When people ask me about my favorite holiday, the answer is easy. I like
Christmas and Groundhog Day as much as the next guy, but the day that
pitchers and catchers report to Cubs’ Spring Training is one of the finest
moments a man can know.

It is very clear that the Cubs absolutely MUST get off to a great start.
The April schedule is ridiculously diluted. In fact, before the series with
the Giants to close the month, the lowly Expos are the only April opponent
returning a .500 record. On the other hand, Houston and St. Louis will be
beating each other up during the first couple weeks of the season. If the
Cubs can distance themselves a bit while those two are having it out, they
might still have a chance. If they start off slowly again, we can forget
about it. They say you don’t win it all in April. This year the Cubs might
have to.

Furthermore, a quick start can do wonders for increasing players’ confidence
in a new manager, decreasing relief pitchers’ naptimes, and overall
maintaining good clubhouse morale.

Before I delve into minor details of the squad, here are a handful of
not-so-educated guesses for the 2003 Cubs.

-Erik Karros will end up with more games started than Hee Seop Choi.

-Mark Bellhorn will hit no more than 16 home runs.

-Alex Gonzalez will play consistently at last, and hit at least .270/20/80.

-The Cubs’ pitching staff will easily lead the majors in strikeouts, but the
bats will “fail” to repeat as the most struck out team.

-Mike Remlinger will post an ERA of over 3.00 after last year’s 1.99.

-Dusty Baker will push to acquire at least one more current or former Giant
before season’s end.

-Kerry Wood will make his first All Star appearance, and will be joined by
Sammy Sosa and (gasp) Moises Alou.

-The Cubs will show great improvement, but will fall well short of the
two-team race between Houston and St. Louis.

I’ve learned not to set my expectations high when it comes to the Cubs. So
with that in mind, I think the 2003 squad will be very entertaining and
enjoyable to watch. It seems inevitable that youngster Corey Patterson
would play at least noticeably better, if not drastically. And with
Zambrano, Hill, Choi and perhaps Cruz still just breaking into the bigs, the
old proverbial “upside” is very believable. Oh and by the way, seeing Mark
Prior for 30+ starts doesn’t sound too bad either.

Recently something stood out to me concerning the pitching staff. The
national media is widely regarding the Cubs’ starting pitching as their
primary strength. Yet, with a rotation including names like Kerry Wood,
Mark Prior, Matt Clement and Carlos Zambrano, isn’t it ironic that the
pitcher who has put together the most impressive single season to date (in
terms of numbers) is Shawn Estes?

Granted, Kerry Wood was nearly dominant last year, and he could’ve and
should’ve ended up with 17 or 18 wins. Nonetheless, his best season to date
is still his rookie year when he went 13-6/3.40/ with 233 Ks. Clement had a
career year last year at 12-11/3.60/ and 215 Ks. After that, Prior
(6-6/3.32/147) and Zambrano (4-8/3.66/93) are just hoping to spend their
first full seasons in a big league starting rotation.

So that leaves Estes with the most impressive-looking resume to date.
Albeit short-lived, he did compile some front-of-the-rotation type numbers
for the Giants. How about 19-5/3.18/181 in 1997, or perhaps 15-6/4.26/136
two years later? OK, so maybe the rest of his stats aren’t necessarily
worth mentioning here–especially in recent days. Still, at just 29 years
of age, he completes a rather decent collection of twenty-somethings that
just might be the primary strength of the 2003 Cubs.

Then again, three or four of them could just as easily fall on their
respective faces this year. (Fear not, however, for Steve Smyth, Andy
Benes, and Ben Ford are waiting with baited breath for their chance to come
to the rescue.)

But for our purposes here, let’s pretend that the projected five will indeed
pitch at or near their capabilities. Wouldn’t that translate into a pennant
chase on the North side? Perhaps not.

After investigating several weaknesses as well as improvements made, could
it be that we’ll find the entire season will hinge upon the performances of
two returning players? Let us see.

Considering how perfectly horrible the Cubs’ offense was last year
(particularly in the first couple months), it’s hard to believe that the two
most blatant weaknesses of the 2002 team were so clearly the bullpen and
defense.

It is my belief that the defense has to be better this year–if only by
accident. I will never forget the image of Fred McGriff ignoring the pop-up
to first that would eventually lead to the temporary demise of Bellhorn and
Sosa. H.S. Choi showed good defense at first during his stint, while Bobby
Hill is a fielding machine at second. I think Gonzalez is ready to cut down
on his career-high 18 errors from a year ago. Third is still a big guessing
game. But anytime you can remove Delino DeShields and Chris Stynes from
your depth chart, it has to be considered an improvement.

That leaves us with the most glaring trouble spot. I kind of like
management’s idea of going to Arizona with 10 or 11 guys who could
conceivably make the bullpen. In theory it seems impossible that the relief
corps could be anything but better. However, consider that the combined age
of the four veteran reliever signings comes to 143 years (with Rod Beck
being the youngest at 34).

That said, the pen still looks a lot better on paper. I just hope it
doesn’t fall apart again. If the old guys can’t cut it, Cubs fans had
better hope that the young arms of Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, and Francis
Beltran can get it together in a big hurry.

And speaking of The Farns, I am relieved the Cubs didn’t give up on him just
yet. I think having an orderly clubhouse and a manager who’s actually in
charge of the team just might elevate The Farns back to normality (or even
outright dominance). If he returns to 2001 form (and the Cubs actually
win), he’ll have my vote for team MVP.

By the way, who knew that Jon Lieber would end up with the Yankees?! Hard
to figure, I tell ya. I am of the belief that his absence will do wonders
for the psyche of Kerry Wood. Everybody knew Wood was a number one starter
in the number two spot. Now it’s Wood’s team–in more ways than one. His
emerging vocal leadership was impressive to see last year.

So all in all, the off-season losses were very minimal. Despite losing
almost 50 home runs from McGriff and Hundley, I think Angel Echevarria will
be the only one we really miss. He was the lone 2002 Cub to hit over .300.
Maybe Lenny “I’m the best pinch hitter ever” Harris will take up the slack.
The bench looks at least a little deeper, if not more talented.

And that brings us to the two players that hold the Cubs’ season in their
hands. Cubs fans can put up with a lot. However, as Todd Hundley proved,
we won’t stand for individual players consistently underachieving. That’s
why everything boils down to Moises Alou and Antonio Alfonseca. Maybe a
better manager is worth a couple five wins here or there. Perhaps the
improved defense will steal you a couple games. And solid middle relief is
priceless (especially after 40+ ties or leads blown by last year’s pen).
But if Alou doesn’t hit like he can, the Cubs are left with basically one
proven offensive player. And if Alfonseca stinks up the ninth again, it
won’t matter how good your middle relief was.

In the end, you still have to be better than the teams in your division. At
this point, the Cubs are still short a few established weapons. Depending
on the development of the youth, that may not be the case come August and
September. But for now, thinking playoffs would be AWFULLY optimistic.

Subtract Don Baylor, Bruce Kimm, Fred McGriff and Todd Hundley from any
clubhouse, and the chemistry has to improve. Like our friend Andy Dolan
says, if anyone can win with the Cubs, it would be Dusty Baker.
Unfortunately I believe this has to be at least a two or three year project.

Expect no better than 84-78.