Desipio Message Board

Quote from: PenFoe on June 27, 2014, 05:00:44 PM

Quote from: Slaky on June 27, 2014, 04:57:31 PM
There's a book called Soccernomics that gets into the game theory behind penalties and it's very very interesting.

Since we're never gonna read it, do you have any insight you could share?

Sometimes they shoot to the right, sometimes they shoot to the left. Pick one and pray. Reverse if you're the one shooting.

Timely post...

Extra Time Isn't a Crapshoot in the Knockout Round, But Penalties Are

QuoteOf course, some matches feature much heavier favorites than others. So we ran a logistic regression model to estimate the favorite's win probability based on the difference in the team's Elo ratings. Those results are reflected by the red line in the chart below.



In a knockout-stage game featuring teams with a 100-point Elo-rating difference — for instance, Italy and Ivory Coast based on their pre-World Cup Elo ratings — the favorite (in this case, Italy) starts out with a 64 percent chance of winning. If the game is tied at the end of regulation play, the favorite's chance of winning (either after extra time or on penalties) is reduced to 56 percent. Its edge is even smaller if extra time is drawn and the only way to win is on penalties — it has just a 53 percent chance of prevailing at that point, we estimate.

Where the difference between the teams is larger, the favorite maintains more of an edge. Argentina and Algeria, for example, have about a 350-point Elo-rating difference. Argentina would have a 71 percent chance of winning such a game after it went to extra time. However, its edge would be quite small — it would only be about a 60-40 favorite — if the game went to penalties.

What Tonker said.

Brazil / Chile what a fucking game.

The last desperate attack of the Mexicans

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on June 29, 2014, 12:56:15 PM
The last desperate attack of the Mexicans

Stay out of Pilsen tonight.

They later deleted it but not before a string of angry replies.  Maybe someone made an especially cutting Tenerife reference as the last time KLM got itself into trouble with Spanish speakers.

Quote from: Tonker on June 29, 2014, 05:15:32 PM
Huntelaar's penalty, on Plein in Den Haag.

This game would have been a lot more fun to watch if Robben didn't dive like a seventies porn star.

Quote from: Tonker on June 29, 2014, 05:15:32 PM
Huntelaar's penalty, on Plein in Den Haag.

"Check out this douchebag!"

This fucking dire.  Argentina and Switzerland should both be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.  Can they both be eliminated?  Belgium and the US could have a bye.

Holy fucking shit.  History is being made, right here.

Quote from: Tonker on July 08, 2014, 04:10:42 PM
Holy fucking shit.  History is being made, right here.

Twitter tells me that the last time Brazil lost a competitive game at home was the year before I was born.

Quote from: Tonker on July 08, 2014, 04:10:42 PM
Holy fucking shit.  History is being made, right here.

Everywhere. All the time.

Quote from: Tonker on July 08, 2014, 04:10:42 PM
Holy fucking shit.  History is being made, right here.

The Brazillian Al Yellon is having the time of his life.

Quote from: Tonker on July 08, 2014, 04:10:42 PM
Holy fucking shit.  History is being made, right here.

I have a feeling that about 6 of my clients have just committed the Brazilian version of ritual Seppuku.