Just because I’ve been inexcusably silent and absent lately, doesn’t mean I’ve given up on the 2004 college basketball season quite yet. And thanks to our very own B.C., it looks like I’ve got plenty to clear up before the brackets are released.

I’m assuming it’s been noted elsewhere, but just how ridiculous of a season did Dave Bliss have last year at Baylor? Forget what a deadly shooter Dotson turned out to be (tasteless, I know), it’s quite possible he had this year’s Big 12 Player of the Year (John Lucas) and SEC Player of the Year (Lawrence Roberts) on the roster, and he still only managed a 14-14 record. I mention this because both transfers made the 2004 Wooden Award final ballot of 20. Less deserving players on the list that bear mentioning; B.J. Elder (Georgia Tech), Ike Diogu (Arizona State), Travis Diener (Marquette), Matt Freije (Vanderbilt)… They’re taking the place of guys like; Delonte West (St. Joseph’s), Rashad McCants (Carolina), Gerry McNamara (Syracuse), Carl Krauser (Pitt) and of course everybody’s All-Americans, J.J. “Fear the limp wrist, baby!” Redick and/or Luol Deng. Kidding. Kinda. No Illini’ made the list—but I’m sure you already knew that.

B.C. is a bit mis-guided in Part 1 of his Running the Numbers. Not quite as mis-guided as his shaky spell-check, but still.

Every hoophead with a television contract, will be bombarding you over the next two weeks with sleepers and busts. And there’s no reason you shouldn’t expect to find the same type of simple breakdowns here. Except we’ll be right.

That said, the defending champs can never ever be deemed a ‘sleeper.’ Their RPI is 8!!! Who is sleeping on them??? Syracuse had a rough stretch in late January through mid-February, underachieving their way to a 6-5 conference schedule. But, they’ve won their last five, including top-10 wins against Pitt and UConn, they’ve got a pro level prospect in Hakim Warrick, and a Hall-of-Fame level coach in Boeheim. They’re looking at a 4 or 5 seed, and no one in the tournament will be taking them lightly. That doesn’t mean their 2-3 zone won’t give people fits, and they can’t make a run to the Elite 8 if they find themselves in any region besides Duke’s. Anything more would be borderline miraculous, as Gerry McNamara ‘with a G’, is getting no help in the backcourt, and Hakim only occasionally gets help in the frontcourt from foul-prone Craig Forth.

Arizona can’t be considered a ‘sleeper,’ either. They still have a McDonald’s All-American littered roster, coached by a Hall-of-Famer that knows a thing or two about surviving and advancing. The Cats are horrible up front, but if Salim Stoudamire is on, they are capable of giving any team in the tournament fits. Of course Salim is also capable of giving his coach fits as well. Aside from their frontcourt weakness, this will be Mustafa Shakur’s first NCAA’s. And he doesn’t quite strike me as championship-caliber point guard just yet.

Vandy certainly qualifies as a sleeper, and I agree they’re already dancing… too bad they’re likely headed for a one-and-done, in the 7/10 or 8/9 game. They won’t be a #1 or #2 seed, even though I realize they did beat Kentucky (at home), and got a quality road win at Alabama.

Air Force? Impressive 13-0 home record. 3-1 against teams with a RPI better than 50. Not bad, unless you’re like me and think that BYU and Utah suck. 22-5 record is certainly noticeable, until you realize they did so while playing the 175th rated schedule.

We can do better.

Your real tourney sleepers should meet a couple of criteria:
1. At least one legit (see: tourney-bound) road win.
2. At least two of the losses should have been by no more than 3 points.
3. Their RPI is higher than 20.

Real Sleepers:

Would you believe, B.C.? As in Boston College (RPI – 24)- This is not a sleeper that should be bothering the San Antonio Convention and Visitor’s Bureau. But, the Eagles managed 10 conference wins in the Big East nonetheless. One of their season’s 8 losses came on the road against seemingly unbeatable St. Joseph’s, and they were within a trey hosting Villanova, and on the road at West Virginia. They swept Seton Hall, and ended their season with a road victory at Providence. They also notched an impressive January victory against N.C. State. Most importantly, they have a premiere player in Craig Smith—capable of putting a team on his back. At least for the first weekend.

Charlotte (RPI – 31)- 20 win team, with one loss coming on the road at St. Louis by one point. That and a loss to Cincinnati (with one ‘T’), represent their only blemishes in their last 10 games. During the season they managed a number of respectable road wins; Syracuse, Southern Illinois, DePaul, and Cincy.

DePaul (RPI – 40)- Although I have a feeling Conference USA is going to flame out quickly in the tourney, proving that their cluster atop the standings was proof of mediocrity, DePaul, unlike say Louisville or Cincinnati, is actually peaking at the right time. Heading in to their post-season tournament, they’ve won 4 straight (9-1 in their last 10), including a road win at Louisville. As far as our close losses, I had to make an exception—as the Demons lost comfortably in each of their 8 L’s. But, four of those came without the services of bad, bad Andre Brown. Baddest man in the whole damn town… Isn’t that a song or something?… Anyway, big man averages 30+minutes per game, along with 14 points and 9.5 rebounds per. And now he’s healthy. More importantly he’s joined by a scrappy supporting cast that can put points on the board; Delonte Holland (16.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg), Quemont Greer (12.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Drake Diener (Travis’ bro, with 12+ppg).

And if only to humor my J-Hawk friends that frequent this site, we’ll throw in Missouri.

Mizzou (RPI – 39)- They still have work to do, and must win their first Big 12 tourney game against Texas A&M, and maybe even their second in a potential rematch with Kansas to secure an invite. But if they can get in, they will be the most talented 10-12 seed in the tournament, and have their first round opponent feeling extremely unlucky. Though they’ve yet to notch their 16th win of the season, four of their losses; Illinois, Memphis, Belmont, and Kansas, were by a combined 9 points. Another one of their L’s came in an overtime road loss to Gonzaga, before being joined by transfer Jason Conley—-who has since earned significant minutes at the point. There’s no one to blame for all of the off-court distractions, or questions at the point this year, but Quin Snyder. But there’s also a lot of coaches and programs out there envious of the Tigers’ ability to turn it on come tourney time. Though the program has yet to sniff a Final Four, as long as Illinois or Kansas isn’t in their way—-stranger things have happened.

As far as possible busts go, if Emeka Okafor’s back continues to act up (no thanks to unnecessary extended minutes at Syracuse), UConn is in serious trouble. Jim Calhoun would be wise to sit him for every minute of the relatively meaningless Big East Tourney, even if that means slipping to a 3 seed. Without Okafor serving as a shot-blocking second line of defense to an offensive-minded perimeter, the Huskies could be watching the second weekend of the tournament on television with the rest of us.

At one time during the season, Cincinnati and Louisville both looked like Final Four-caliber teams. Their impressive first halves earned them a likely 4-6 seed, but they’re no longer as scary as they once appeared.

Stanford is my first big dog to fall. Yes they’ve only got one loss, but the Pac-10 is absolute garbage this year. More importantly, the Cardinal has been living on borrowed time behind Nick Robinson and Matt Lottich long-range-answered-prayers, and if we’ve learned nothing from Garth Brooks over the years… That’s right, I actually think Stanford would have been better served coming in as a 3 or 4 loss team and as a 2 seed, then carrying the chip-on-their-shoulder, combined with the target on their backs. Forget the mess Steve Lavin is trying to sell you—Washington does not deserve to be in the tournament (unless they ride their hot streak to the Pac-10 tourney finals). As big of a joke as it is to consider Mizzou a tourney at-large invite, Washington has an even less impressive resume. 9-5 against teams with RPI’s between 101 and 200. They are living on a sweep of Arizona and catching a tight Stanford club at the right time. Back to Stanford, let’s not forget that this is a much different team with forward Justin Davis on the shelf. Maybe they get him back during the Elite 8, a la Duke/Boozer in 2001. If you’re a Cardinal fan, I’d forget about explaining away the Washington loss, and get Mr. Miyagi on the phone.

Other thoughts on the tourney before the brackets are released:
– Count me in as someone that wouldn’t be surprised by an all-ACC Final Four (Duke, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, and Carolina or Wake).
– Saint Joseph’s is going to need a helluva lot of help from the selection committee to get past their 8/9. They don’t want any part of a Michigan State, Missouri, or Arizona.
– I do agree with B.C. in asserting that Florida should feel ecstatic about a one-and-done.
-Mid-majors that could make the Sweet 16 with a little luck; Manhattan, Eastern Tennessee and Western Michigan.
-No bubble team will have as compelling of arguments for exclusion as those from years past.
-The committee will remember the whole Mormons and the Sabbath mess.

We’re getting close. Like 101 hours away from having an actual reason to hang on every word coming out of Greg Gumbel’s mouth.

And if you only came here looking for pictures of scantily-clad coeds you’ve never heard of… You’re in luck.

Jordan Ladd (Cheryl’s daughter—like there was any doubt how she’d turn out) whom you can see even more of at your video store if you check out Cabin Fever.

And Cerina Vincent, who you may remember as Areola from Not Another Teen Movie, who can also be seen in Cabin Fever.

Just remember who loves ya baby! And also remember that B.C. is still the man…