Theo Epstein Sploosh Thread

[Eli]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

I think we'll know more after this offseason and whether they're able to pay up for Choo or Tanaka. From what has been said, I'm not really counting on it, so 2014 will be another rough year. I think most people expect that at this point.

And if we're being realistic, a lack of veteran signings this offseason probably doesn't bode too well for 2015 either. They need several guys who can post 4-5 win seasons to make the jump into 90-win territory (they currently have zero guys like that, with Rizzo as the best possibility). As excited as we are about Baez, Bryant and the other young guys, they're probably not going to come straight up from the minors and dominate.

I do like where their heads are at though. There simply aren't names on the market that you can pay and get those 5 wins, or what have you. They don't exist. The only guys hitting free agency now are old and expensive. Good pieces to wealthy clubs who need to patch up holes to contend. Not super helpful to teams that need to fix almost everything at the major league level.

It'd be great if they got Tanaka but somehow I'm just not picturing that happening.

I'm fine with a third shitty season so long as we're at least seeing one or two of the kids beyond the All-Star Break, and am okay with another struggling team in '15 if they're all up.  I have fond memories of 1987/1988.

Just curious, if someone had told you when Epstein was hired in 2011 that the first truly competitive team would come in 2016, would you have been disappointed?

[PenFoe]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

I think we'll know more after this offseason and whether they're able to pay up for Choo or Tanaka. From what has been said, I'm not really counting on it, so 2014 will be another rough year. I think most people expect that at this point.

And if we're being realistic, a lack of veteran signings this offseason probably doesn't bode too well for 2015 either. They need several guys who can post 4-5 win seasons to make the jump into 90-win territory (they currently have zero guys like that, with Rizzo as the best possibility). As excited as we are about Baez, Bryant and the other young guys, they're probably not going to come straight up from the minors and dominate.

I do like where their heads are at though. There simply aren't names on the market that you can pay and get those 5 wins, or what have you. They don't exist. The only guys hitting free agency now are old and expensive. Good pieces to wealthy clubs who need to patch up holes to contend. Not super helpful to teams that need to fix almost everything at the major league level.

It'd be great if they got Tanaka but somehow I'm just not picturing that happening.

I'm fine with a third shitty season so long as we're at least seeing one or two of the kids beyond the All-Star Break, and am okay with another struggling team in '15 if they're all up.  I have fond memories of 1987/1988.

Just curious, if someone had told you when Epstein was hired in 2011 that the first truly competitive team would come in 2016, would you have been disappointed?

It's a fair question and I think, not knowing what I now know (just how empty the cupboard was, that financial implications would have been this significant) then I'd say yes, but that would have been with the assumption that he was going to go out and spend a bunch of money for high-priced free agents. 

[Internet Apex]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

I think we'll know more after this offseason and whether they're able to pay up for Choo or Tanaka. From what has been said, I'm not really counting on it, so 2014 will be another rough year. I think most people expect that at this point.

And if we're being realistic, a lack of veteran signings this offseason probably doesn't bode too well for 2015 either. They need several guys who can post 4-5 win seasons to make the jump into 90-win territory (they currently have zero guys like that, with Rizzo as the best possibility). As excited as we are about Baez, Bryant and the other young guys, they're probably not going to come straight up from the minors and dominate.

I do like where their heads are at though. There simply aren't names on the market that you can pay and get those 5 wins, or what have you. They don't exist. The only guys hitting free agency now are old and expensive. Good pieces to wealthy clubs who need to patch up holes to contend. Not super helpful to teams that need to fix almost everything at the major league level.

It'd be great if they got Tanaka but somehow I'm just not picturing that happening.

I'm fine with a third shitty season so long as we're at least seeing one or two of the kids beyond the All-Star Break, and am okay with another struggling team in '15 if they're all up.  I have fond memories of 1987/1988.

Just curious, if someone had told you when Epstein was hired in 2011 that the first truly competitive team would come in 2016, would you have been disappointed?

It's a fair question and I think, not knowing what I now know (just how empty the cupboard was, that financial implications would have been this significant) then I'd say yes, but that would have been with the assumption that he was going to go out and spend a bunch of money for high-priced free agents. 

I would have been disappointed but at this point I'm not. I can do two bad years standing on my head.

[Quality Start Machine]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

I think we'll know more after this offseason and whether they're able to pay up for Choo or Tanaka. From what has been said, I'm not really counting on it, so 2014 will be another rough year. I think most people expect that at this point.

And if we're being realistic, a lack of veteran signings this offseason probably doesn't bode too well for 2015 either. They need several guys who can post 4-5 win seasons to make the jump into 90-win territory (they currently have zero guys like that, with Rizzo as the best possibility). As excited as we are about Baez, Bryant and the other young guys, they're probably not going to come straight up from the minors and dominate.

I do like where their heads are at though. There simply aren't names on the market that you can pay and get those 5 wins, or what have you. They don't exist. The only guys hitting free agency now are old and expensive. Good pieces to wealthy clubs who need to patch up holes to contend. Not super helpful to teams that need to fix almost everything at the major league level.

It'd be great if they got Tanaka but somehow I'm just not picturing that happening.

I'm fine with a third shitty season so long as we're at least seeing one or two of the kids beyond the All-Star Break, and am okay with another struggling team in '15 if they're all up.  I have fond memories of 1987/1988.

Just curious, if someone had told you when Epstein was hired in 2011 that the first truly competitive team would come in 2016, would you have been disappointed?

It's a fair question and I think, not knowing what I now know (just how empty the cupboard was, that financial implications would have been this significant) then I'd say yes, but that would have been with the assumption that he was going to go out and spend a bunch of money for high-priced free agents. 

I would have been disappointed but at this point I'm not. I can do two bad years standing on my head.

Plus, they are sticking to the plan of building the organization from the ground up, which has the possibility of working long term. As opposed to running out and overpaying for a bunch of guys who could give you a year (or two - see 2007-08) of lightning in a bottle, which is certain to not work long term.

[R-V]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

A fan groused to Epstein about the Edwin Jackson signing, and Epstein took a middle road, noting that he didn't have the year the Cubs hoped he would, but that his underlying metrics indicated he wasn't all that bad. Epstein expects a good year from Jackson in 2014. Unfortunately, Epstein also said this, paraphrased: "We also got a little ahead of ourselves, and didn't fully understand our situation. If we had full knowledge of business timing and plan at that time, we might have been more patient." Ouch. He's saying that, had they known last year at this time just how far off the big revenues were and/or how tight things were going to be, they might have waited to spend the cash.

Rewinding the thread for a moment, RV's quote chopped off this gloss from Bleacher Nation's Brett:

That paints a fairly dire picture, doesn't it? Probably more dire than is intended, and I guess we already know that the Wrigley problems have delayed those anticipated revenues by a year. Add it to the evidence pile that big spending this offseason is not likely, though.

I think that is exactly the point here.

Which is to say: No, RV.

My concern is not just that timing has changed, it's that amounts have changed. What if the original medium-term budget given to Epstein/Hoyer was based on the assumption that the Ricketts would get some help from the city/county/state to pay for the renovations? And now that they're staring a half billion self-funded renovation in the face, some of that incremental revenue will go towards paying that down rather than funding the team?

[Internet Apex]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

A fan groused to Epstein about the Edwin Jackson signing, and Epstein took a middle road, noting that he didn't have the year the Cubs hoped he would, but that his underlying metrics indicated he wasn't all that bad. Epstein expects a good year from Jackson in 2014. Unfortunately, Epstein also said this, paraphrased: "We also got a little ahead of ourselves, and didn't fully understand our situation. If we had full knowledge of business timing and plan at that time, we might have been more patient." Ouch. He's saying that, had they known last year at this time just how far off the big revenues were and/or how tight things were going to be, they might have waited to spend the cash.

Rewinding the thread for a moment, RV's quote chopped off this gloss from Bleacher Nation's Brett:

That paints a fairly dire picture, doesn't it? Probably more dire than is intended, and I guess we already know that the Wrigley problems have delayed those anticipated revenues by a year. Add it to the evidence pile that big spending this offseason is not likely, though.

I think that is exactly the point here.

Which is to say: No, RV.

My concern is not just that timing has changed, it's that amounts have changed. What if the original medium-term budget given to Epstein/Hoyer was based on the assumption that the Ricketts would get some help from the city/county/state to pay for the renovations? And now that they're staring a half billion self-funded renovation in the face, some of that incremental revenue will go towards paying that down rather than funding the team?

I would say, in that case, that payroll will likely be lower than it would have been otherwise.

[R-V]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

A fan groused to Epstein about the Edwin Jackson signing, and Epstein took a middle road, noting that he didn't have the year the Cubs hoped he would, but that his underlying metrics indicated he wasn't all that bad. Epstein expects a good year from Jackson in 2014. Unfortunately, Epstein also said this, paraphrased: "We also got a little ahead of ourselves, and didn't fully understand our situation. If we had full knowledge of business timing and plan at that time, we might have been more patient." Ouch. He's saying that, had they known last year at this time just how far off the big revenues were and/or how tight things were going to be, they might have waited to spend the cash.

Rewinding the thread for a moment, RV's quote chopped off this gloss from Bleacher Nation's Brett:

That paints a fairly dire picture, doesn't it? Probably more dire than is intended, and I guess we already know that the Wrigley problems have delayed those anticipated revenues by a year. Add it to the evidence pile that big spending this offseason is not likely, though.

I think that is exactly the point here.

Which is to say: No, RV.

My concern is not just that timing has changed, it's that amounts have changed. What if the original medium-term budget given to Epstein/Hoyer was based on the assumption that the Ricketts would get some help from the city/county/state to pay for the renovations? And now that they're staring a half billion self-funded renovation in the face, some of that incremental revenue will go towards paying that down rather than funding the team?

I would say, in that case, that payroll will likely be lower than it would have been otherwise.

FINALLY YOU SHEEPLE ARE SEEING THE LIGHT.

[Slaky]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

I think we'll know more after this offseason and whether they're able to pay up for Choo or Tanaka. From what has been said, I'm not really counting on it, so 2014 will be another rough year. I think most people expect that at this point.

And if we're being realistic, a lack of veteran signings this offseason probably doesn't bode too well for 2015 either. They need several guys who can post 4-5 win seasons to make the jump into 90-win territory (they currently have zero guys like that, with Rizzo as the best possibility). As excited as we are about Baez, Bryant and the other young guys, they're probably not going to come straight up from the minors and dominate.

I do like where their heads are at though. There simply aren't names on the market that you can pay and get those 5 wins, or what have you. They don't exist. The only guys hitting free agency now are old and expensive. Good pieces to wealthy clubs who need to patch up holes to contend. Not super helpful to teams that need to fix almost everything at the major league level.

It'd be great if they got Tanaka but somehow I'm just not picturing that happening.

I'm fine with a third shitty season so long as we're at least seeing one or two of the kids beyond the All-Star Break, and am okay with another struggling team in '15 if they're all up.  I have fond memories of 1987/1988.

Just curious, if someone had told you when Epstein was hired in 2011 that the first truly competitive team would come in 2016, would you have been disappointed?

I feel like I always had that year in my head as the season where things finally start to come together.

As for concerns about payroll - if your superstar hitters are all cost controlled youngsters (which at that time, IF things work out, they would be) does not having a mega-budget matter as much?

Maybe you can't throw 10 yrs/250 million at someone but the hope is you never have to.

[Eli]

I feel like I always had that year in my head as the season where things finally start to come together.

I'll admit that initially I had 2014 in my head. Maybe I bought into Theo's press conference bullshit about how "every chance to win is sacred." He probably should have scrapped that line.

[Saul Goodman]

I feel like I always had that year in my head as the season where things finally start to come together.

I'll admit that initially I had 2014 in my head. Maybe I bought into Theo's press conference bullshit about how "every chance to win is sacred." He probably should have scrapped that line.

Hindsight and all that, but I think that means every chance to win is sacred once you have talent on the roster.  Like, if you're better than a .500 team, you should value every chance to win, but if your team is absolute horseshit you should acquire talent instead of wasting money in a futile effort to win.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

I think we'll know more after this offseason and whether they're able to pay up for Choo or Tanaka. From what has been said, I'm not really counting on it, so 2014 will be another rough year. I think most people expect that at this point.

And if we're being realistic, a lack of veteran signings this offseason probably doesn't bode too well for 2015 either. They need several guys who can post 4-5 win seasons to make the jump into 90-win territory (they currently have zero guys like that, with Rizzo as the best possibility). As excited as we are about Baez, Bryant and the other young guys, they're probably not going to come straight up from the minors and dominate.

I do like where their heads are at though. There simply aren't names on the market that you can pay and get those 5 wins, or what have you. They don't exist. The only guys hitting free agency now are old and expensive. Good pieces to wealthy clubs who need to patch up holes to contend. Not super helpful to teams that need to fix almost everything at the major league level.

It'd be great if they got Tanaka but somehow I'm just not picturing that happening.

I'm fine with a third shitty season so long as we're at least seeing one or two of the kids beyond the All-Star Break, and am okay with another struggling team in '15 if they're all up.  I have fond memories of 1987/1988.

Just curious, if someone had told you when Epstein was hired in 2011 that the first truly competitive team would come in 2016, would you have been disappointed?

I would probably have gone along with it at the time just because what other choice did I have other than to throw my lot in with Theo's, but that's not to say it'd be any easier.  I went into the last 2 years with zero expectations and thus have no had no emotional investment in this team.  But I don't know, now, if I can do 2 more years.  Then again, if they're trending upward--which you should be able to see by 2015, then I'm fine, I guess.

[Eli]

I feel like I always had that year in my head as the season where things finally start to come together.

I'll admit that initially I had 2014 in my head. Maybe I bought into Theo's press conference bullshit about how "every chance to win is sacred." He probably should have scrapped that line.

Hindsight and all that, but I think that means every chance to win is sacred once you have talent on the roster.  Like, if you're better than a .500 team, you should value every chance to win, but if your team is absolute horseshit you should acquire talent instead of wasting money in a futile effort to win.

That seems like a generous interpretation.

[Slaky]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

I think we'll know more after this offseason and whether they're able to pay up for Choo or Tanaka. From what has been said, I'm not really counting on it, so 2014 will be another rough year. I think most people expect that at this point.

And if we're being realistic, a lack of veteran signings this offseason probably doesn't bode too well for 2015 either. They need several guys who can post 4-5 win seasons to make the jump into 90-win territory (they currently have zero guys like that, with Rizzo as the best possibility). As excited as we are about Baez, Bryant and the other young guys, they're probably not going to come straight up from the minors and dominate.

I do like where their heads are at though. There simply aren't names on the market that you can pay and get those 5 wins, or what have you. They don't exist. The only guys hitting free agency now are old and expensive. Good pieces to wealthy clubs who need to patch up holes to contend. Not super helpful to teams that need to fix almost everything at the major league level.

It'd be great if they got Tanaka but somehow I'm just not picturing that happening.

I'm fine with a third shitty season so long as we're at least seeing one or two of the kids beyond the All-Star Break, and am okay with another struggling team in '15 if they're all up.  I have fond memories of 1987/1988.

Just curious, if someone had told you when Epstein was hired in 2011 that the first truly competitive team would come in 2016, would you have been disappointed?

I would probably have gone along with it at the time just because what other choice did I have other than to throw my lot in with Theo's, but that's not to say it'd be any easier.  I went into the last 2 years with zero expectations and thus have no had no emotional investment in this team.  But I don't know, now, if I can do 2 more years.  Then again, if they're trending upward--which you should be able to see by 2015, then I'm fine, I guess.

I mean I'd argue they are trending upwards because there's no room to trend downwards.

I'd also ask those who feel like progress is little to non-existent what they'd have done differently to get that roster competitive earlier. What route?

I realize that's akin to responding to someone questioning any general manager's activity with "I don't see you working in major league baseball" but it's pretty easy to refute someone bitching about this process taking too long with about 1,000 different reasons why they should be patient.

And if you can't afford to be patient (sorry Stew) I mean, hey, it's just fucking baseball.

[Internet Apex]

Anyone else disturbed by this (paraphrased) quote? Have Theo & Jed been getting moving targets for spending for the near future?

I think we'll know more after this offseason and whether they're able to pay up for Choo or Tanaka. From what has been said, I'm not really counting on it, so 2014 will be another rough year. I think most people expect that at this point.

And if we're being realistic, a lack of veteran signings this offseason probably doesn't bode too well for 2015 either. They need several guys who can post 4-5 win seasons to make the jump into 90-win territory (they currently have zero guys like that, with Rizzo as the best possibility). As excited as we are about Baez, Bryant and the other young guys, they're probably not going to come straight up from the minors and dominate.

I do like where their heads are at though. There simply aren't names on the market that you can pay and get those 5 wins, or what have you. They don't exist. The only guys hitting free agency now are old and expensive. Good pieces to wealthy clubs who need to patch up holes to contend. Not super helpful to teams that need to fix almost everything at the major league level.

It'd be great if they got Tanaka but somehow I'm just not picturing that happening.

I'm fine with a third shitty season so long as we're at least seeing one or two of the kids beyond the All-Star Break, and am okay with another struggling team in '15 if they're all up.  I have fond memories of 1987/1988.

Just curious, if someone had told you when Epstein was hired in 2011 that the first truly competitive team would come in 2016, would you have been disappointed?

I would probably have gone along with it at the time just because what other choice did I have other than to throw my lot in with Theo's, but that's not to say it'd be any easier.  I went into the last 2 years with zero expectations and thus have no had no emotional investment in this team.  But I don't know, now, if I can do 2 more years.  Then again, if they're trending upward--which you should be able to see by 2015, then I'm fine, I guess.

The problem, for me, will manifest if they start calling these top prospects up and it becomes clear that most of them can't play. My level of trust depends on several of these guys panning out. If that doesn't happen, they won't trend upward by 2015 and then they'll start signing big money free agents in an attempt to save their phony baloney jobs. At that point I may give up on the sport indefinitely.

[Brownie]

They will win anywhere between 78 and 84 games this year. They'll have us thinking they'e in contention in late June, with something like a 40-32 record. But then they'll go into a 23-game stretch with Pittsburgh, the Nats, the Braves and Cardinals in which they'll go 5-18, putting them under .500 (45-50) at the break and they'll sputter a little bit out of the break, going 5-8 (50-58) up to the trade deadline. They'll be decided sellers at the deadline, possibly moving Edwin Jackson and Nate Schierholtz.

Then they'll hit a stride in late August and September going 29-25 the rest of the way, including 15-10 in September (79-83). But they'll be loaded for bear int he offseason and with apologies to Ernie Banks, they'll be as sweet as Dentyne in 2015. Not putrid, not a protected draft pick, but we'll be completely undistracted as a pissed off Jay Cutler plays out his string under the franchise tag in September 2014. Yay?