Fuck Zorp You Stathead Turds

[Yeti]

I was just browsing, with my hand down my shorts, through Cubs stats on Fangraphs, when I noticed that BMIaez has a BABIP of just .292.  Considering that he currently leads the team in WAR ahead of give guys who all have a BABIP of over .350, that's pretty remarkable.

However, I then notice that not only is Javy's BABIP .292, but his BA is also .292.  I tried to think about what exactly that means, but it made my brain hurt, so... paging statnherds?

BA is .299 and BABIP is .308. Internet is slow in Australia

[Yeti]

I was just browsing, with my hand down my shorts, through Cubs stats on Fangraphs, when I noticed that BMIaez has a BABIP of just .292.  Considering that he currently leads the team in WAR ahead of give guys who all have a BABIP of over .350, that's pretty remarkable.

However, I then notice that not only is Javy's BABIP .292, but his BA is also .292.  I tried to think about what exactly that means, but it made my brain hurt, so... paging statnherds?

BA is .299 and BABIP is .308. Internet is slow in Australia

Speaking of stats (cue Yeti), he's got 24 RBI which is leading the NL. That's kinda fun. 24 before April is over decent.

[Chuck to Chuck]

I was just browsing, with my hand down my shorts, through Cubs stats on Fangraphs, when I noticed that BMIaez has a BABIP of just .292.  Considering that he currently leads the team in WAR ahead of give guys who all have a BABIP of over .350, that's pretty remarkable.

However, I then notice that not only is Javy's BABIP .292, but his BA is also .292.  I tried to think about what exactly that means, but it made my brain hurt, so... paging statnherds?

BA is .299 and BABIP is .308. Internet is slow in Australia

Speaking of stats (cue Yeti), he's got 24 RBI which is leading the NL. That's kinda fun. 24 before April is over decent.

With what, 4 missed games due to weather?

[SKO]

I was just browsing, with my hand down my shorts, through Cubs stats on Fangraphs, when I noticed that BMIaez has a BABIP of just .292.  Considering that he currently leads the team in WAR ahead of give guys who all have a BABIP of over .350, that's pretty remarkable.

However, I then notice that not only is Javy's BABIP .292, but his BA is also .292.  I tried to think about what exactly that means, but it made my brain hurt, so... paging statnherds?

BA is .299 and BABIP is .308. Internet is slow in Australia

Speaking of stats (cue Yeti), he's got 24 RBI which is leading the NL. That's kinda fun. 24 before April is over decent.

With what, 4 missed games due to weather?

He is currently on pace to best Hack Wilson's 1930 all-time MLB record of 191 RBI with 195 (he's also on pace to finish with one more homer than Hack had, 57 to 56).

The only logical conclusion is this is 100% what is going to happen

[Chuck to Chuck]

I was just browsing, with my hand down my shorts, through Cubs stats on Fangraphs, when I noticed that BMIaez has a BABIP of just .292.  Considering that he currently leads the team in WAR ahead of give guys who all have a BABIP of over .350, that's pretty remarkable.

However, I then notice that not only is Javy's BABIP .292, but his BA is also .292.  I tried to think about what exactly that means, but it made my brain hurt, so... paging statnherds?

BA is .299 and BABIP is .308. Internet is slow in Australia

Speaking of stats (cue Yeti), he's got 24 RBI which is leading the NL. That's kinda fun. 24 before April is over decent.

With what, 4 missed games due to weather?

He is currently on pace to best Hack Wilson's 1930 all-time MLB record of 191 RBI with 195 (he's also on pace to finish with one more homer than Hack had, 57 to 56).

The only logical conclusion is this is 100% what is going to happen

Look at Hack's age 26-32 seasons.

Year             PA    AB    R    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB    BB    SO    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    OPS+     
1926-1932       4257   3635 729  1160   222   49   213   892   36      514   546   .319   .406   .583   .989   153   
Average         608   519   104   166   32   7   30   127   5      73   78                  303         
per 162 games   699   597   120   191   37   9   35   147   6      85   90                  348      

[Bort]

I was just browsing, with my hand down my shorts, through Cubs stats on Fangraphs, when I noticed that BMIaez has a BABIP of just .292.  Considering that he currently leads the team in WAR ahead of give guys who all have a BABIP of over .350, that's pretty remarkable.

However, I then notice that not only is Javy's BABIP .292, but his BA is also .292.  I tried to think about what exactly that means, but it made my brain hurt, so... paging statnherds?

BA is .299 and BABIP is .308. Internet is slow in Australia

Speaking of stats (cue Yeti), he's got 24 RBI which is leading the NL. That's kinda fun. 24 before April is over decent.

With what, 4 missed games due to weather?

He is currently on pace to best Hack Wilson's 1930 all-time MLB record of 191 RBI with 195 (he's also on pace to finish with one more homer than Hack had, 57 to 56).

The only logical conclusion is this is 100% what is going to happen

Look at Hack's age 26-32 seasons.

Year             PA    AB    R    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB    BB    SO    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    OPS+     
1926-1932       4257   3635 729  1160   222   49   213   892   36      514   546   .319   .406   .583   .989   153   
Average         608   519   104   166   32   7   30   127   5      73   78                  303         
per 162 games   699   597   120   191   37   9   35   147   6      85   90                  348      

Thanks for the tab delimited text file. It's going to help me with my mail merge.

[Quality Start Machine]

I was just browsing, with my hand down my shorts, through Cubs stats on Fangraphs, when I noticed that BMIaez has a BABIP of just .292.  Considering that he currently leads the team in WAR ahead of give guys who all have a BABIP of over .350, that's pretty remarkable.

However, I then notice that not only is Javy's BABIP .292, but his BA is also .292.  I tried to think about what exactly that means, but it made my brain hurt, so... paging statnherds?

BA is .299 and BABIP is .308. Internet is slow in Australia

Speaking of stats (cue Yeti), he's got 24 RBI which is leading the NL. That's kinda fun. 24 before April is over decent.

With what, 4 missed games due to weather?

He is currently on pace to best Hack Wilson's 1930 all-time MLB record of 191 RBI with 195 (he's also on pace to finish with one more homer than Hack had, 57 to 56).

The only logical conclusion is this is 100% what is going to happen

Look at Hack's age 26-32 seasons.

Year             PA    AB    R    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB    BB    SO    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    OPS+     
1926-1932       4257   3635 729  1160   222   49   213   892   36      514   546   .319   .406   .583   .989   153   
Average         608   519   104   166   32   7   30   127   5      73   78                  303         
per 162 games   699   597   120   191   37   9   35   147   6      85   90                  348      

Great presentation of numbers. Good thing you're not in banking or anything.

[Chuck to Chuck]

I was just browsing, with my hand down my shorts, through Cubs stats on Fangraphs, when I noticed that BMIaez has a BABIP of just .292.  Considering that he currently leads the team in WAR ahead of give guys who all have a BABIP of over .350, that's pretty remarkable.

However, I then notice that not only is Javy's BABIP .292, but his BA is also .292.  I tried to think about what exactly that means, but it made my brain hurt, so... paging statnherds?

BA is .299 and BABIP is .308. Internet is slow in Australia

Speaking of stats (cue Yeti), he's got 24 RBI which is leading the NL. That's kinda fun. 24 before April is over decent.

With what, 4 missed games due to weather?

He is currently on pace to best Hack Wilson's 1930 all-time MLB record of 191 RBI with 195 (he's also on pace to finish with one more homer than Hack had, 57 to 56).

The only logical conclusion is this is 100% what is going to happen

Look at Hack's age 26-32 seasons.

Year             PA    AB    R    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB    BB    SO    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    OPS+     
1926-1932       4257   3635 729  1160   222   49   213   892   36      514   546   .319   .406   .583   .989   153   
Average         608   519   104   166   32   7   30   127   5      73   78                  303         
per 162 games   699   597   120   191   37   9   35   147   6      85   90                  348      

Great presentation of numbers. Good thing you're not in banking or anything.

It'd be so much easier if this Geocities-level webzone would allow you to upload images.

[Tonker]

Okay, here's a thing: those Stathead turds at Fangraphs have Washington as favourites to win the NL East:



Not just favourites, in fact, but relatively firm favourites: they're almost half as likely again to win the division as the Braves are.  Okay, so the strength of the remaining schedule for the Nats is advantageous, but only by a couple of wins, and as it stands they're seven games behind the Braves with a run differential of +24 against Atlanta's +81.  I could understand predicting it being a closer-run thing than it is now.  I can't understand how you make Washington firm favourites here - Atlanta has been as good as anybody in the NL* throughout the first half, but somehow they're going to play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way whilst the Nats, a .500 club for 84 games, go on an eighty-game win bender.

The fuck?

*Except the Cubs, natch.

[Yeti]

Okay, here's a thing: those Stathead turds at Fangraphs have Washington as favourites to win the NL East:



Not just favourites, in fact, but relatively firm favourites: they're almost half as likely again to win the division as the Braves are.  Okay, so the strength of the remaining schedule for the Nats is advantageous, but only by a couple of wins, and as it stands they're seven games behind the Braves with a run differential of +24 against Atlanta's +81.  I could understand predicting it being a closer-run thing than it is now.  I can't understand how you make Washington firm favourites here - Atlanta has been as good as anybody in the NL* throughout the first half, but somehow they're going to play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way whilst the Nats, a .500 club for 84 games, go on an eighty-game win bender.

The fuck?

*Except the Cubs, natch.

Without diving into it too deep, I'm going to say it's based on individual player projections the rest of the way through. Sure, the Nationals are playing like an 81 win team, but player projections dictate that they're not an 81 win club. I'm sure the Cubs were favored to win the division last year when they were .500 around this time

[SKO]

Okay, here's a thing: those Stathead turds at Fangraphs have Washington as favourites to win the NL East:



Not just favourites, in fact, but relatively firm favourites: they're almost half as likely again to win the division as the Braves are.  Okay, so the strength of the remaining schedule for the Nats is advantageous, but only by a couple of wins, and as it stands they're seven games behind the Braves with a run differential of +24 against Atlanta's +81.  I could understand predicting it being a closer-run thing than it is now.  I can't understand how you make Washington firm favourites here - Atlanta has been as good as anybody in the NL* throughout the first half, but somehow they're going to play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way whilst the Nats, a .500 club for 84 games, go on an eighty-game win bender.

The fuck?

*Except the Cubs, natch.

Without diving into it too deep, I'm going to say it's based on individual player projections the rest of the way through. Sure, the Nationals are playing like an 81 win team, but player projections dictate that they're not an 81 win club. I'm sure the Cubs were favored to win the division last year when they were .500 around this time

From what I can tell the Fangraphs projections mostly just take whatever you were projected to do before the season, winning % wise, and project that you do that the rest of the season and then add that to the wins you already banked. So if before the year they expected the Nats to win 95 games (.586) and the Braves to win 75 (.462) even if they haven't played like that to this point, going forward the system still thinks at some point they'll play like the team they were supposed to be and so will the Braves, which in the Braves case would be a massive collapse. Sometimes this is correct, like last year as Yeti says they did, in fact, confidently predict the Cubs would win the division and the Brewers would crash even when the Cubs were sucking early, but other times it's really just the data refusing to accept certain breakouts, etc.

Problem is there's not really any reason to believe the Braves aren't real, for the most part. They're the 2015 Cubs, a collection of young studly guys like Albies and Acuna, their young pitchers are finally playing well after a few years of growing pains, they haven't significantly outperformed their Pythagorean record or whatever. The system may have trouble accepting that they arrived faster than predicted but they're here to stay. I think FG is wrong here and the Nats are in real trouble.

[SKO]

DPD but also the Fangraphs projections keep expecting the Brewers to eventually play like the 78 win team the system thought they were at the beginning of the year and while I do think that's more likely to happen than Atlanta falling to earth bc the Brewers are getting stupidly lucky in one run games it would be nice if they'd actually get around to sucking. Stupid bastards.

[Canadouche]

DPD but also the Fangraphs projections keep expecting the Brewers to eventually play like the 78 win team the system thought they were at the beginning of the year and while I do think that's more likely to happen than Atlanta falling to earth bc the Brewers are getting stupidly lucky in one run games it would be nice if they'd actually get around to sucking. Stupid bastards.

You need to become more of a sadist. The longer the Brewers stay competitive this year, the harder it's going to be on their fans when the inevitable collapse occurs.

[Wheezer]

Okay, here's a thing: those Stathead turds at Fangraphs have Washington as favourites to win the NL East:



Not just favourites, in fact, but relatively firm favourites: they're almost half as likely again to win the division as the Braves are.  Okay, so the strength of the remaining schedule for the Nats is advantageous, but only by a couple of wins, and as it stands they're seven games behind the Braves with a run differential of +24 against Atlanta's +81.  I could understand predicting it being a closer-run thing than it is now.  I can't understand how you make Washington firm favourites here - Atlanta has been as good as anybody in the NL* throughout the first half, but somehow they're going to play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way whilst the Nats, a .500 club for 84 games, go on an eighty-game win bender.

The fuck?

*Except the Cubs, natch.

Without diving into it too deep, I'm going to say it's based on individual player projections the rest of the way through. Sure, the Nationals are playing like an 81 win team, but player projections dictate that they're not an 81 win club. I'm sure the Cubs were favored to win the division last year when they were .500 around this time

From what I can tell the Fangraphs projections mostly just take whatever you were projected to do before the season, winning % wise, and project that you do that the rest of the season and then add that to the wins you already banked. So if before the year they expected the Nats to win 95 games (.586) and the Braves to win 75 (.462) even if they haven't played like that to this point, going forward the system still thinks at some point they'll play like the team they were supposed to be and so will the Braves, which in the Braves case would be a massive collapse. Sometimes this is correct, like last year as Yeti says they did, in fact, confidently predict the Cubs would win the division and the Brewers would crash even when the Cubs were sucking early, but other times it's really just the data refusing to accept certain breakouts, etc.

Problem is there's not really any reason to believe the Braves aren't real, for the most part. They're the 2015 Cubs, a collection of young studly guys like Albies and Acuna, their young pitchers are finally playing well after a few years of growing pains, they haven't significantly outperformed their Pythagorean record or whatever. The system may have trouble accepting that they arrived faster than predicted but they're here to stay. I think FG is wrong here and the Nats are in real trouble.

Fangraphs? Show me some fucking confidence intervals, statmonkey.