When it comes to the scientific analysis of baseball, I know you all come here, and frankly, I can’t blame you.  Who thinks deeper than I do?

OK, everybody does, but still.  Today, we’ll take a purely scientific look at the National League Division Series that starts tomorrow night between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the beloved Cubs of Chicago.

You can’t have a big series without one of those obvious, ridiculous, useless position-by-position comparisons that prove nothing.

So let’s do it.

First Base — Derrek Lee, Cubs v. James Loney, Dodgers

How fitting was it that the regular season ended with Derrek Lee grounding into a double play?  I mean really, who saw that coming?  Based on that alone, I’m ranking Loney over Lee.  I don’t care what the other numbers say, you can’t ground into that many double plays and be useful.  So it’s Loney all the way.

Lee grounded into 27 double plays in 623 at bats, James Loney grounded into 25 double plays in 595 at bats.

Seriously?  Oh, well I guess I should go a little deeper.

Loney and Lee had similar numbers, both drove in 90 runs, Lee hit two points higher (.291 to .289) and hit seven more homers.  Loney’s a good defender, but Lee’s better and has a better beard.

Advantage: CUBS (1-0)

Second Base — Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot, Cubs v. Jeff Kent and Blake Dewitt, Dodgers

DeRosa has a sore calf:

but not two heads.  And he’ll probably start a game or two in right so that Fontenot can get some hacks in.  In every series one team has a player go all Mark Lemke and play out of their minds.  DeRosa and Fontenot are probably the Cubs’ two best candidates for that.  (Think Augie Ojeda last year…no, don’t it’ll just piss you off.)  As for the Dodgers, Jeff Kent was playing well when he got hurt, even though he refused to believe that any of his success was due to hitting in front of Manny Ramirez.  See, Kent’s an asshole.  Dewitt did a nice job playing there in Kent’s absence, and since Kent had no range before he got hurt and has even less now, Dewitt might get the call.  

Two things that might swing this either way.  

1. Blake’s mom is former “Three’s Company” star Joyce DeWitt. 
 

2. Jeff Kent is an asshole.

One those things isn’t true.

Advantage: CUBS (2-0)

Shortstop — Ryan Theriot, Cubs v. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers

Furcal missed most of the season after back surgery and Theriot had a great year (for a guy his size) at the plate.  Theriot hit .306, he had 178 hits, his on base average was .378, he walked more (73) times than he struck out (58).  He stole 22 bases (and got caught an absurd 13 times).  Of course, he plays shortstop like the goal is to see how close you can make every play at first, or maybe it’s just his arm?

Furcal’s a drunk.

Advantage: CUBS (3-0)

Third Base — E-ramis Ramirez, Cubs v. Casey Blake, Dodgers

I like Casey Blake.  He’s a nice player, even with the creepy full beard thing.  He was a good pickup by the Dodgers and filled a gaping hole at third (you know, the one Nomar was supposed to fill) for them.  

Phil Rogers says Casey played great for the Dodgers down the stretch.

Phil’s definition of “great” is a little…uh…wrong.

In 58 games for LA, Casey hit 10 homers (nice), drove in 23 runs (ehh, not so great), hit .251 (guh), had an on base average of .313 (who does he think he is, Neifi?) and grounded into nine double plays (even Derrek Lee laughed at that…well, probably not since it’s roughly the same pace Derrek was on all year.)

E-ramis Ramirez hit 11 homers after the seventh inning this season.  E-ramis Ramirez is the balls.

Advantage: CUBS (4-0)

Catcher: Geovany Soto, Cubs v. Russell Martin, Dodgers

Both of these guys were All-Star catchers last year for the National League.  Of course, one of them started the game and will be the rookie of the year.

The other one is weird, and Canadian and has three middle names and one of those middle names is Coltrane.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnd7NovxFsg]

Advantage: CUBS (5-0)

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano, Cubs v. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers

Neither of these guys will be thrown a pitch within three feet of home plate this week.  The difference of course is that Manny won’t swing at them.  Oh, I kill me.

Manny might be the best righthanded hitter of his generation (especially since Albert Pujols’ generation consists entirely of other Baby Boomers).

Alfonso Soriano is a good player paid like a great one.  When he’s hot he can carry the Cubs for weeks at a time.  When he’s not?  Woof.

Neither one is a natural outfielder.  Soriano came up as an infielder.  Manny?  He’s always just been a somewhat disinterested observer out there.  At least Alfonso can throw.

Both like to hit the ball and admire it, as it bounces off of the wall and they end up hurrying to get a single.

Here’s the difference.  

Alfonso never quit on a team to get traded.  He thought about it in Washington, but decided not to.  Manny can’t say the same thing.

Advantage: CUBS (6-0)

Center Field: Lassie Edmonds and Reed Johnson, Cubs v. Matt Kemp, Dodgers

Both teams got to their centerfielders via roundabout means.  The Cubs picked both Edmonds and Johnson off of the scrap heap after non-playoff teams released the.  The pair combine to make one really good centerfielder.  Both play good defense, Reed rakes against lefties, and Edmonds still hits well against righties.  It works.  To the tune of a combined .280, 25 HR, 99 RBI centerfielder.

Kemp ended up with the job even though the Dodgers are paying two other centerfielders the gross national product of Luxembourg.  He’s a nice player, but he’s still just a pile of tools, and he doesn’t shave his head or wear guyliner.

Advantage: CUBS (7-0)

Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome and Mark DeRosa, Cubs v. Andre Ethier, Dodgers

Kosuke had a good first half (.279 ba, .383 oba) and Ethier had a nice second half (.335 ba, .409 oba, .583 slg).  Kosuke was awful in the second half, and that’s why you might see DeRosa get a start out there, or maybe even Reed Johnson.  So how can we pick Kosuke?

Three reasons:

a) He’s clutch.  He had a terrible World Baseball Classic in 2006 until he hit a pinch hit three run homer to win it for Japan.

b) You see way more FUKUDOME t-shirts than ETHIER ones.  What the hell is Ethier, anyway?  French?

c) Isn’t it obvious by now that I’m just picking Cubs?

Advantage: CUBS (8-0)

Pitching matchups:

Game One: Ryan Dempster, Cubs v. Derek Lowe, Dodgers

Many people have loathed Cubs’ pitching coach Larry Rothschild for a very long time.  I was never one of them.  (OK, that’s a lie, I was often, though not always, one of them.)  However, I think our pal Larry deserves some credit for one of the most improbable pitching staff swaps of all-time.  Ryan Dempster went from Cubs’ closer to a 17 game win starter, and Kerry Wood went from oft-injured starter to once-injured closer.  Both were All-Stars, both deserved it.  Most of the work was done by Dempster and Wood, but come on, you have got to give credit to their pitching coach, don’t you?  I mean he had to do something.

Dempster was almost unbeatable at Wrigley Field and thanks to a late season Carlos Zambrano meltdown he’ll start game one.  Amazingly, we all feel good about this.  

Lowe made his bones with some clutch pitching in the 2004 playoffs for the Red Sox, but outside of that, his postseason numbers are just OK.  In the Dodgers last playoff appearance (does anybody even remember that they were in the 2006 playoffs–OK, I mean other than JD Drew making the second out on the same play at home plate?) Lowe was actually kind of bad.

Advantage: CUBS (9-0)

Game Two — Carlos Zambrano, Cubs v. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

Speaking of being kind of bad in the postseason, that’s what Carlos Zambrano was in 2003.  In three starts he gave up 25 hits and 10 earned runs, included in those losses were games one and five of the NLCS.  Game one was particularly egregious because the Cubs spotted him a 4-0 lead after one inning.

To be fair to Carlos, down the stretch in 2004 he was unbelievable.  While the rest of the team was choking Carlos went 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA.  Then, last year when he finally got back to the playoffs he threw six innings of one run, four hit, eight strikeout baseball.  Lou tried to get him out so he could bring him back in game four, only to see the Cubs lose that night, and the next and in game three and never play in game four.

So which Carlos will we get?  The one who threw the no-hitter?  Or the one who surrounded that effort with six bad ones?  He’s awesome on 11 days’ rest.  This time he’ll have seven.  I’m not predicting a no-hitter.  How about a three hitter?

As for Billingsley, he’s fat and he wasn’t all that great in “A Christmas Story.”

Advantage: CUBS (10-0)

Game Three — Rich Harden, Cubs v. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers

A lot of Cubs’ fans would like to see Harden pitch game two, to allow the possibility he could come back and pitch game five if needed, but since the days off in the series don’t match what Phil Rogers told us they were going to (Thanks, Phil!) he’d be coming back on short rest, so never mind.

Media types make a big deal out of how hard it is to hit at Dodger Stadium at night because the ball doesn’t seem to carry through that big outfield once the sun goes down.  When you factor in how hard Harden is to hit anywhere, I think he follows up Z’s three hitter with a no hitter in which no batter hits the ball past the pitcher’s mound.  Just a bunch of K’s and 1-3 putouts. 

Yeah, Kuroda shut out the Cubs on four hits (with 11 K’s and no walks no less) back in June.  That’s ancient history.  Check out Kuroda’s stats more recently.  In his last eight starts he’s made it to the seventh once, and that was against Pissburgh.  Big whup.

Advantage: CUBS (11-0)

Game Four — Theodore Roosevelt Lilly, Cubs v. Lowe (if necessary)

Not necessary.  Besides, for the last three weeks Ted’s been the best pitcher on the team.

Advantage: CUBS (12-0)

Closer — Kerry Wood, Cubs v. Takashi Saito, Dodgers

Kerry’s had his moments where he’s made us sweat, but for the most part he’s been a really good closer.  He’s had better control than we had reason to hope for, and his stuff is still filthy.  

As for Saito, he missed a big chunk of the season and he pitched against the Cubs four times this year with no saves, a blown save and a loss.  

Advantage: CUBS (13-0)

The rest of the bullpen — Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzjia, Sean Marshall (and three duds), Cubs v. Jonathan Broxton, Joe Beimel and four duds, Dodgers

If the Cubs get to the eighth with a lead you can forget about it.  Marmol and Wood will take it from there.  Anytime before that?  Uhh…um…hey, look over there, something shiny!  Look at the shiny object!  Look at it!  (Yeah, Samardzjia’s a dud, too unless he actually decides to throw a strike.)

As for the Dodgers, their best reliever (at least lately) Hong-Chi Kuo can’t get off of his double shifts at Panda Express and isn’t on the playoff roster.

Advantage: CUBS (13-0)

Bench — Hank White, Fat Kangaroo, RonCe, Micah Hoffpauir, whichever CF isn’t playing, Mike Fontenot, Cubs v. Nomar!, whichever 2bman isn’t playing, Luis Maza, Lucky Pierre, whoever their backup catcher is, Andruw Jones (muahahahahahahaha!)

So let’s get this straight?  The Cubs bench consists of the greatest backup catcher of all-time, a legendary pinch hitter, a centerfielder who could start for 21 other big league teams and the greatest 5’3 power hitter of all time, and the Dodgers bench includes a former Cub made out of glass, a former Cub who spends four hours before every game rolling his balls down the foul lines (huh?) and a $20 million a year centerfielder with worse batting totals than Carlos Zambrano?

Advantage: CUBS (14-0)

Manager — Lou Piniella, Cubs v. Joe Torre, Mets

A battle of former Yankees managers.  Torre won four World Series with the Yankees of the mid ’90s and early oughts.  Piniella won one with the ’90 Reds.  Torre once won 114 games with the Yankees in a season.  Lou won 116 with the Mariners.  Torre’s a fine manager and a good man, but holy crap if you’d given Lou those Yankees teams one of them would have won 130 games and caused a National League team to forfeit in the World Series.

Advantage: CUBS (15-0)

So there you have it.  Fifteen categories.  One clear winner in all of them.  Plus, Peter Gammons and Mike Downey both picked the Dodgers.

Cubs in three (maybe two.)