Desipio Message Board

Quote from: R-V on May 18, 2010, 08:41:11 AM
So these gutless assholes are 6th in the NL in OBP and 4th in slugging. Pretty good right? But it seams to me, anecdotally, that this offense is all or nothing: either 2 or 3 runs or 7 or 8 runs.

I ask you this, statguzzlers: is there some sort of team run variance type stat that measures the volatility/inconsistency of a particular offense compared to the rest of the league? I'm curious if the Cubs are any more hot/cold than other offenses.

Quote from: PenPho on June 17, 2010, 06:52:03 PM
Joe Pos calling out Billy Beane.

QuoteWe have known for fifteen years that there are positions that require 20 moves; we have just proved that there are none that require more.

Quote from: Alrish Yeltin on July 13, 2011, 01:25:41 PM
Excuse me while I am as timely as a common PenFoe, but......

Fuck wOBA, fuck WAR, fuck OPS+, allow me to introduce OPSBIs!

Quote from: morpheus on July 13, 2011, 01:34:09 PM

Quote from: Alrish Yeltin on July 13, 2011, 01:25:41 PM
Excuse me while I am as timely as a common PenFoe, but......

Fuck wOBA, fuck WAR, fuck OPS+, allow me to introduce OPSBIs!

It's awesome because adding RBIs tells you so much more about the relative baseball playing skill of those players.

Quote from: Fork on July 14, 2011, 07:51:28 AM

Quote from: morpheus on July 13, 2011, 01:34:09 PM

Quote from: Alrish Yeltin on July 13, 2011, 01:25:41 PM
Excuse me while I am as timely as a common PenFoe, but......

Fuck wOBA, fuck WAR, fuck OPS+, allow me to introduce OPSBIs!

It's awesome because adding RBIs tells you so much more about the relative baseball playing skill of those players.

Hey man, there's a huge variance between the top 11 in OPS and OPSBI - that's why Theo makes the big bucks.

Seriously, why do I think someone fed this shit to Bowden as a "$5 says the asshole writes it up!" thing?

QuoteDue to confidentiality agreements and proprietary rights, I can't share my experiences with advanced statistical systems during my years as a general manager. However, as much as the public is aware of and embraces statistics like Wins Above Replacement (WAR), WHIP, and OPS, many clubs have algorithms that are much more complicated and helpful.

Baseball also has a simple to side to it. I get asked all the time which two or three common statistics I would pick to evaluate a team or players. My quick answer would be the following:

1. For a team: Run differential
2. For a hitter: OPS + RBIs, or OPSBIs
3. For a pitcher: ERA, WHIP, SO

Quote(Of course, with leadoff hitters, OBP+R+SB would be a better barometer, so you have to know the type of hitter your looking at)

QuoteOPSBI is so nutty no one's even noticing Bowden's using R minus ER for run differential to evaluate teams. #JimBowdenstats

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on July 14, 2011, 08:41:39 AM
DPD...

http://twitter.com/king_kaufman/status/81358405524131840

QuoteOPSBI is so nutty no one's even noticing Bowden's using R minus ER for run differential to evaluate teams. #JimBowdenstats

QuoteReturning to the present day, I'm currently in the midst of writing my college thesis (yes, it's on baseball), and I recently came across a piece of research that sounded my "wow, everything I thought I knew about baseball is wrong" alarm to claxon-like levels. In the 1915 edition of Baseball Magazine (distributed from 1908-1957), there's an article written by F.C. Lane that would make even Tom Tango take notice (assuming he isn't already aware of its existence): "Why the System of Batting Averages Should Be Changed: Statistics Lie at the Foundation of Baseball Popularity — Batting Records Are the Favorite — And Yet Batting Records Are Unnecessarily Inaccurate."

Lane opens his discussion with a question: "Suppose you asked a close personal friend how much change he had in his pocket and he replied, 'Twelve coins,' would you think you had learned much about the precise state of his exchequer?" He goes on to compare two mens' respective financial situations: Man A, with "twelve coins" consisting of a combination of quarters, nickels, and dimes; and Man B, with twelve silver dollars. Saying both men have equal financial means is equivalent to the system of tracking batting averages, he explains. "One batter, we may say, made twelve singles, three or four of them of the scratchiest possible variety. The other also made twelve hits, but all of them were good ringing drives, clean cut and decisive, three of them were doubles, one a triple, and one a home run...Is there no way to separate the dimes from the nickels and give each its proper value?" Sound familiar?

"If these averages mislead or give mistaken ideas of batting ability they forfeit their only excuse in being?"

...

"Let it be hoped that 1916, the dawn of a new day in baseball affairs, will witness as well the dawn of a new day in the outworn method of keeping batting averages. The time has passed when the public will any longer swallow the palpable falsehood that a home run is no better than a scratch single. It knows better, instinctively feels better, and should be told the truth by a presentation of the season's statistics founded upon a sane, workmanlike basis."

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 12:16:43 PM
The internet rediscovers OMS.