2015: The Back To The Future Season

[Chuck to Chuck]

Though it puts me in the double-edged position of agreeing with Chuck while inviting scorn from Andy, I think Starlin Castro will, and should be--for the right deal, which I can only trust it would be--dealt at some point.

I'd still be terrified to trade him for most pitchers because, well, pitchers.

When La Stella gets back and/or Baez returns, time to get Hamels*?

*(I know he got lit up a second time recently, this wouldn't happen until June at the earliest though...can see how it plays out)

I think this is true of just about any non-superstar that you watch on a consistent basis for 5+ years, and I think this was mentioned yesterday, but I just don't get excited when Castro comes to the plate. There isn't the curiosity of watching a Bryant or Russell to understand their approach and watch them develop, or the anticipation of seeing Soler hit a laser beam, or the certainty that Rizzo will have a better judgment of the strike zone than the ump. He's just a guy who when he's at the top of his game hits a bunch of singles with a bit of pop. And defensively he has improved a lot but I know there isn't the potential for a holy shit moment like there is when Russell is involved.

Again, a lot of this is just being excited/distracted by the shiny new thing, but I don't think I'll have too many strong feels if they deal him.

If it's for Hamels or Zimmerman (with an extension), I'm fine with it.  I don't want to trade him just to trade him.  I want positive ROA/ROI.  But when he came up in the 5th last night, Eldest Murton and I rolled our eyes. Then Castro rolled to short.  Thank Jesus for Kris Bryant and a weak throw to try to get the double play.

Love to see him in the 9th hole and get Russell some more ABs.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Though it puts me in the double-edged position of agreeing with Chuck while inviting scorn from Andy, I think Starlin Castro will, and should be--for the right deal, which I can only trust it would be--dealt at some point.

I'd still be terrified to trade him for most pitchers because, well, pitchers.

When La Stella gets back and/or Baez returns, time to get Hamels*?

*(I know he got lit up a second time recently, this wouldn't happen until June at the earliest though...can see how it plays out)

I think this is true of just about any non-superstar that you watch on a consistent basis for 5+ years, and I think this was mentioned yesterday, but I just don't get excited when Castro comes to the plate. There isn't the curiosity of watching a Bryant or Russell to understand their approach and watch them develop, or the anticipation of seeing Soler hit a laser beam, or the certainty that Rizzo will have a better judgment of the strike zone than the ump. He's just a guy who when he's at the top of his game hits a bunch of singles with a bit of pop. And defensively he has improved a lot but I know there isn't the potential for a holy shit moment like there is when Russell is involved.

Again, a lot of this is just being excited/distracted by the shiny new thing, but I don't think I'll have too many strong feels if they deal him.

To me, he's beginning to stand out from everyone else in the lineup with his approach at the plate.  From Fowler on down, these guys work the count--even Russell's already learning to lay off the outside junk on occasion. Now one of Castro's strengths is simply his ability to make contact on all kinds of pitches so when he chases out of the zone he's not as likely to miss as much as others would, but he's also no more likely to get a hit than he is to roll a grounder somewhere it seems.  This approach still yields a lot of hits over time, but I'm beginning to wonder if it's something that Epstein and Co. don't really value as much as other front offices (Ruben Amaro *cough*).  The latter part is speculation but the idea has sort of crept up on me while I watch this team cycle through the lineup.  He just doesn't seem to fit IMO.

I think Epstein and Hoyer don't exactly need everyone in the lineup to be a patient OBP machine. There's a definite value to Starlin Castro in a lineup that features a lot of low-contact guys. That said, if Javy Baez actually figures shit out and can translate that power to the big leagues on any kind of consistent basis it'd be hard to say that's not a more valuable player than Starlin Castro.

I guess what I'm saying is if Starlin goes it'll be because Javy shows enough to push him out the door, not simply because Theo and Jed just don't like his style of play.

Thank you for explaining to me that Theo and Jed are not idiots and assuming my one angle was my entire point.

Clearly Castro has value and they clearly recognize it.  I'm not suggesting they run their operation out of spite and rid themselves of Castro because they don't like him.  I'm suggesting they'd simply be more likely to move him than anyone else of value because of the reasons above.  They recognize his value, I assume, and would hope to leverage it in a package for a quality pitcher because right now they barely have 3/5 of a rotation.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

And Javy pushing Castro out the door wouldn't be the only reason.  If the front office really likes Castro, then somebody would move to 3rd (Baez?  Russell?  Castro?) and Bryant goes to left--isn't that the general, common arrangement that we've articulated since March?

Anyway, I see that as a less likely scenario as time goes on, that's all.  If Baez comes up in June and is ready, I think a deal would be more realistic than moving people around and standing pat with their rotation.

[Powdered Toast Man]

And Javy pushing Castro out the door wouldn't be the only reason.  If the front office really likes Castro, then somebody would move to 3rd (Baez?  Russell?  Castro?) and Bryant goes to left--isn't that the general, common arrangement that we've articulated since March?

Anyway, I see that as a less likely scenario as time goes on, that's all.  If Baez comes up in June and is ready, I think a deal would be more realistic than moving people around and standing pat with their rotation.

I think the Cubs probably should keep Castro. He's not a very good #5 hitter. I don't know where his best spot is in the lineup, but 5th doesn't appear to be it. Maybe 7th or 8th once Javy Baez is back and settled in (which could be a while from now).

In the meantime, Starlin Castro is a good baseball player. We aren't excited about him because we've seen him for five years and he's seemingly been here forever. Let's not forget he's finally surrounded by good baseball players and better baseball managers and coaches than he's ever been around in his life this season. Mayhaps he's adjusting just like everyone else.

The weak ground balls are a thing though...I feel like they've been a thing for a while with Castro.

[R-V]

And Javy pushing Castro out the door wouldn't be the only reason.  If the front office really likes Castro, then somebody would move to 3rd (Baez?  Russell?  Castro?) and Bryant goes to left--isn't that the general, common arrangement that we've articulated since March?

Anyway, I see that as a less likely scenario as time goes on, that's all.  If Baez comes up in June and is ready, I think a deal would be more realistic than moving people around and standing pat with their rotation.

I think the Cubs probably should keep Castro. He's not a very good #5 hitter. I don't know where his best spot is in the lineup, but 5th doesn't appear to be it. Maybe 7th or 8th once Javy Baez is back and settled in (which could be a while from now).

In the meantime, Starlin Castro is a good baseball player. We aren't excited about him because we've seen him for five years and he's seemingly been here forever. Let's not forget he's finally surrounded by good baseball players and better baseball managers and coaches than he's ever been around in his life this season. Mayhaps he's adjusting just like everyone else.

The weak ground balls are a thing though...I feel like they've been a thing for a while with Castro.

The #5 hitter point is a good one. If/when this lineup is good enough to have Castro as the 7th hitter or hell, the 9th hitter, the issues won't be as magnified. Right now it's just not fun to have OBP machines like Rizzo and Bryant followed shortly by a guy who is an easy double play target.

[Chuck to Chuck]

And Javy pushing Castro out the door wouldn't be the only reason.  If the front office really likes Castro, then somebody would move to 3rd (Baez?  Russell?  Castro?) and Bryant goes to left--isn't that the general, common arrangement that we've articulated since March?

Anyway, I see that as a less likely scenario as time goes on, that's all.  If Baez comes up in June and is ready, I think a deal would be more realistic than moving people around and standing pat with their rotation.

I think the Cubs probably should keep Castro. He's not a very good #5 hitter. I don't know where his best spot is in the lineup, but 5th doesn't appear to be it. Maybe 7th or 8th once Javy Baez is back and settled in (which could be a while from now).

In the meantime, Starlin Castro is a good baseball player. We aren't excited about him because we've seen him for five years and he's seemingly been here forever. Let's not forget he's finally surrounded by good baseball players and better baseball managers and coaches than he's ever been around in his life this season. Mayhaps he's adjusting just like everyone else.

The weak ground balls are a thing though...I feel like they've been a thing for a while with Castro.

His GB/FB ratio is 2.00 right now. That's insanely high. For the rest of his career, it's been 0.97. Hopefully, he reverts to his historical averages.

[SKO]

Though it puts me in the double-edged position of agreeing with Chuck while inviting scorn from Andy, I think Starlin Castro will, and should be--for the right deal, which I can only trust it would be--dealt at some point.

I'd still be terrified to trade him for most pitchers because, well, pitchers.

When La Stella gets back and/or Baez returns, time to get Hamels*?

*(I know he got lit up a second time recently, this wouldn't happen until June at the earliest though...can see how it plays out)

I think this is true of just about any non-superstar that you watch on a consistent basis for 5+ years, and I think this was mentioned yesterday, but I just don't get excited when Castro comes to the plate. There isn't the curiosity of watching a Bryant or Russell to understand their approach and watch them develop, or the anticipation of seeing Soler hit a laser beam, or the certainty that Rizzo will have a better judgment of the strike zone than the ump. He's just a guy who when he's at the top of his game hits a bunch of singles with a bit of pop. And defensively he has improved a lot but I know there isn't the potential for a holy shit moment like there is when Russell is involved.

Again, a lot of this is just being excited/distracted by the shiny new thing, but I don't think I'll have too many strong feels if they deal him.

To me, he's beginning to stand out from everyone else in the lineup with his approach at the plate.  From Fowler on down, these guys work the count--even Russell's already learning to lay off the outside junk on occasion. Now one of Castro's strengths is simply his ability to make contact on all kinds of pitches so when he chases out of the zone he's not as likely to miss as much as others would, but he's also no more likely to get a hit than he is to roll a grounder somewhere it seems.  This approach still yields a lot of hits over time, but I'm beginning to wonder if it's something that Epstein and Co. don't really value as much as other front offices (Ruben Amaro *cough*).  The latter part is speculation but the idea has sort of crept up on me while I watch this team cycle through the lineup.  He just doesn't seem to fit IMO.

I think Epstein and Hoyer don't exactly need everyone in the lineup to be a patient OBP machine. There's a definite value to Starlin Castro in a lineup that features a lot of low-contact guys. That said, if Javy Baez actually figures shit out and can translate that power to the big leagues on any kind of consistent basis it'd be hard to say that's not a more valuable player than Starlin Castro.

I guess what I'm saying is if Starlin goes it'll be because Javy shows enough to push him out the door, not simply because Theo and Jed just don't like his style of play.

Thank you for explaining to me that Theo and Jed are not idiots and assuming my one angle was my entire point.

Clearly Castro has value and they clearly recognize it.  I'm not suggesting they run their operation out of spite and rid themselves of Castro because they don't like him.  I'm suggesting they'd simply be more likely to move him than anyone else of value because of the reasons above.  They recognize his value, I assume, and would hope to leverage it in a package for a quality pitcher because right now they barely have 3/5 of a rotation.

Woah, easy there, pal. I don't think anything I said implied that spite was behind it. I was just saying if one of the arguments you had was that he doesn't fit due to his contrasting style of play, I actually think that might HELP him, because he offers something the others don't. Never meant to hurt your feelings or anything.

*hands over whisky soaked optoat as peace offering*

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Woah, easy there, pal. I don't think anything I said implied that spite was behind it. I was just saying if one of the arguments you had was that he doesn't fit due to his contrasting style of play, I actually think that might HELP him, because he offers something the others don't. Never meant to hurt your feelings or anything.

*hands over whisky soaked optoat as peace offering*

*wrings optoat over mouth, drinks precious whiskey*

I know I came off like suggesting that Theo and Co. want a 9-man OBP robot army and they're obviously more nuanced than that.  Relatedly, I can see how Castro's contrasting approach would fit in with said bots.  

I just think that if they reach a point this season where they're looking to seriously upgrade their rotation, and find that it can't be done without giving up 1 quality regular, that Castro'd be the guy to go.  

But I'm not discounting the fact that he's possibly  being misused in the middle of the order--and that makes him stand out more--in which case the decision rests with Maddon to maximize his value to the ole' ballclub.

[Powdered Toast Man]

Woah, easy there, pal. I don't think anything I said implied that spite was behind it. I was just saying if one of the arguments you had was that he doesn't fit due to his contrasting style of play, I actually think that might HELP him, because he offers something the others don't. Never meant to hurt your feelings or anything.

*hands over whisky soaked optoat as peace offering*

*wrings optoat over mouth, drinks precious whiskey*

I know I came off like suggesting that Theo and Co. want a 9-man OBP robot army and they're obviously more nuanced than that.  Relatedly, I can see how Castro's contrasting approach would fit in with said bots.  

I just think that if they reach a point this season where they're looking to seriously upgrade their rotation, and find that it can't be done without giving up 1 quality regular, that Castro'd be the guy to go.  

But I'm not discounting the fact that he's possibly  being misused in the middle of the order--and that makes him stand out more--in which case the decision rests with Maddon to maximize his value to the ole' ballclub.

The thing is, I don't think they'd do that at all this season. There are a lot of really, really good free agent pitchers that the Cubs can throw lots of money that won't cost them any good baseball players...just money. Which they have tons of.  They also have the attraction of a really good, young base to pitch behind for many years to come and a manager that appears to have everyone in love with him.

I don't think giving up Castro for one of those big name starting pitchers makes sense this year when they can get one in the winter.

[Chuck to Chuck]

Woah, easy there, pal. I don't think anything I said implied that spite was behind it. I was just saying if one of the arguments you had was that he doesn't fit due to his contrasting style of play, I actually think that might HELP him, because he offers something the others don't. Never meant to hurt your feelings or anything.

*hands over whisky soaked optoat as peace offering*

*wrings optoat over mouth, drinks precious whiskey*

I know I came off like suggesting that Theo and Co. want a 9-man OBP robot army and they're obviously more nuanced than that.  Relatedly, I can see how Castro's contrasting approach would fit in with said bots.  

I just think that if they reach a point this season where they're looking to seriously upgrade their rotation, and find that it can't be done without giving up 1 quality regular, that Castro'd be the guy to go.  

But I'm not discounting the fact that he's possibly  being misused in the middle of the order--and that makes him stand out more--in which case the decision rests with Maddon to maximize his value to the ole' ballclub.

His value is boosted by his long term relatively cheap contract.  As to where to bat him in the order, I can't see Russell staying at the bottom very long and, were Schwarber here, he won't bat behind Castro either. He's at best a 7th hitter on a team with Russell and Schwarber.

Eventually.

I'd guess Maddon is just taking his time before moving Russell up.  In this Maddon'd lineup right now, I'd love to see:

Fowler
Soler
Rizzo
Bryant
Montero
Russell
LF / Castro
P
Castro / LF

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Woah, easy there, pal. I don't think anything I said implied that spite was behind it. I was just saying if one of the arguments you had was that he doesn't fit due to his contrasting style of play, I actually think that might HELP him, because he offers something the others don't. Never meant to hurt your feelings or anything.

*hands over whisky soaked optoat as peace offering*

*wrings optoat over mouth, drinks precious whiskey*

I know I came off like suggesting that Theo and Co. want a 9-man OBP robot army and they're obviously more nuanced than that.  Relatedly, I can see how Castro's contrasting approach would fit in with said bots.  

I just think that if they reach a point this season where they're looking to seriously upgrade their rotation, and find that it can't be done without giving up 1 quality regular, that Castro'd be the guy to go.  

But I'm not discounting the fact that he's possibly  being misused in the middle of the order--and that makes him stand out more--in which case the decision rests with Maddon to maximize his value to the ole' ballclub.

The thing is, I don't think they'd do that at all this season. There are a lot of really, really good free agent pitchers that the Cubs can throw lots of money that won't cost them any good baseball players...just money. Which they have tons of.  They also have the attraction of a really good, young base to pitch behind for many years to come and a manager that appears to have everyone in love with him.

I don't think giving up Castro for one of those big name starting pitchers makes sense this year when they can get one in the winter.

As has been pointed out, when going after Free Agents you're not guaranteed you will get what you wish since you're, you know, competing with other teams. Yes, the Cubs got Lester and made a bid at Shields, but that's still not a guarantee.  If you have the young depth the Cubs have, however, you can control the personnel a little better.

[Saul Goodman]

Though it puts me in the double-edged position of agreeing with Chuck while inviting scorn from Andy, I think Starlin Castro will, and should be--for the right deal, which I can only trust it would be--dealt at some point.

I'd still be terrified to trade him for most pitchers because, well, pitchers.

When La Stella gets back and/or Baez returns, time to get Hamels*?

*(I know he got lit up a second time recently, this wouldn't happen until June at the earliest though...can see how it plays out)

I think this is true of just about any non-superstar that you watch on a consistent basis for 5+ years, and I think this was mentioned yesterday, but I just don't get excited when Castro comes to the plate. There isn't the curiosity of watching a Bryant or Russell to understand their approach and watch them develop, or the anticipation of seeing Soler hit a laser beam, or the certainty that Rizzo will have a better judgment of the strike zone than the ump. He's just a guy who when he's at the top of his game hits a bunch of singles with a bit of pop. And defensively he has improved a lot but I know there isn't the potential for a holy shit moment like there is when Russell is involved.

Again, a lot of this is just being excited/distracted by the shiny new thing, but I don't think I'll have too many strong feels if they deal him.

If it's for Hamels or Zimmerman (with an extension), I'm fine with it.  I don't want to trade him just to trade him.  I want positive ROA/ROI.  But when he came up in the 5th last night, Eldest Murton and I rolled our eyes. Then Castro rolled to short.  Thank Jesus for Kris Bryant and a weak throw to try to get the double play.

Love to see him in the 9th hole and get Russell some more ABs.

Tough break for Starlin, having your eyes roll like that.  I guess he's as good as gone.

[Saul Goodman]

Woah, easy there, pal. I don't think anything I said implied that spite was behind it. I was just saying if one of the arguments you had was that he doesn't fit due to his contrasting style of play, I actually think that might HELP him, because he offers something the others don't. Never meant to hurt your feelings or anything.

*hands over whisky soaked optoat as peace offering*

*wrings optoat over mouth, drinks precious whiskey*

I know I came off like suggesting that Theo and Co. want a 9-man OBP robot army and they're obviously more nuanced than that.  Relatedly, I can see how Castro's contrasting approach would fit in with said bots.  

I just think that if they reach a point this season where they're looking to seriously upgrade their rotation, and find that it can't be done without giving up 1 quality regular, that Castro'd be the guy to go.  

But I'm not discounting the fact that he's possibly  being misused in the middle of the order--and that makes him stand out more--in which case the decision rests with Maddon to maximize his value to the ole' ballclub.

The thing is, I don't think they'd do that at all this season. There are a lot of really, really good free agent pitchers that the Cubs can throw lots of money that won't cost them any good baseball players...just money. Which they have tons of.  They also have the attraction of a really good, young base to pitch behind for many years to come and a manager that appears to have everyone in love with him.

I don't think giving up Castro for one of those big name starting pitchers makes sense this year when they can get one in the winter.

As has been pointed out, when going after Free Agents you're not guaranteed you will get what you wish since you're, you know, competing with other teams. Yes, the Cubs got Lester and made a bid at Shields, but that's still not a guarantee.  If you have the young depth the Cubs have, however, you can control the personnel a little better.

DPD they're obviously getting Price and Zimmerman for the rotation and Snork for mopup duty, just because, so don't worry.

[Oleg]

1. I want 9 OBP bots.  If 4 or 5 of them could also be SLG bots, that would be swell.
2. I think that, if the The Cubs would like to win this year, they will need to trade for a starter.  Unless Jacob Turner somehow magically be pretty damn good.  I still wouldn't want to count on that, though.  I'd like to worry about 2016 in November.
3. Castro's contract becomes very player friendly pretty quickly.  It's these early, low-salary years that make it good.  He becomes a $10MM player in 2017.
4. I'm glad Fork is done comparing Hendricks to Maddux.  That was a thing, right?

[SKO]

1. I want 9 OBP bots.  If 4 or 5 of them could also be SLG bots, that would be swell.
2. I think that, if the The Cubs would like to win this year, they will need to trade for a starter.  Unless Jacob Turner somehow magically be pretty damn good.  I still wouldn't want to count on that, though.  I'd like to worry about 2016 in November.
3. Castro's contract becomes very player friendly pretty quickly.  It's these early, low-salary years that make it good.  He becomes a $10MM player in 2017.
4. I'm glad Fork is done comparing Hendricks to Maddux.  That was a thing, right?

I believe Fork's quote was "he'll just be a quality start machine for years" about Hendricks. So far he's had one in 5 starts.