2015 Cubs Offseason: Building a Winner Around David Ross

[Eli]

I missed this last week, but I think it's a pretty fair and measured analysis of Schwarber's offensive skills and his defensive, uh, skills(?).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kyle-schwarber-chicago-cubs-future/

Something that I don't think gets talked about with trading Schwarber is his body type (insert standard Desipio BMI joke). Guys like him age differently than thinner players and it's not particularly pretty. Then again, it's entirely possible that the value of his bat will be so substantial in the next 2-3 years it would surpass whatever value you could get from him in a trade this winter. I worry more about him once he hits his later 20s, but I guess that's still a ways off.

All that said, this is mostly for the sake of combating offseason boredom. I still don't think he's going anywhere.

So who are these people I keep hearing about who think the Cubs should trade Schwarber?

I don't have a full list of names.

[SKO]

How many runs does a LF realistically cost a team over season? I'm guessing fewer than he's going to drive in.

Well, if you want a depressing example, 2008 Adam Dunn hit 40 homers with a .900 OPS and was still a below-replacement-level player because his defense was so bad. Of course, Dunn was historically terrible in the outfield and Schwarber should be able to top that (I sure hope).

Right. Well both BR (1.7) and Fangraphs (1.9) had him as being well above average in just 69 (nice) games. So as I pointed out before that's a 4+ win pace if he maintained the same offensive production and the same mediocre defense he managed this year over a full season. So he's obviously not Adam Dunn level bad, and I don't see why he can't improve somewhat next year if he spends a full offseason tracking balls in the outfield with the help of professional coaching. He's never going to cover a ton of ground but simply avoiding the abysmal drops and shit that we saw in the playoffs will probably make him a non-embarrassment in the field.

[R-V]

How many runs does a LF realistically cost a team over season? I'm guessing fewer than he's going to drive in.

Well, if you want a depressing example, 2008 Adam Dunn hit 40 homers with a .900 OPS and was still a below-replacement-level player because his defense was so bad. Of course, Dunn was historically terrible in the outfield and Schwarber should be able to top that (I sure hope).

Right. Well both BR (1.7) and Fangraphs (1.9) had him as being well above average in just 69 (nice) games. So as I pointed out before that's a 4+ win pace if he maintained the same offensive production and the same mediocre defense he managed this year over a full season. So he's obviously not Adam Dunn level bad, and I don't see why he can't improve somewhat next year if he spends a full offseason tracking balls in the outfield with the help of professional coaching. He's never going to cover a ton of ground but simply avoiding the abysmal drops and shit that we saw in the playoffs will probably make him a non-embarrassment in the field.

Also a .900 OPS in the depressed run environment of 2016 (barring rule changes to stop the current trend) is going to be a hell of a lot more valuable than a .900 OPS was in 2008.

[Quality Start Machine]

I missed this last week, but I think it's a pretty fair and measured analysis of Schwarber's offensive skills and his defensive, uh, skills(?).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kyle-schwarber-chicago-cubs-future/

Something that I don't think gets talked about with trading Schwarber is his body type (insert standard Desipio BMI joke). Guys like him age differently than thinner players and it's not particularly pretty. Then again, it's entirely possible that the value of his bat will be so substantial in the next 2-3 years it would surpass whatever value you could get from him in a trade this winter. I worry more about him once he hits his later 20s, but I guess that's still a ways off.

All that said, this is mostly for the sake of combating offseason boredom. I still don't think he's going anywhere.

So who are these people I keep hearing about who think the Cubs should trade Schwarber?

I don't have a full list of names.

Get back to me on this.

[SKO]

I missed this last week, but I think it's a pretty fair and measured analysis of Schwarber's offensive skills and his defensive, uh, skills(?).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kyle-schwarber-chicago-cubs-future/

Something that I don't think gets talked about with trading Schwarber is his body type (insert standard Desipio BMI joke). Guys like him age differently than thinner players and it's not particularly pretty. Then again, it's entirely possible that the value of his bat will be so substantial in the next 2-3 years it would surpass whatever value you could get from him in a trade this winter. I worry more about him once he hits his later 20s, but I guess that's still a ways off.

All that said, this is mostly for the sake of combating offseason boredom. I still don't think he's going anywhere.

So who are these people I keep hearing about who think the Cubs should trade Schwarber?

I don't have a full list of names.

Get back to me on this.

Probably the same people who insisted the Cubs had to trade a shortstop before this season.

[Saul Goodman]

How many runs does a LF realistically cost a team over season? I'm guessing fewer than he's going to drive in.

Well, if you want a depressing example, 2008 Adam Dunn hit 40 homers with a .900 OPS and was still a below-replacement-level player because his defense was so bad. Of course, Dunn was historically terrible in the outfield and Schwarber should be able to top that (I sure hope).

Right. Well both BR (1.7) and Fangraphs (1.9) had him as being well above average in just 69 (nice) games. So as I pointed out before that's a 4+ win pace if he maintained the same offensive production and the same mediocre defense he managed this year over a full season. So he's obviously not Adam Dunn level bad, and I don't see why he can't improve somewhat next year if he spends a full offseason tracking balls in the outfield with the help of professional coaching. He's never going to cover a ton of ground but simply avoiding the abysmal drops and shit that we saw in the playoffs will probably make him a non-embarrassment in the field.

Also a .900 OPS in the depressed run environment of 2016 (barring rule changes to stop the current trend) is going to be a hell of a lot more valuable than a .900 OPS was in 2008 when .900 OPS's grew on trees.

[Oleg]

I missed this last week, but I think it's a pretty fair and measured analysis of Schwarber's offensive skills and his defensive, uh, skills(?).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kyle-schwarber-chicago-cubs-future/

Something that I don't think gets talked about with trading Schwarber is his body type (insert standard Desipio BMI joke). Guys like him age differently than thinner players and it's not particularly pretty. Then again, it's entirely possible that the value of his bat will be so substantial in the next 2-3 years it would surpass whatever value you could get from him in a trade this winter. I worry more about him once he hits his later 20s, but I guess that's still a ways off.

All that said, this is mostly for the sake of combating offseason boredom. I still don't think he's going anywhere.

So who are these people I keep hearing about who think the Cubs should trade Schwarber?

I don't think they *should* trade Schwarber (that's a stupid way of saying it) but if they can get Sonny Gray or the like?  I'd think I wouldn't be upset if The Cubs considered that.

[SKO]

I missed this last week, but I think it's a pretty fair and measured analysis of Schwarber's offensive skills and his defensive, uh, skills(?).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kyle-schwarber-chicago-cubs-future/

Something that I don't think gets talked about with trading Schwarber is his body type (insert standard Desipio BMI joke). Guys like him age differently than thinner players and it's not particularly pretty. Then again, it's entirely possible that the value of his bat will be so substantial in the next 2-3 years it would surpass whatever value you could get from him in a trade this winter. I worry more about him once he hits his later 20s, but I guess that's still a ways off.

All that said, this is mostly for the sake of combating offseason boredom. I still don't think he's going anywhere.

So who are these people I keep hearing about who think the Cubs should trade Schwarber?

I don't think they *should* trade Schwarber (that's a stupid way of saying it) but if they can get Sonny Gray or the like?  I'd think I wouldn't be upset if The Cubs considered that.

I think that's where the rub is. Of course I don't think Schwarber is untouchable, but he seems like a guy that is as close to a lock to OPS north of .850 and hit 30+ bombs from the left side of the plate as you'll find. I would pretty much only trade that guy for a proven, young, top of the line starter, and it'd be straight up. While I think Jepstink were wise to accumulate young hitters in this offense scarce market, this year's trade deadline showed me that in terms of prospects a lot of teams still prefer to accumulate pitching. The Mets run certainly isn't going to do us any favors in this regard. So while I think it's probably harder to find a bat like Kyle Schwarber's than an arm like Sonny Gray's (not that either is easy), I don't think the A's would ever see it that way.

He basically has Schroedinger's trade value: he is too valuable to trade for anyone who isn't too valuable to be traded for him.

[Tonker]

I missed this last week, but I think it's a pretty fair and measured analysis of Schwarber's offensive skills and his defensive, uh, skills(?).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kyle-schwarber-chicago-cubs-future/

Something that I don't think gets talked about with trading Schwarber is his body type (insert standard Desipio BMI joke). Guys like him age differently than thinner players and it's not particularly pretty. Then again, it's entirely possible that the value of his bat will be so substantial in the next 2-3 years it would surpass whatever value you could get from him in a trade this winter. I worry more about him once he hits his later 20s, but I guess that's still a ways off.

All that said, this is mostly for the sake of combating offseason boredom. I still don't think he's going anywhere.

So who are these people I keep hearing about who think the Cubs should trade Schwarber?

I don't think they *should* trade Schwarber (that's a stupid way of saying it) but if they can get Sonny Gray or the like?  I'd think I wouldn't be upset if The Cubs considered that.

I think that's where the rub is. Of course I don't think Schwarber is untouchable, but he seems like a guy that is as close to a lock to OPS north of .850 and hit 30+ bombs from the left side of the plate as you'll find. I would pretty much only trade that guy for a proven, young, top of the line starter, and it'd be straight up. While I think Jepstink were wise to accumulate young hitters in this offense scarce market, this year's trade deadline showed me that in terms of prospects a lot of teams still prefer to accumulate pitching. The Mets run certainly isn't going to do us any favors in this regard. So while I think it's probably harder to find a bat like Kyle Schwarber's than an arm like Sonny Gray's (not that either is easy), I don't think the A's would ever see it that way.

He basically has Schroedinger's trade value: he is too valuable to trade for anyone who isn't too valuable to be traded for him.

Surely that's Groucho's trade value?

[SKO]

I missed this last week, but I think it's a pretty fair and measured analysis of Schwarber's offensive skills and his defensive, uh, skills(?).

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kyle-schwarber-chicago-cubs-future/

Something that I don't think gets talked about with trading Schwarber is his body type (insert standard Desipio BMI joke). Guys like him age differently than thinner players and it's not particularly pretty. Then again, it's entirely possible that the value of his bat will be so substantial in the next 2-3 years it would surpass whatever value you could get from him in a trade this winter. I worry more about him once he hits his later 20s, but I guess that's still a ways off.

All that said, this is mostly for the sake of combating offseason boredom. I still don't think he's going anywhere.

So who are these people I keep hearing about who think the Cubs should trade Schwarber?

I don't think they *should* trade Schwarber (that's a stupid way of saying it) but if they can get Sonny Gray or the like?  I'd think I wouldn't be upset if The Cubs considered that.

I think that's where the rub is. Of course I don't think Schwarber is untouchable, but he seems like a guy that is as close to a lock to OPS north of .850 and hit 30+ bombs from the left side of the plate as you'll find. I would pretty much only trade that guy for a proven, young, top of the line starter, and it'd be straight up. While I think Jepstink were wise to accumulate young hitters in this offense scarce market, this year's trade deadline showed me that in terms of prospects a lot of teams still prefer to accumulate pitching. The Mets run certainly isn't going to do us any favors in this regard. So while I think it's probably harder to find a bat like Kyle Schwarber's than an arm like Sonny Gray's (not that either is easy), I don't think the A's would ever see it that way.

He basically has Schroedinger's trade value: he is too valuable to trade for anyone who isn't too valuable to be traded for him.

Surely that's Groucho's trade value?

Either way there's a dead cat, is what I'm saying.

[Eli]

Right. Well both BR (1.7) and Fangraphs (1.9) had him as being well above average in just 69 (nice) games. So as I pointed out before that's a 4+ win pace if he maintained the same offensive production and the same mediocre defense he managed this year over a full season. So he's obviously not Adam Dunn level bad, and I don't see why he can't improve somewhat next year if he spends a full offseason tracking balls in the outfield with the help of professional coaching. He's never going to cover a ton of ground but simply avoiding the abysmal drops and shit that we saw in the playoffs will probably make him a non-embarrassment in the field.

My main point was just in response to the "he'll drive in more than he lets in" argument that I've seen pop up. It's entirely possible to negate most of a bat's value, even in left field. He could certainly improve there, or the numbers could look worse as the sample size becomes larger. 

Two of the worst defenders in baseball this year happened to be two of the best hitters, so we actually have a decent idea of what a Jekyll and Hyde Schwarber scenario could look like in the modern environment:

Nelson Cruz - 158 wRC+, -17.6 defensive runs, 4.8 WAR
Jose Bautista - 148 wRC+, -18.9 defensive runs, 4.5 WAR

Those are still very valuable players, obviously, but their defense caps their overall upside. Maybe Schwarber won't be as bad out there are these guys, but there's also a pretty good chance he's not going to hit like Jose Bautista over a full season.

Given his defensive limitations, I think it's tough to see him topping 5 WAR even in a best-case scenario. That would obviously be a result worth keeping around because 4-5 win seasons for cheap are very valuable. But some fans are acting like we'd be trading away a guy with a Mike Trout type of ceiling.

[SKO]

Right. Well both BR (1.7) and Fangraphs (1.9) had him as being well above average in just 69 (nice) games. So as I pointed out before that's a 4+ win pace if he maintained the same offensive production and the same mediocre defense he managed this year over a full season. So he's obviously not Adam Dunn level bad, and I don't see why he can't improve somewhat next year if he spends a full offseason tracking balls in the outfield with the help of professional coaching. He's never going to cover a ton of ground but simply avoiding the abysmal drops and shit that we saw in the playoffs will probably make him a non-embarrassment in the field.

My main point was just in response to the "he'll drive in more than he lets in" argument that I've seen pop up. It's entirely possible to negate most of a bat's value, even in left field. He could certainly improve there, or the numbers could look worse as the sample size becomes larger. 

Two of the worst defenders in baseball this year happened to be two of the best hitters, so we actually have a decent idea of what a Jekyll and Hyde Schwarber scenario could look like in the modern environment:

Nelson Cruz - 158 wRC+, -17.6 defensive runs, 4.8 WAR
Jose Bautista - 148 wRC+, -18.9 defensive runs, 4.5 WAR

Those are still very valuable players, obviously, but their defense caps their overall upside. Maybe Schwarber won't be as bad out there are these guys, but there's also a pretty good chance he's not going to hit like Jose Bautista over a full season.

Given his defensive limitations, I think it's tough to see him topping 5 WAR even in a best-case scenario. That would obviously be a result worth keeping around because 4-5 win seasons for cheap are very valuable. But some fans are acting like we'd be trading away a guy with a Mike Trout type of ceiling.

Yeah, I am basing this off a 3-4 win projection, and you just don't trade young, cost-controlled position players of that caliber unless you're getting a bonafide top of the rotation starting pitcher, and most teams are more reluctant to give a "true number one" pitcher away than the Cubs would be to give up Schwarber. I certainly wouldn't trade him for Carrasco or Ross or any other solid #2 types whose elbows scare the living piss out of me.

[R-V]

How many runs does a LF realistically cost a team over season? I'm guessing fewer than he's going to drive in.

Well, if you want a depressing example, 2008 Adam Dunn hit 40 homers with a .900 OPS and was still a below-replacement-level player because his defense was so bad. Of course, Dunn was historically terrible in the outfield and Schwarber should be able to top that (I sure hope).

Right. Well both BR (1.7) and Fangraphs (1.9) had him as being well above average in just 69 (nice) games. So as I pointed out before that's a 4+ win pace if he maintained the same offensive production and the same mediocre defense he managed this year over a full season. So he's obviously not Adam Dunn level bad, and I don't see why he can't improve somewhat next year if he spends a full offseason tracking balls in the outfield with the help of professional coaching. He's never going to cover a ton of ground but simply avoiding the abysmal drops and shit that we saw in the playoffs will probably make him a non-embarrassment in the field.

Also a .900 OPS in the depressed run environment of 2016 (barring rule changes to stop the current trend) is going to be a hell of a lot more valuable than a .900 OPS was in 2008.

So assuming this is an apples to apples comparison - and I think it is because they're both NL players, and I'm using oWAR as opposed to overall WAR, which I think ignores positional considerations - a .900 OPS is worth 2 wins more now than it was in 2008.

Dunn 2008 - .898 OPS - 3.1 oWAR
Rizzo 2015 - .899 OPS - 5.1 oWAR

[Canadouche]

The more we talk about it, the more certain I am that people will be somewhat upset regardless of who gets traded, even if we like who the Cubs get in return. Does anybody really want to imagine the team next year without Castro, Baez, or Soler? My feeling is that one of those three will be gone for sure.

[Eli]

Does anybody really want to imagine the team next year without Castro, Baez, or Soler?

Sure. It's not like they'll just disappear -- someone would fairly valuable will have come back in their place.