The great and all powerful ESPN deemed today Cubs day in their ridiculously named “Hot Stove Heaters” series. They got ertstwhile Tribune “national” baseball correspondent Phil Rogers to write it. As we all know, Phil is a “global-thinker” and can’t be troubled with the concerns of any one baseball team. Whatever. So we’re going to do it for him.

These ESPN things are usually pretty good and they come with three vital components.

1) You get the Hot Stove Heater itself. I guarantee you Flannel Boy came up with this name. It’s so lame it fairly reeks “Neyer.”
ESPN Hot Stove Heater: Cubs

2) You get John Sickels’ analysis of that team’s minor league prospects.
Cubs Minor League Report

3) And, you get a long-winded Baseball Prospectus report on something that will make your eyes glaze over and cause drool to roll down your chin.
Something about new managers and three games and blah, blah, blah.

So let’s do our own Cubs Preseason Report in the style of their Hot Stove Heater, shall we?

2002 in review
What went right?
Nothing.

No, really. Nothing went right for the 2002 Cubs. They wore those stupid blue jerseys on opening day in Cincinnati. Moises Alou missed the opener with a sore calf that he injured “while standing” and they started Chris Stynes and Delino DeShields. We might as well have started gearing up for Big Brother 3 as our summer’s big entertainment right there.

The home opener wasn’t much better. Ron Santo threw out the first pitch and had better stuff than starter Matt Clement did that day. Pirates rookie Josh Fogg looked like Walter Johnson in mowing down the Cubs, who didn’t score more than two runs in a single game until August.

OK, maybe it just seemed that way.

But this is supposed to be the part of the report where we say nice things about the season.

Sammy hit lots of homers.
Kerry Wood’s arm didn’t fall off.
Mark Prior became the team’s second best righthanded hitter.
Antonio Alfonseca (El Pulpo) had twelve fingers.

Oh, and Don Baylor got fired. Groove just never quite found the groove in Chicago and spent a few weeks in June daring the Cubs to fire him. They finally did, and then we got Bruce Kimm and things just never got better.

What went wrong?
How much bandwidth do we have?

Corey Patterson spent the last four months doing a Shawon Dunston imitation at home plate. He walked TWICE in nearly 300 at bats in the second half. Just to clarify: that’s not good.

Moises Alou didn’t get a hit until August.

Fred McGriff slept through April and May and when he woke up he realized he just didn’t care enough to field his position anymore. It should be noted that the day the Cubs acquired Fred in 2001 they were in first place. Their dive after he arrived was immediate and we may never recover fully from it.

Todd Hundley was allowed to stand at home plate and flail away, way too much. His one saving grace was the day in June against the Sox when he went nuts and hit two homers during our live game cast. It’s almost like it didn’t happen.

Joe Girardi retired on opening day but never left.

Jon Lieber’s arm finally fell off.

The bullpen, which was so good in 2001 became immersed in flames in early April and may still be smoldering. Jeff Fassero died and nobody had the heart to tell him. El Pulpo started putting something extra on his pitches—asphalt from Waveland Avenue. The Farns broke his foot while jacking around in batting practice one cool, April day. He was punting a baseball like it was a football, and he broke his foot. He would never be the same. In fact, he so frustrated pitching coach Larry Rothschild that Larry said in a Cubs Convention “seminar” earlier this month, “Kyle needs to decide if baseball’s important to him. If it’s not, he’ll have to go away.”

By “away” I think he means a mental institution. Or the Mets. Like there’s a difference.

Delino DeShields played second base while Bobby Hill was in Des Moines playing in a cornfield.

McGriff would not leave the lineup so he could get some phony baloney record for most years with 20 homers and 100 RBI. If I were Hee Seop Choi I’d have walked up to him in early September and whispered, “North Korea has the bomb. And we know where you live.”

Darryl Kile got hold of some really good weed and died in a Chicago hotel room. (Wait, is this is the what went wrong section?)

Bruce Kimm was thrown to the ground during an argument in San Francisco. Only, he was thrown to the ground by his own player–Alex Gonzalez.

Rene Lachemann managed the Cubs for a day while Kimm rode his tractor in from Iowa and spent a good 20 minutes before the game ripping the players for being lazy and not caring.

Most of the players responded by taking a nap.

The season did not end soon enough.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1) Not devising a plan to have Todd Hundley deported, and bringing back Fred McGriff. On paper, the 2002 Cubs should not have been that bad. But while people want to blame Sammy Sosa and his happy-go-Salsa clubhouse, the real problems lied in the horrible “give a rat’s ass” attitudes of supposed leaders like Hundley and McGriff. Both players poisoned everyone around them and helped create and maintain an atmosphere in which losing was not only “OK” it was expected.

2) Moving Corey Patterson around in the order. Early in the season, Patterson batted second behind DeShields. He was bunting, he was chopping down on the ball and was actually getting on base. For the first six weeks, Patterson was the only productive hitter on the team. Eventually Bobby Hill came up and incredibly, Baylor took a natural leadoff hitter in Hill and hit him either second or eighth and made Patterson lead off. Patterson began to struggle and basically forgot everything he’d been doing well to that point. When Kimm took over he installed Mark Bellhorn in the leadoff spot and had Patterson hit sixth. Corey’s decline accelerated and he left 2002 a worse player than he entered it.

3) Putting Mark Prior in DL jail and not letting him out. When Prior pulled a hamstring on August 31 his season was over. The Cubs, fearful that 116 major league innings added to his minor league workload were too many for a first year professional pitcher. For once, they made a wise and prudent decision. With the Cubs so far out of first place that they needed a telescope to find the Cardinals and Astros, it made no sense for Prior to keep taking the hill. It may have cost him the NL Rookie of the Year award. But even Hundley and McGriff wouldn’t give you a rat’s ass for that award. Maybe Jerome Walton can have Mark over and he can see what one looks like. Unless Jerome has sold his on eBay already.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1) Can the pitching carry this anemic offense? With a rotation of hard-throwing studs like Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement and Carlos Zambrano surrounding head-case lefty Shawn Estes, the Cubs have the best 1-5 staff in the National League. That assumes that Estes’ control problems are over. Last year he pulled off an incredible feat when he threw at and missed Roger Clemens’ ass.

Wood will be the staff ace this year, a role he clearly relishes. Prior will be the best pitcher, though. While Clement will be hard pressed to pitch as well as he did in 2002, his record should actually improve. If indeed we did see Zambrano’s light turn on in the final weeks of 2002, like I think we did, the Cubs are set 1-5.

In the bullpen, the Cubs have subscribed to the more is more theory. They have acquired lefties Mike Remlinger (1.95 ERA in 2002) and Mark Guthrie. They also have brought in a motley crew of righthanders including former Cubs favorite Rod “Shooter” Beck, and Dave Veres–the former Expo and Cardinal with the odd hat fetish.

2) Who’s going to score runs? It’s not a long jump to the assumption that Alou will fare much better in 2003, and coupled with Sosa and his automatic .300, 50, 120, the Cubs should get decent production from the middle of the order.

But what if nobody gets on base? Bobby Hill’s first half was a disaster, but in more than 100 at bats in the second half he hit .314 with a .358 on base average (not great, but for the Cubs–stellar) and a .451 slugging percentage. Hill’s second half was in line with what is expected of him for an entire season in 2003.

Corey Patterson will hit either second or seventh (let’s hope second). The Cubs are bringing in former Dodger and Giant leadoff hitter Brett Butler (we assume–if it’s the alcoholic, redneck, female comedian it’d be just too Cub) to work with Patterson and Hill. Given Dusty Baker’s penchant for veterans, expect the Cubs to sign Butler and have him in the opening day lineup.

3) What impact will Dusty Baker have? In his last five years in San Francisco, the Giants were eliminated from playoff contention for a grand total of eleven days. That kind of run in Chicago (especially if a pennant is thrown in the mix) would make Baker a legend.

Baker insists he likes young players but that the Giants never had any. He insists he has a plan for handing the unique issues associated with a large number of day baseball games. His son will be expected to distract opposing baserunners by racing onto the field and dancing in front of home plate a couple of times a week.

One thing Baker brings to the job that no recent Cubs manager has is an actual personality. He is excitable and brings a passion to the park every day. The Cubs, in recent years, have gone with comatose dugout denizens like Jim Riggleman and Don Baylor, or con men like Jim Lefebvre. Not since the days of Don Zimmer have the Cubs had a manager who didn’t look like he needed a cot to lie on during the games. Unlike Zimmer, however, Dusty is not a complete moron.

Can expect to play better
How can Moises Alou, Antonio Alfonseca or Kyle Farnsworth possibly be worse?

Can expect to play worse
In the preseason last year I told everyone to keep an eye on Mark Bellhorn. And he turned in a great year. He hit 27 homers and showed power from both sides of the plate. But I’ve got to tell you, it has Rick Wilkins 1993 written all over it.

Joe Borowski had a 2.73 ERA in 95 innings, and there’s no way in hell he could ever do that again.

Projected lineup
You’ve already seen the lineup I’d use, but let’s look at the Cubs most likely “everyday” lineup.
2B Bobby Hill
CF Corey Patterson
RF Sammy Sosa
LF Moises Alou
1B Hee Seop Choi
3B Mark Bellhorn
SS Alex Gonzalez
C Damian Miller

Rotation:
Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Shawn Estes
Matt Clement
Carlos Zambrano

Bullpen
Kyle Farnsworth
Juan Cruz
Mark Guthrie
Mike Remlinger
Joe Borowski
Dave Veres
Closer: Antonio Alfonseca

Bench: Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek, Troy O’Leary, Paul Bako, Ramon Martinez

Losses
Fred McGriff (free agent Dodgers) Good riddance.
Jon Lieber (free agent Yankees) Because every starting pitcher goes to the Yankees.
Jesus Sanchez (released, Astros) He’ll help the Cubs more in Houston.
Chris Stynes (released, Rockies) Would have been their starting third baseman until Jose Hernandez signed. Yikes.
Joe Girardi (free agent Cardinals) Can’t play. At all.
Jason Bere (free agent Indians) Needs to switch leagues every other year.
Pat Mahomes (free agent) His agent’s phone is probably ringing off the hook
Todd Hundley (traded Dodgers) There IS a God!
Chad Hermansen (traded Dodgers) Acquired from the Pirates for Darren Lewis. Lewis immediately retired. The Pirates got the better end of that deal.

Additions
Mike Remlinger (free agent) First real lefty the Cubs have had in the bullpen since Paul Assenmacher.
Troy O’Leary (free agent) Lefty rotting corpse to go nicely with Alou’s righty rotting corpse.
Shawn Estes (free agent) Good stuff, fragile confidence. He thinks Dusty will save his career.
Ramon Martinez (free agent) Utility player in the Tom Veryzer mold.
Dave Veres (free agent) Gets outs, even if he annoys with his stupid hat trick.
Lenny Harris (free agent) Little chance to make the team. Lenny can’t play any position anymore.
Mike Sirotka (free agent) Lefty has a minor league deal and is behind in his rehab.
Mark Guthrie (free agent) Former Cub returned because he wanted to play for Dusty.
Tom Goodwin (free agent) Can’t hit. Can run.
Charles Gipson (free agent) See: Goodwin, Tom.
Damian Miller (trade) All-Star last year only because Bob Brenley picked the team. Best Cubs catcher since…Scott Servais. Sigh.
Paul Bako (trade) Swings left-handed. Never hits anything.
Eric Karros (trade) Will only help bench if he’s on it. Will spell Choi at first. For now.
Mark Grudzielanek (trade) Only included in the trade because he made the salaries match up. The Cubs would love to trade him in spring training. I’d love it if they would.

A closer look
Only a true Cubs optimist can look at 2003 and see anything but a mad dash to .500. A strong, but young rotation will have its moments (and take its lumps) and the bullpen should be significantly improved. The Cubs won’t struggle as mightily to score runs as some fear, but they won’t be the 1996 Indians, either. Improved defense will make everybody happier, as will a bench with actual talent on it.

The Cubs did not go out and sign a big-name free agent in the offseason. They let Jim Thome go to Philadelphia though he clearly preferred Chicago and they refused to give Ivan Rodriguez a three year contract. Ivan signed a one-year deal with his hometown Marlins and hopes to use a good season as a stepping stone to one last monster deal.

The most that Cubs fans can look forward to is a potentially fun season inside the vines at Wrigley. Bobby Hill should prove to be one of those Lenny Dykstra love him if he’s on your team, hate him if he’s on the other team kind of players. Let’s just hope Bobby never owns a car wash and hires 16 year old girls to run it. Corey Patterson should make strides in his second full season in the majors, and Hee Seop Choi will prove that his AAA leading 95 walks at Iowa last year were no fluke.

Sammy Sosa should thrive in an environment of excitement, rather than one of “when’s hunting season start?”

Cubs fans will have the joy of watching Kerry Wood and Mark Prior humiliating National League hitters two of every five days.

But there are still holes, and big ones.

If Patterson doesn’t pan out, there is no other center fielder. (Tom Goodwin does not count.)
If Mark Bellhorn shows that 2002 was a mirage, we’ll get the comical sight of Mark Grudzielanek at third base.
If Wood gets hurt, the Cubs will move Juan Cruz back to the rotation. Cruz proved in a 51 inning relief stint (50 K’s) that his arm is best suited for the bullpen right now.
If El Pulpo cannot close and the Cubs end up using Mike Remlinger, they are in effect wasting one of the best lefty relievers in baseball.

Forecasting a season at any point is foolhardy, but in January? Oh who cares?

Unless a significant spring training trade is made, the Cubs are looking at a best case scenario of 83-79 in 2003. Worst case? Well, they’ve lost 94 or more games in four of the last six years. They could do it again.

They are the Cubs, after all.