Baez, Almora, Bryant, Schwarber, and Happ all in it and kicking ass is definitely bonerworthy.

Imagine if Little & Lange pan out and join the rotation.

So according to B-Ref of the 63 Cubs first round draft picks before 2016, 42 of them made the majors, so that 66.7% "success" rate was actually higher than I expected. Those 42 players have produced 281.4 bWAR combined in the majors. Unfortunately, 109.3 of that bWAR is Palmeiro and Donaldson and all of 2.9 of those wins were for the Cubs. All told the Cubs have gotten a whopping 96 bWAR total in a Cub uniform from their 63 first round picks. That's incredibly sad, and Bryant/Baez/Almora/Happ/Schwarber represent 38% of that.

Prior/Wood/Patterson/Palmeiro/Dunston/Harkey/Martz/Glanville/Orie/Derrick May/Cashner/Jerry Tab were all of the other Cubs positive value first round picks, combining for a total of 71.4 bWAR, but they were also hurt by 14 dudes who produced negative value in the majors, including some guy named Scot Thompson who was worth a whopping -4.4 bWAR.

It's almost like we should be enjoying what we're seeing from this team.

OH CHECK OUT THE SUPER HIPSTER RATIONAL COOL FAN WHO DOESN'T HAVE EMOTIONS AND THINKS HE'S SUPERIOR BECAUSE HE'S NOT KICKING AND SCREAMING LIKE A COKED UP CHIP CARAY AT THE END OF TWO INNINGS BECAUSE THESE MISERABLE FUCKSTICKS AND THEIR ASSHOLE MANAGER WHO CAN GO GET FUCKED AREN'T WINNING IN THE FASHION THAT'S EASIEST ON MY NERVES HOW DARE THEY WHY WON'T SOMEBODY THINK OF THE FANS NO BUT SERIOUSLY I'M SUPER COOL AND NORMAL IN REAL LIFE THIS IS HOW I ACT ON TWITTER WHICH MAKES THINGS OKAY AND DOESN'T REFLECT POORLY ON ME WHATSOEVER YOU CAN GO GET FUCKED SUPER RATIONAL FAN OR I'LL JUST FUCKING BLOCK YOU

This is pretty good, but I would never insist that my twitter account doesn't reflect poorly on me in real life. Having a twitter account at all reflects poorly, actually.

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 21, 2018, 09:52:26 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 21, 2018, 08:28:14 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 21, 2018, 08:15:44 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 21, 2018, 08:13:43 AM
He's hitting .306/.366/.388 against RHP so far this year. Small sample size but if Al is going to be average or better against RHP, and Happ/Schwarber keep hitting, let's just not even bother with the Jason Heyward thing anymore and just go with the All First Round Pick outfield until Happ becomes a utility player next year after they sign Harper.

Trade Heyward to the Nats after signing Harper. Even Stevens.

After all of the years of the Cubs first round draft picks being the saddest fucking list in history fielding a lineup that has Baez, Almora, Bryant, Schwarber, and Happ all in it and kicking ass is definitely bonerworthy.

Imagine if Little & Lange pan out and join the rotation.

So according to B-Ref of the 63 Cubs first round draft picks before 2016, 42 of them made the majors, so that 66.7% "success" rate was actually higher than I expected. Those 42 players have produced 281.4 bWAR combined in the majors. Unfortunately, 109.3 of that bWAR is Palmeiro and Donaldson and all of 2.9 of those wins were for the Cubs. All told the Cubs have gotten a whopping 96 bWAR total in a Cub uniform from their 63 first round picks. That's incredibly sad, and Bryant/Baez/Almora/Happ/Schwarber represent 38% of that.

Prior/Wood/Patterson/Palmeiro/Dunston/Harkey/Martz/Glanville/Orie/Derrick May/Cashner/Jerry Tab were all of the other Cubs positive value first round picks, combining for a total of 71.4 bWAR, but they were also hurt by 14 dudes who produced negative value in the majors, including some guy named Scot Thompson who was worth a whopping -4.4 bWAR.

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 21, 2018, 08:15:44 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 21, 2018, 08:13:43 AM
He's hitting .306/.366/.388 against RHP so far this year. Small sample size but if Al is going to be average or better against RHP, and Happ/Schwarber keep hitting, let's just not even bother with the Jason Heyward thing anymore and just go with the All First Round Pick outfield until Happ becomes a utility player next year after they sign Harper.

Trade Heyward to the Nats after signing Harper. Even Stevens.

After all of the years of the Cubs first round draft picks being the saddest fucking list in history fielding a lineup that has Baez, Almora, Bryant, Schwarber, and Happ all in it and kicking ass is definitely bonerworthy.

He's hitting .306/.366/.388 against RHP so far this year. Small sample size but if Al is going to be average or better against RHP, and Happ/Schwarber keep hitting, let's just not even bother with the Jason Heyward thing anymore and just go with the All First Round Pick outfield until Happ becomes a utility player next year after they sign Harper.

Quote from: CBStew on May 16, 2018, 11:28:50 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 16, 2018, 09:33:30 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 16, 2018, 09:19:42 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 16, 2018, 08:15:38 AM
Bump for the game winning hit but also for hitting .260/.365/.387 on the year. The slugging isn't super sexy but that's not why he's here. Having vintage Zobrist and his OBP back is huge for the top of this lineup, and it's a pleasant surprise since I think most of us had written him off as finally going over the hill last year.

It's funny, I feel like he's always seeing a lot of pitches, but his pitches/PA is 3.66, which puts him in the middle of the pack among Cubs' non-pitchers.

I feel like he's actually swinging more often at pitches early in the count than he used to because teams are trying to take advantage of his tendency to take pitches by sneaking fastballs over on the first or second pitch.

I was always frustrated with Sandburg who almost never swing at the first pitch.  Consequently, that pitch was almost always a mid 80's fast ball over the middle of the plate and Sandburg would be down 0-1.  (writing this seems kind of silly given that Sandburg was one of the most effective Cubs' hitters in my lifetime

It obviously works for some hitters who are extremely patient and extraordinarily disciplined and know they can work a count full or at least see 4 or 5 pitches anyway, but I think in Zobrist's case one way to get around some decline in power as he gets older is to just take that first hittable pitch and swing at it instead of taking it in the hopes of getting another mistake later in the count.

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 16, 2018, 09:19:42 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 16, 2018, 08:15:38 AM
Bump for the game winning hit but also for hitting .260/.365/.387 on the year. The slugging isn't super sexy but that's not why he's here. Having vintage Zobrist and his OBP back is huge for the top of this lineup, and it's a pleasant surprise since I think most of us had written him off as finally going over the hill last year.

It's funny, I feel like he's always seeing a lot of pitches, but his pitches/PA is 3.66, which puts him in the middle of the pack among Cubs' non-pitchers.

I feel like he's actually swinging more often at pitches early in the count than he used to because teams are trying to take advantage of his tendency to take pitches by sneaking fastballs over on the first or second pitch.

Bump for the game winning hit but also for hitting .260/.365/.387 on the year. The slugging isn't super sexy but that's not why he's here. Having vintage Zobrist and his OBP back is huge for the top of this lineup, and it's a pleasant surprise since I think most of us had written him off as finally going over the hill last year.

Quote from: Tonker on May 15, 2018, 10:45:53 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 15, 2018, 09:07:13 AM

Quote from: R-V on May 15, 2018, 08:53:17 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 14, 2018, 02:19:17 PM
Okay it's the middle of May and his velocity is still down several ticks from last year and he's getting consistently rocked with a hard hit rate in the 40% range. I'm starting to think he's hurt.

The good news is, they're only 2 games out in spite of Darvish & Quintana pitching like trash so far.

The bad news is, they're obviously not going anywhere in the postseason if those two don't figure their shit out. Those two and Russell are my only serious concerns about this team.

Yeah I mean this is probably a good enough offense and bullpen to carry them to a wildcard, but Lester's peripherals haven't been as good as his results so far and he's walking a lot of guys and not going deep into games. Chatwood obviously has his own issues. I don't even see them as the favorites in this division if they don't get at least 2-3 of the four potential "aces" this rotation is supposed to have pitching like that, right now only Kyle is holding up his end of the bargain.

I'd not be worried if Quintana looked fine and just had some bad luck like his start to the season last year with the White Sox, but his velocity and movement is down across the board on almost every pitch and worse the way he's nibbling right now indicates to me that he knows something is wrong. It's not a good sign.

You know the Cubs have the second best run differential in the league, right?  Not bad for a "might win the wildcard" team.

Atlanta leads the pack in that category and I'm not sure how much I trust run differential over a 40 game sample, but that said I don't think these Cubs are bad. I think their offense should be the best in the NL in the long run. The bullpen is fantastic. I could easily see them winning 90 games with that alone. But the rotation has some worrying trends and peripherals that make me think they may not be the elite unit we were expecting, which probably bodes ill for them over the course of a full season/in the playoffs.

I'm also probably overrating the Cardinals somewhat but their lineup is deep if not packed with stars and they have a ton of starting pitching depth and are getting Alex Reyes, who was the #1 overall prospect in baseball for a reason, in their rotation soon.

Quote from: R-V on May 15, 2018, 08:53:17 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 14, 2018, 02:19:17 PM
Okay it's the middle of May and his velocity is still down several ticks from last year and he's getting consistently rocked with a hard hit rate in the 40% range. I'm starting to think he's hurt.

The good news is, they're only 2 games out in spite of Darvish & Quintana pitching like trash so far.

The bad news is, they're obviously not going anywhere in the postseason if those two don't figure their shit out. Those two and Russell are my only serious concerns about this team.

Yeah I mean this is probably a good enough offense and bullpen to carry them to a wildcard, but Lester's peripherals haven't been as good as his results so far and he's walking a lot of guys and not going deep into games. Chatwood obviously has his own issues. I don't even see them as the favorites in this division if they don't get at least 2-3 of the four potential "aces" this rotation is supposed to have pitching like that, right now only Kyle is holding up his end of the bargain.

I'd not be worried if Quintana looked fine and just had some bad luck like his start to the season last year with the White Sox, but his velocity and movement is down across the board on almost every pitch and worse the way he's nibbling right now indicates to me that he knows something is wrong. It's not a good sign.

To Jose Bautista's corpse. Jesus.

Okay it's the middle of May and his velocity is still down several ticks from last year and he's getting consistently rocked with a hard hit rate in the 40% range. I'm starting to think he's hurt.

Quote from: Saul Goodman on May 14, 2018, 09:42:21 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 14, 2018, 08:15:34 AM

Quote from: Tonker on May 14, 2018, 06:56:23 AM
I know a couple of you are fucking hot for the Dodgers, but I enjoyed the piss out of their getting swept in a four-game series by the Reds.  The fucking Reds!  Ha ha!  Fuck the Dodgers.

To go from "is this the greatest team of all time?" articles last august, to that awful September skid they had, to blowing the WS (never forget Clayton Kershaw had a 4-0 and then a 7-4 lead in Game 5 and blew both), and now this hellish start filled with terrible injuries after is really something. They are basically living the nightmare we've all had of what might have happened if the Cubs had lost Game 7 in Cleveland

It's especially fun if you're tired of Dodgers fans around you constantly talking shit about the 2017 NLCS, always forgetting that (a) the Cubs actually won the World Series after beating the Dodgers in the 2016 NLCS (people forget that), and (b) THE DODGERS JUST BLEW THE WORLD SERIES YOU IDIOTS. Congratulations on beating a clearly spent Cubs team so you could then ... *checks notes* lose the World Series in heartbreaking fashion?

I have had Mets fans try to dunk on me for the 2015 NLCS, which sure seems to ignore everything that has happened after said NLCS.