It’s time to play the old game of, “If I told you…” The Cubs, in their present state (disarray) are a prime example of that.

If I told you, back in the spring, that with 20 games to go, the Cubs would be within one game of first place, have all of their players healthy and play zero games against teams with a winning record, you’d have taken it, right?

Schmuck.

Three weeks from yesterday the season will end, and supposedly, one of the NL Central teams will go to the playoffs. There’s still a chance, probably a decent chance, that the team will be the Cubs. There’s probably a better chance it’ll be the Brewers, and there’s very little chance it’ll be the Cardinals.

So why the apoplexy? Because though the standings and the schedule say the Cubs are in good shape, it doesn’t feel like it, does it? What it feels like is that the Brewers gave the Cubs lots of chances to put away the Central, and the Cubs never did it.

The Cubs have surprised us all season. They surprised us with how shitty they were for two months, then they surprised us by playing over their heads for two more. Maybe they’ll do something very un-Cublike down the stretch and turn it back around again.

You hold your breath.

I’ll check in on you from time to time. You’ll most likely die.

The one thing the Cubs have going for them down the stretch is the cranky old guy in the dugout. He’s a far better manager than the Elmer Fudd lookalike who sits in the Brewers dugout. Switch rosters with the Brewers and see how many wins Lou would have gotten out of those guys. They’d have already had their champagne bath.

But there’s only so much the manager can do. He can start by not letting Steve Trachsel or Kerry Wood touch a baseball the rest of the season.

I don’t have to explain how much I like Kerry Wood. I’m glad he came back and all that stuff, I just wish he could throw a strike or that his breaking pitches didn’t sound like a cannon when a batter puts the bat on them.

You could blame a big part of yesterday’s, typically mind-numbing loss on Jock Jones completely misplaying what was very nearly an inside the park grand slam by Freddy Sanchez. Go ahead, I won’t stop you. I hate Jock.

But he was probably only about 50 percent responsible for that. It would have been nice if the pitcher, our old buddy Trachsel (a guy we never missed the first time he left and sure won’t this time, either) hadn’t coughed up a 2-0 lead in about three minutes, hadn’t failed to retire the great Matt Morris with a chance to end the inning and hadn’t allowed the 137 pound Sanchez to absolutely smoke that ball to center, where the always hapless Jock was standing, flat footed, confused and no doubt with a fresh steamer pinched out in his road grays.

The Cubs, who were 2.5 games up on Milwaukee just a few days ago, are a game back now. Today the mouthbreathers from down I-55 are in town for a day and it’s deja vu. Remember the Monday game last month when the Cubs were going for a sweep and had Ted Lilly against the great Joel Piniero? It was soggy, gloomy and wet. Lilly got torched and the Cubs lost. Guh.

It’s been a very long, strange season. One that when it’s over, regardless of what the Cubs do in the last 20 games won’t give you the urge to re-live any of it.  Well, except for Michael Barrett getting his ass beaten, that I could watch on a non-stop loop.

The real reason the Cubs seem to be dead in the water is that the starting pitching, which for the bulk of the season was consistent, is so inconsistent now.  Lou’s thinking about giving Kevin Hart a start now, and Sean Marshall is probably back in line for starts now that his sabbatical is over.  But you don’t know what you’re going to get out of Carlos Zambrano, or Rich Hill.  Just when you think Hill has it sorted out he shits the bed like he did Friday in Pissburgh.  Zambrano pitched well on Saturday, but he imploded in the seventh and threw a tantrum when Lou was on his way out to bring in Marmol.  Great.  Right now, the two most consistent pitchers are Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis.  Huh?  Marquis?  See why things look so glum?

The good news, is that both I and my gut are wrong lots of times.  We both thought the Bears would win the Super Bowl last year.  Both of us were convinced that Britney wouldn’t show up for the Video Music Awards 20 pounds overweight and chock-full-o-Quaaludes.  So the Cubs have that going for them.

If absolutely nothing else.