Desipio Message Board

It's amazing how this dude has gone all of the way from "dude you watch with a clenched butt because you never know when one of those 86 mph floaters is gonna get crushed" to "guy so routinely excellent we don't even bump this thread for an utterly effortless 8 inning outing." He's the best.

So he's got enough plate appearances and cooled off enough from his insane hot streak (before heating back up again) and it looks like he's regressed in the areas I expected him to (walk rate, mostly) but otherwise his sub 20% K rate appears to be here to stay, which means I think him having an OPS in the .850-.950 range is going to be A Thing. A Javy that doesn't swing and miss, even if he's not gonna draw walks, is one helluva ballplayer.

Also the regular season results do to tend to be predictive in terms of the postseason. Although most people act like winning 100 games is some kinda curse because they remember x number of 100 win teams that flopped, a true talent 100 wins the pennant almost half of the time in the WC Era, the odds get worse the lower you go. It's like the mythical President's Cup curse or whatever that is bullshit because 1 seeds in the NHL win more often than other seeds.

The 2016 Cubs for example had about a 25% chance of winning the whole thing, I believe, whereas your average 90 win wildcard team has maybe an 8-12% chance generally. Up to you how much that extra 12% is worth. Theo wagered it was worth Gleyber Torres, anyway.

I know all of this bc you can bet your ass I spent the summer of 2016 calculating just how likely that team was to win it all.

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 12:41:35 PM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 12:36:25 PM

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 12:28:40 PM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:56:35 AM
I do find it funny that the guys who most often respond to the worriers with "bah, this team is gonna win multiple titles during this run, calm the fuck down" seem the most angry at people who appear to have set their expectations at...winning multiple titles. Although to be fair to Huey that boast usually comes more from Fork.

No I expect them to win multiple titles and will be disappointed if they don't.  However I don't agree that winning the regular season easily indicates improved odds of winning it all any more than sneaking in and getting hot indicates the same.  The point is to get in, which they have for 3 years running.  From there, it's a new season.

Even when they did cruise through a regular season,it didn't mean jack shit as far as their postseason was concerned and easily could've turned to dust.  They were looking into the abyss in each  series that year, and but for a couple plays here and there, they might have gone down.  Their ability to bounce off the mat against San Francisco when they were looking at blowing a 2-0 series lead, coming back down 2-1 to LA when they weren't hitting, and down 3-1 to Cleveland (also not hitting) had jack shit to do with the fact that they were 25-6 at some point 5 months earlier.

I don't know why you operate under some misguided premise that coasting through the regular season ensures a championship, but you do and I suggest that's your problem.  Trying to flip the script and point out some a-ha! hypocrisy is pretty fucking weak tea, hoss.  Just own up to being an impulsive idiot with the memory and attention span of a gnat.  Me?  I just plan on following and enjoying this team through their highs and lows and gearing up for a hopefully successful run in October.  It's not hard to do with this team.  Doubting them seems to take more effort than trusting that they'll be there at the end but you be you.

To be fair "just get in" mattered more before the play in game. The added value of not having to burn your ace in a win or go home situation is huge.

Also "you be you" kinda has no meaning when you consistently object to me being me at every juncture. If it doesn't bother you maybe try not responding to me every time

Well I did follow your advice and stopped following you on Twitter.

And you actually make a good point (!) about just getting in in the Coinflip Game Era.  However, at the risk of being struck down for my hubris, I literally find the Cardinals competing for divisional supremacy laughable.  I literally laugh at the notion.  And getting pantsed by those turds this weekend hasn't moved the needle one bit for me.  Let 'em feel good about themselves.  The Cubs have absolute dropped the hammer on this franchise in the months of September and October 3 years running and I look forward to them doing it again.  Being scared this of team is beneath us as Cubs fans and I give 2 shits what the stranding are in May.

And that's a perfectly valid and acceptable response provided you realize the numbers don't consider the Cubs to have that much of an advantage here. Your hubris is also an irrational and emotional response, just the opposite of mine.

We're not so different, you and I.

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 12:28:40 PM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:56:35 AM
I do find it funny that the guys who most often respond to the worriers with "bah, this team is gonna win multiple titles during this run, calm the fuck down" seem the most angry at people who appear to have set their expectations at...winning multiple titles. Although to be fair to Huey that boast usually comes more from Fork.

No I expect them to win multiple titles and will be disappointed if they don't.  However I don't agree that winning the regular season easily indicates improved odds of winning it all any more than sneaking in and getting hot indicates the same.  The point is to get in, which they have for 3 years running.  From there, it's a new season.

Even when they did cruise through a regular season,it didn't mean jack shit as far as their postseason was concerned and easily could've turned to dust.  They were looking into the abyss in each  series that year, and but for a couple plays here and there, they might have gone down.  Their ability to bounce off the mat against San Francisco when they were looking at blowing a 2-0 series lead, coming back down 2-1 to LA when they weren't hitting, and down 3-1 to Cleveland (also not hitting) had jack shit to do with the fact that they were 25-6 at some point 5 months earlier.

I don't know why you operate under some misguided premise that coasting through the regular season ensures a championship, but you do and I suggest that's your problem.  Trying to flip the script and point out some a-ha! hypocrisy is pretty fucking weak tea, hoss.  Just own up to being an impulsive idiot with the memory and attention span of a gnat.  Me?  I just plan on following and enjoying this team through their highs and lows and gearing up for a hopefully successful run in October.  It's not hard to do with this team.  Doubting them seems to take more effort than trusting that they'll be there at the end but you be you.

To be fair "just get in" mattered more before the play in game. The added value of not having to burn your ace in a win or go home situation is huge.

Also "you be you" kinda has no meaning when you consistently object to me being me at every juncture. If it doesn't bother you maybe try not responding to me every time

I do find it funny that the guys who most often respond to the worriers with "bah, this team is gonna win multiple titles during this run, calm the fuck down" seem the most angry at people who appear to have set their expectations at...winning multiple titles. Although to be fair to Huey that boast usually comes more from Fork.

Quote
Heyward's disappointing D. (and of course his continued wet noodle of a bat)
Javy's disappointing D
Russell's troubling offense (recent stretch notwithstanding)
Happ's struggles
Rizzo's bat
Yu's slow start

But hey since you asked I am worried about # 1, 3, 4, and 6. Javy's defense is fine. He made some bad throws in the cold and sometimes he tries to do too much. It'll even out with how often he does shit no one else can do. Rizzo will be fine. He had a stretch between late april/mid may last year where he looked every bit this bad. He's coming around.

Heyward is just a sunk cost and needs to be treated as such, but that's definitely not going to happen if Happ doesn't figure his shit out (and I will hold off on taking a 2 HR game against an AAA team as proof that he has, though he's definitely been better of late) and force him to the bench. I'm beginning to think Russell is just never going to be that guy. He's been bad more often than not offensively, and his power has just flat out vanished. I have no idea what Darvish' deal is but I'd say his track record matters more than his struggles, but who knows if this DL stint might slow him down even further.

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 11:43:00 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:33:04 AM

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 11:31:39 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 11:26:50 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:03:24 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 09:37:23 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 09:18:13 AM

Quote from: Oleg on May 08, 2018, 08:46:58 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 07, 2018, 01:41:54 PM
oh and before I get accused of chicken little bullshit over the Cardinals that's not my panicky notion, both fangraphs and baseball prospectus have the cardinals favored to win the division now. The cubs dicked away their cushion.

Just in case anyone is wondering, none of these things is true.

Ha did it change after last night? As of yesterday morning the Cardinals were favored on both.

Ah I guess it was just BP that was that down on them yesterday: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/the-cubs-playoff-odds-after-an-ugly-series-sweep-have-turned-sour-as-in-not-the-clear-favorites/

So I guess there's no point in playing the remaining 130 games then.

Never said there wasn't, just that the cubs should try playing well in those remaining 130 games, as opposed to puttering around .500 and assuming the division will come back to them like it did last year.  I don't think these Cardinals are a great team by any stretch, probably a 90 win team at best, but they have a higher floor than these Cubs because that organization's insistence on depth over talent at most spot means they're fairly consistent. The Cubs have a much, much higher ceiling but we've also been staring at their floor most of the year so far.

So to be clear...the Cardinals are currently firing on all cylinders, and the Cubs still can't get the engine to turn over.

While this has been happening, the Cardinals lead the Cubs by an insurmountable 2.5 games.

The point you're missing is that the Cubs have pissed away their cushion which would have allowed them to win the division easily which, though rather uncommon is, nevertheless the expectation of a suddenly-entitled fanbase  that seems put off by  having to endure the highs and lows of a....baseball season (and no coping mechanism to deal with the vicissitudes of a 6 months season where games are played every day).  Fucking selfish cunts these people are, not even considering the inconvenience they're foisting on their fans.  And fuck YOU for being cool with it, sheeple.

I mean if you think given the core of talent they have to work with and their resources that the Cubs shouldn't be the clear and overwhelming favorite in this division I would say that you do have too low of expectations for them, yes. The Cubs are a 95+ win true talent team puttering along at an 87 win pace, the Cardinals are an 88-90 win team playing like one.

You're using 5 weeks of play to project 6 months.  I really can't help your inability to take in an entire season. I can't.  I'm not even suggesting you enjoy it all--though I've personally  enjoyed pretty much every moment since Kris Bryant won the walkoff game against Colorado in July 2015 since, you know, I waited over 40 years to watch an exceptional baseball team (which is what they are in spite of your sad dissatisfaction).  Warts and all.  Fan all you want but just know you're losing your shit  after 5 weeks of play over a team that has come within 1 step of the World Series 3 times over the course of the last 150+ weeks.  WHAT. THE.  FUCK. DID. YOU. EXPECT. YOU. ENTITLED.  ASSHOLE.

I mean *I'm* not using 5 weeks to project 6 months. Those projections are data driven, and based on the fact that x number of teams that have played like this for this length of time tend to do x. The Cubs will probably play better! They also might fuck up enough in the early going that they really hurt their overall record by the time they do play up to their ability. The 2016 Astros got off to a slow start, then played like a 90+ win team for 5/6 months. But that first month sank them and cost them a playoff spot anyway. These things do matter. What I expect is that I was told to shut up and enjoy 7 years of title contention. In order to contend for the title they should try winning the division. In order to try winning the division they should play better than their divisional opponents. In order to play better than their divisional opponents they should try winning more than like, 50% of their games.

If you'd like to know more, please subscribe

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 11:37:07 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:28:29 AM

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 11:22:34 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:03:24 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 09:37:23 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 09:18:13 AM

Quote from: Oleg on May 08, 2018, 08:46:58 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 07, 2018, 01:41:54 PM
oh and before I get accused of chicken little bullshit over the Cardinals that's not my panicky notion, both fangraphs and baseball prospectus have the cardinals favored to win the division now. The cubs dicked away their cushion.

Just in case anyone is wondering, none of these things is true.

Ha did it change after last night? As of yesterday morning the Cardinals were favored on both.

Ah I guess it was just BP that was that down on them yesterday: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/the-cubs-playoff-odds-after-an-ugly-series-sweep-have-turned-sour-as-in-not-the-clear-favorites/

So I guess there's no point in playing the remaining 130 games then.

Never said there wasn't, just that the cubs should try playing well in those remaining 130 games, as opposed to puttering around .500 and assuming the division will come back to them like it did last year.  I don't think these Cardinals are a great team by any stretch, probably a 90 win team at best, but they have a higher floor than these Cubs because that organization's insistence on depth over talent at most spot means they're fairly consistent. The Cubs have a much, much higher ceiling but we've also been staring at their floor most of the year so far.

Good advice.  Why doesn't anybody else recognize that the Cubs aren't trying to play well?  Christ why won't somebody listen to this blithering genius savant voice from the cornfields?  All along, conventional wisdom has suggested teams are better off "puttering around .500" and that's clearly the Cubs' blueprint, but you make such a cogent argument about trying to play well.  Here's hoping they start to fucking listen to such common sense as dispensed here.

Hey if the advice is "just shut the fuck up and watch the games" and never complain about anything can I strongly suggest it apply to everyone?

here let me help you:

Suggested things to complain/worry about:
Heyward's disappointing D. (and of course his continued wet noodle of a bat)
Javy's disappointing D
Russell's troubling offense (recent stretch notwithstanding)
Happ's struggles
Rizzo's bat
Yu's slow start

Things not to complain about:
Being behind 2 1/2 games to any team--let alone the Slapdick Cardinals--on May Fucking 7th.  Especially since it seems you're just voicing your having been inconvenienced by them not neatly wrapping up the division by the All-Star Break.

Seriously, you can rant all you want but this panicky "ZOMG the STANDINGS" in May is some embarrassing Chip Caray level of alarmism.  Have some fucking dignity, will ya?

What kind of weird ass logic is this? All of those things you say I can worry about ARE WHAT ARE CAUSING THE ISSUES WITH THE STANDINGS. My point is that if THOSE THINGS CONTINUE they can't just expect that the division will fall back to them whenever they get them figured out. Saying I can't worry about one but I should worry about the other when one is the cause of the other is...kind of ass backwards.

I'm not worried about the standings in May, I am worried that the team is under-achieving yet again, and while I'm with everyone on the whole "they'll figure it out eventually" train, my point is they probably have less time to dick around than they did last year, when the dicking around lasted till July. I would suggest they stop dicking around before June this year.

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 11:31:39 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 11:26:50 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:03:24 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 09:37:23 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 09:18:13 AM

Quote from: Oleg on May 08, 2018, 08:46:58 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 07, 2018, 01:41:54 PM
oh and before I get accused of chicken little bullshit over the Cardinals that's not my panicky notion, both fangraphs and baseball prospectus have the cardinals favored to win the division now. The cubs dicked away their cushion.

Just in case anyone is wondering, none of these things is true.

Ha did it change after last night? As of yesterday morning the Cardinals were favored on both.

Ah I guess it was just BP that was that down on them yesterday: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/the-cubs-playoff-odds-after-an-ugly-series-sweep-have-turned-sour-as-in-not-the-clear-favorites/

So I guess there's no point in playing the remaining 130 games then.

Never said there wasn't, just that the cubs should try playing well in those remaining 130 games, as opposed to puttering around .500 and assuming the division will come back to them like it did last year.  I don't think these Cardinals are a great team by any stretch, probably a 90 win team at best, but they have a higher floor than these Cubs because that organization's insistence on depth over talent at most spot means they're fairly consistent. The Cubs have a much, much higher ceiling but we've also been staring at their floor most of the year so far.

So to be clear...the Cardinals are currently firing on all cylinders, and the Cubs still can't get the engine to turn over.

While this has been happening, the Cardinals lead the Cubs by an insurmountable 2.5 games.

The point you're missing is that the Cubs have pissed away their cushion which would have allowed them to win the division easily which, though rather uncommon is, nevertheless the expectation of a suddenly-entitled fanbase  that seems put off by  having to endure the highs and lows of a....baseball season (and no coping mechanism to deal with the vicissitudes of a 6 months season where games are played every day).  Fucking selfish cunts these people are, not even considering the inconvenience they're foisting on their fans.  And fuck YOU for being cool with it, sheeple.

I mean if you think given the core of talent they have to work with and their resources that the Cubs shouldn't be the clear and overwhelming favorite in this division I would say that you do have too low of expectations for them, yes. The Cubs are a 95+ win true talent team puttering along at an 87 win pace, the Cardinals are an 88-90 win team playing like one.

Plus, I believe it was you yelling at me when I wanted the Cubs to answer the Brewers moves for Yelich and Cain by signing Darvish about how the Cubs would be making moves with the aim of winning titles, not winning the division, as the division isn't an issue and their sights should be set higher. So I'm gonna say if our goal here is winning titles then playing well enough that they clinch this division easily should be part of that process.

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on May 08, 2018, 11:22:34 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:03:24 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 09:37:23 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 09:18:13 AM

Quote from: Oleg on May 08, 2018, 08:46:58 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 07, 2018, 01:41:54 PM
oh and before I get accused of chicken little bullshit over the Cardinals that's not my panicky notion, both fangraphs and baseball prospectus have the cardinals favored to win the division now. The cubs dicked away their cushion.

Just in case anyone is wondering, none of these things is true.

Ha did it change after last night? As of yesterday morning the Cardinals were favored on both.

Ah I guess it was just BP that was that down on them yesterday: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/the-cubs-playoff-odds-after-an-ugly-series-sweep-have-turned-sour-as-in-not-the-clear-favorites/

So I guess there's no point in playing the remaining 130 games then.

Never said there wasn't, just that the cubs should try playing well in those remaining 130 games, as opposed to puttering around .500 and assuming the division will come back to them like it did last year.  I don't think these Cardinals are a great team by any stretch, probably a 90 win team at best, but they have a higher floor than these Cubs because that organization's insistence on depth over talent at most spot means they're fairly consistent. The Cubs have a much, much higher ceiling but we've also been staring at their floor most of the year so far.

Good advice.  Why doesn't anybody else recognize that the Cubs aren't trying to play well?  Christ why won't somebody listen to this blithering genius savant voice from the cornfields?  All along, conventional wisdom has suggested teams are better off "puttering around .500" and that's clearly the Cubs' blueprint, but you make such a cogent argument about trying to play well.  Here's hoping they start to fucking listen to such common sense as dispensed here.

Hey if the advice is "just shut the fuck up and watch the games" and never complain about anything can I strongly suggest it apply to everyone?

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 11:26:50 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 11:03:24 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 09:37:23 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 09:18:13 AM

Quote from: Oleg on May 08, 2018, 08:46:58 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 07, 2018, 01:41:54 PM
oh and before I get accused of chicken little bullshit over the Cardinals that's not my panicky notion, both fangraphs and baseball prospectus have the cardinals favored to win the division now. The cubs dicked away their cushion.

Just in case anyone is wondering, none of these things is true.

Ha did it change after last night? As of yesterday morning the Cardinals were favored on both.

Ah I guess it was just BP that was that down on them yesterday: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/the-cubs-playoff-odds-after-an-ugly-series-sweep-have-turned-sour-as-in-not-the-clear-favorites/

So I guess there's no point in playing the remaining 130 games then.

Never said there wasn't, just that the cubs should try playing well in those remaining 130 games, as opposed to puttering around .500 and assuming the division will come back to them like it did last year.  I don't think these Cardinals are a great team by any stretch, probably a 90 win team at best, but they have a higher floor than these Cubs because that organization's insistence on depth over talent at most spot means they're fairly consistent. The Cubs have a much, much higher ceiling but we've also been staring at their floor most of the year so far.

So to be clear...the Cardinals are currently firing on all cylinders, and the Cubs still can't get the engine to turn over.

While this has been happening, the Cardinals lead the Cubs by an insurmountable 2.5 games.

Didn't say the Cardinals are firing on all cylinders. I think Cubs fans are consistently underrating them as a threat based on the last two years, but I think this is the best group they've run out there in a few years. If they straighten out their bullpen there's not too  many holes on that roster, and the projections mostly agree. BP has both the Cubs and Cardinals at 87 wins, FG has the Cubs projected for 90 and STL for 88. The math doesn't have them that far apart.

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on May 08, 2018, 09:37:23 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 08, 2018, 09:18:13 AM

Quote from: Oleg on May 08, 2018, 08:46:58 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 07, 2018, 01:41:54 PM
oh and before I get accused of chicken little bullshit over the Cardinals that's not my panicky notion, both fangraphs and baseball prospectus have the cardinals favored to win the division now. The cubs dicked away their cushion.

Just in case anyone is wondering, none of these things is true.

Ha did it change after last night? As of yesterday morning the Cardinals were favored on both.

Ah I guess it was just BP that was that down on them yesterday: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/the-cubs-playoff-odds-after-an-ugly-series-sweep-have-turned-sour-as-in-not-the-clear-favorites/

So I guess there's no point in playing the remaining 130 games then.

Never said there wasn't, just that the cubs should try playing well in those remaining 130 games, as opposed to puttering around .500 and assuming the division will come back to them like it did last year.  I don't think these Cardinals are a great team by any stretch, probably a 90 win team at best, but they have a higher floor than these Cubs because that organization's insistence on depth over talent at most spot means they're fairly consistent. The Cubs have a much, much higher ceiling but we've also been staring at their floor most of the year so far.

Quote from: Oleg on May 08, 2018, 08:46:58 AM

Quote from: SKO on May 07, 2018, 01:41:54 PM
oh and before I get accused of chicken little bullshit over the Cardinals that's not my panicky notion, both fangraphs and baseball prospectus have the cardinals favored to win the division now. The cubs dicked away their cushion.

Just in case anyone is wondering, none of these things is true.

Ha did it change after last night? As of yesterday morning the Cardinals were favored on both.

Ah I guess it was just BP that was that down on them yesterday: http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/05/07/the-cubs-playoff-odds-after-an-ugly-series-sweep-have-turned-sour-as-in-not-the-clear-favorites/

Quote from: R-V on May 07, 2018, 03:09:49 PM
I think Heyward's sudden inability to catch the ball might be the single thing I'm most mad about so far this season. The offense will come around, there's no way the pitching staff can continue to walk this many guys (can they?), but the overall shitty defense so far is infuriating.

I won't deny my reaction to him is over the top and insane, but when that asshole has gotten to take 1200+ plate appearances while hitting like Junior Lake I've had to deal with "BUT HIS DEFENSE!" over and over, and to see him fuck up repeatedly at the only thing he's even employed for at this point is beyond infuriating.