See the clever use of headline and photo there? Yeah, I know, tremendous. Takes a series as big as this one to break out the hack in me. If you haven’t heard, tonight starts a three game series (curiously, all night games) between the first and second place teams in the NL Central, though it’s entirely possible that should the Brewers lose tonight it will no longer be a series between the first and second place teams in the division.
At this point in the season, the Cubs have a lot more in common with the meth addicts from the south than they do the cheesy bunch from the north. Milwaukee had this division all locked up in mid-June with an 8.5 game lead. Since then, they’ve gone completely into the tank, and the Cubs and Cardinals have traded hot streaks with streaks of utter mediocrity and still caught up. The Cubs, because they have the better team, have done better than catch up. They moved on into first.
All three of the contenders in the Central have holes (I’m not counting the Reds because, oh, come on, why is anybody?). Milwaukee can hit but they can’t pitch, at all, anymore. The Cardinals hit some days, they pitch others, they’re really the pretender in this bunch. The Cubs have the best pitching and their offense has been awful, which makes no sense because it ought to be better than the pitching.
So there you have it. The winner of the Central will be the one who sucks the least at the worst possible time.
Kind of like 2003, when it was the Cubs (as the Astros choked it away and the Cardinals wallowed) and in the 2004 wild card race when it was the Astros (as the Cubs choked terribly and the Giants ran out of games).
You know it’s a big series when Bruce Miles breaks out the position by position comparisons of the two teams.
So the Cubs cede almost every offensive position to the Brewers and Bruce still thinks they’re going to sweep? Sure. Why not?
Alfonso Soriano returns tonight and there’s a lot of hand wringing about how he shouldn’t be leading off. It doesn’t bother me a bit. Soriano gets on base at a .346 clip when he leads off, compared to .240 when he doesn’t. Ryan Theriot has a .358 on base average when he leads off but it’s .378 when he bats second.
So you could do this: 1. Soriano (.346 oba) 2. Theriot (.378 oba)
Or, you could do this: 1. Theriot (.358 oba) 2. Soriano (.240 oba)
As for Soriano not stealing bases now because he’s got a bum leg and you shouldn’t have him lead off, Theriot didn’t run that much when he led off anyway. He’s stolen five bases in 140 at bats leading off, compared to 11 in 194 when he bats second. The reason is likely that leading off in front of Jock Jones doesn’t all you many pitches to run on. Batting second in front of Derrek Lee, does. So the Cubs will probably run more with Theriot hitting second than they would with him leading off in front of Soriano.
I’m pretty sure that Lou thinks of stuff like this when he sets his lineup. He claims not to, but his former bench coach, John McLaren who is now managing the Mariners claims that Lou makes most decisions based on stats, but that Lou doesn’t admit to it. Fine by me. That’s better than Dusty only basing his decisions on one stat, the age of the players.
Thirty-three games are all that separate the Cubs and their second division title in five seasons. If they win 20 of them, they’ll be 86-76. That’s not that great.
But it’s probably enough to win the division by more than a couple of games. To get to 86 wins, the Cardinals would have to go 23-12 the rest of the way without a single day off. The Brewers have to go 21-11 and the Reds have to go (now you see why they’re really not in the race) 26-6.
The Reds have already won six in a row, so they just have to go 32-6 to finish the season. No problem.
Can the Cubs go 20-13? Doesn’t seem like much, especially now that with the Brewers back to .500 the Cubs play 29 games against teams .500 or worse.
You’d think that should be realistic. The Cubs haven’t played well against Cincinnati, Houston or Pissburgh. Three teams they play a combined 18 of those games against.
I’d still rather have my season hinge on beating bad teams than beating good ones.
Greg Couch compares the end of this season to the end of 2004. The schedule-type (playing lots of bad teams at the end) does give off a familiar odor. I’m not sure I can live through that again, though. As bad as games six and seven were in 2003, the worst stretch in my life was that week that wouldn’t end in 2004. From the Victor Diaz homer on Saturday to the Moises Alou check swing on Sunday to Austin Fucking Kearns in the next series and the Cubs wasting a 16 strikeout effort by Mark Prior. Ugh.
Thanks, Greg. Thanks a lot.
So, WHY does A Sor hit so poorly anywhere but first? Because he’s mentally weak. Lou can cure him of that. Hell, Lou can probably reanimate dead presidents.
Maybe a little Seinfeldian logic. You bat first in the first inning. After that, you bat second behind Rich Hill. Then, later on, you bat third behind Hank White. So, you really bat second and third as often as you bat leadoff.
So, WHY does A Sor hit so poorly anywhere but first? Because he’s mentally weak. Lou can cure him of that. Hell, Lou can probably reanimate dead presidents.
Maybe a little Seinfeldian logic. You bat first in the first inning. After that, you bat second behind Rich Hill. Then, later on, you bat third behind Hank White. So, you really bat second and third as often as you bat leadoff.
So, WHY does A Sor hit so poorly anywhere but first? Because he’s mentally weak. Lou can cure him of that. Hell, Lou can probably reanimate dead presidents.
Maybe a little Seinfeldian logic. You bat first in the first inning. After that, you bat second behind Rich Hill. Then, later on, you bat third behind Hank White. So, you really bat second and third as often as you bat leadoff.
Our friend Carol Slezak made my newspaper-reading much more efficient on my ride into work today by proving her article’s irrelevance in the very first sentence.
“If his stint on the disabled list taught us anything, it’s that Alfonso Soriano is the Cubs’ most valuable offensive player.”
Thanks, Carol! Saved me some time.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/slezak/index.html
Don’t underestimate me. Even if I may go wandering from time to time….
Our friend Carol Slezak made my newspaper-reading much more efficient on my ride into work today by proving her article’s irrelevance in the very first sentence.
“If his stint on the disabled list taught us anything, it’s that Alfonso Soriano is the Cubs’ most valuable offensive player.”
Thanks, Carol! Saved me some time.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/slezak/530731,CST-SPT-carol28.article
So, WHY does A Sor hit so poorly anywhere but first? Because he’s mentally weak. Lou can cure him of that. Hell, Lou can probably reanimate dead presidents.
Maybe a little Seinfeldian logic. You bat first in the first inning. After that, you bat second behind Rich Hill. Then, later on, you bat third behind Hank White. So, you really bat second and third as often as you bat leadoff.
Let’s see if I can post once.
What the hell is going on with the double- and triple-posting?
Thanks Andy. The breakdown made me feel better. 20-13 shouldn’t be that difficult. But then again, it’s the Cubs.
hope you guy’s will be seeing me flapping two or maybe three times this series
I’m pretty close to a lock here. There I said it.
Foolish, foolish. I don’t believe in jinxes, but I also don’t think counting your chickens before they hatch is a good idea.
That said, I hope Zambrano gets his no-hitter this series.
Oops, I jinxed it…..
I think #11 was being me, directed at those who complained that a premature post of a similar nature caused the Cubs to drop the third game in S.F.
While funny, I’m just paranoid enough from my decades as a Cub fan to avoid any and all trash talk until the game is won.
I’ve been having site problems too, I thought it was just me using my old computer.
As for Soriano, I looked some stats up yesterday, but was too afraid to post them because of the ridicule I get for posting stats. Since there are stats posted in this Dose, well, you’re gonna get ’em!
Soriano w/men on base — .261/.325/.413
Soriano w/bases empty — .314/.342/.556
Basically, Soriano swings away when he should be patient, and is patient when he should be swinging away. I don’t really like him in the leadoff slot, but apparently it works. He’s one stupid assed ballplayer, but as long as he keeps hitting, all is well.
How does .261/.325/.413 prove he’s patient?
JG,
I think the point is that he’s more patient with nobody on than he is when the pitcher is in “trouble” with runners on base. That’s the .314/.342/.556.
and I am actually somewhere in the middle. I don’t believe in jinxes, but statements like “a sweep is a lock” scare me also.
I also won’t venture any guesses about Big Z. He’s pretty freaking unpredictable.
JG, I said he was a stupid ass, not so much patient. Since you ask, though:
Soriano w/men on base — 14 BB/39 K in 138 ABs
Soriano w/bases empty — 10 BB/56 K in 306 ABs
More walks in less at-bats. That “proves” that he is more “patient” with men on base.
By subtracting AVG from OBP, I could have told you the same thing.
Men on base = .064
Bases empty = .028
What exactly were you trying to say anyway, JG?
I used the J word here last week. Not that I actually believe in them, but I never realized how upset it would make some people. I thought I would have to have to go into hiding. Let’s just say that I’m cautiously optimistic. Can I say that?
Mind if I do a J?
Hey Chuck, could you share your views again? I didn’t get it the first three times.
It super reeks of 2004. A lot of experts besides Joe Morgan believe the Cubs should win the division. It really feels like they should the division but they’ve choked before.
I agree with those who say that 2004 was a bigger kick in the fruitstand than 2003. And I also want to scream when I see people citing the Cubs “easy schedule down the stretch” as a reason why they’ll win the division. For one thing, people with a memory of no more than 15 minutes piss me off. Reporters with a memory that short need to be fired.
The Cubs schedule in September 2004 was pillow-soft, and despite a more talented team than this year, they still managed to collapse. (It took all my will power not to kick the hell out of my seat in section 204 after the last game of the lost series against the Reds during the final week).
Hey guys, bring me in to close out the close games down the stretch, I’m on the case.
If the Cubs win this series 2-1, or even sweep, I think you could pretty much say goodbye to the Milwaukass Brewers this year.
Why is that bastard Couch getting credit for my beautiful article?!