Desipio Message Board

Quote from: CBStew on January 19, 2012, 01:49:28 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 12:16:43 PM
The internet rediscovers OMS.

Somebody has too much time on his hands.

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 03:26:05 PM

Quote from: CBStew on January 19, 2012, 01:49:28 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 12:16:43 PM
The internet rediscovers OMS.

Somebody has too much time on his hands.

Or possibly not enough.

Quote from: Eli on January 19, 2012, 03:55:47 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 03:26:05 PM

Quote from: CBStew on January 19, 2012, 01:49:28 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 12:16:43 PM
The internet rediscovers OMS.

Somebody has too much time on his hands.

Or possibly not enough.

I'm still sitting on the goldmine that is CRAFT.

Quote from: Eli on January 19, 2012, 03:55:47 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 03:26:05 PM

Quote from: CBStew on January 19, 2012, 01:49:28 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 12:16:43 PM
The internet rediscovers OMS.

Somebody has too much time on his hands.

Or possibly not enough.

I'm still sitting on the goldmine that is CRAFT.

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 04:10:37 PM

Quote from: Eli on January 19, 2012, 03:55:47 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 03:26:05 PM

Quote from: CBStew on January 19, 2012, 01:49:28 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 12:16:43 PM
The internet rediscovers OMS.

Somebody has too much time on his hands.

Or possibly not enough.

I'm still sitting on the goldmine that is CRAFT.

Take your time. Don't rush anything.

Quote from: ChuckD on January 19, 2012, 07:30:53 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 04:10:37 PM

Quote from: Eli on January 19, 2012, 03:55:47 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 03:26:05 PM

Quote from: CBStew on January 19, 2012, 01:49:28 PM

Quote from: J. Walter Weatherman on January 19, 2012, 12:16:43 PM
The internet rediscovers OMS.

Somebody has too much time on his hands.

Or possibly not enough.

I'm still sitting on the goldmine that is CRAFT.

Take your time. Don't rush anything.

:(

Quote"If you tell me you think you can quantify an event that is about to happen that you don`t expect, like the 47 percent comment or a debate performance, I think you think you are a wizard. That`s not possible," Times columnist David Brooks, a moderate conservative, said on PBS earlier this month. "The pollsters tell us what`s happening now. When they start projecting, they`re getting into silly land."

Quote"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance — they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way. And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes."

QuoteNate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Quote from: R-V on October 29, 2012, 03:44:21 PM
It was bad enough when Nate Silver ruined baseball by forcing all of us to gargle the balls of sabermetrics. Now he has to ruin GUT FEELING, unskewed political predictions too?!

Quote"If you tell me you think you can quantify an event that is about to happen that you don`t expect, like the 47 percent comment or a debate performance, I think you think you are a wizard. That`s not possible," Times columnist David Brooks, a moderate conservative, said on PBS earlier this month. "The pollsters tell us what`s happening now. When they start projecting, they`re getting into silly land."

Quote"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance — they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way. And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes."

QuoteNate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Quote from: R-V on October 29, 2012, 03:44:21 PM
It was bad enough when Nate Silver ruined baseball by forcing all of us to gargle the balls of sabermetrics. Now he has to ruin GUT FEELING, unskewed political predictions too?!

Quote"If you tell me you think you can quantify an event that is about to happen that you don`t expect, like the 47 percent comment or a debate performance, I think you think you are a wizard. That`s not possible," Times columnist David Brooks, a moderate conservative, said on PBS earlier this month. "The pollsters tell us what`s happening now. When they start projecting, they`re getting into silly land."

Quote"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance — they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way. And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes."

QuoteNate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Quote from: Brownie on October 29, 2012, 04:40:26 PM
He has Romney at a 25% chance. Given what Silver has to work with, it wouldn't be a shocker to see Romney win.

Quote from: Gilgamesh on October 29, 2012, 03:59:45 PM
Post your (small) picture, Romeo.

The final author in question:

Quote from: Gilgamesh on October 29, 2012, 03:59:45 PM

Quote from: R-V on October 29, 2012, 03:44:21 PM
It was bad enough when Nate Silver ruined baseball by forcing all of us to gargle the balls of sabermetrics. Now he has to ruin GUT FEELING, unskewed political predictions too?!

Quote"If you tell me you think you can quantify an event that is about to happen that you don`t expect, like the 47 percent comment or a debate performance, I think you think you are a wizard. That`s not possible," Times columnist David Brooks, a moderate conservative, said on PBS earlier this month. "The pollsters tell us what`s happening now. When they start projecting, they`re getting into silly land."

Quote"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance — they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way. And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes."

QuoteNate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Post your (small) picture, Romeo.

The final author in question:

Quote from: Brownie on October 29, 2012, 04:40:26 PM
I'm optimistic for Romney, and I think projecting this election is problematic as patterns of people have changed significantly over the past 12, 8 and even 4 years. For example, just 1 in 10 people respond to pollsters. It used to be 1 in 3. We all know about cellphones vs. landlines. I've been getting Congressional pollsters polling me on people outside my district. I tell them these candidates are not going to be on my ballot, and they continue polling anyway. Thus, I think Nate's going to have a more difficult time than before.

However, he was dead-on in 2008. And while he has his biases, etc., he's very transparent about them and very transparent about his methodology. Ignore him at your peril. He has Romney at a 25% chance. Given what Silver has to work with, it wouldn't be a shocker to see Romney win.

Question I'd have for Silver -- is there any way to research polling numbers from 2004, 2000, 1996 and 1992 and project what the projections would have been at that time? I think it would be interesting and shine a clearer light on how good his model is.

Quote from: Tinker to Evers to Chance on October 29, 2012, 08:01:45 PM

Quote from: Gilgamesh on October 29, 2012, 03:59:45 PM

Quote from: R-V on October 29, 2012, 03:44:21 PM
It was bad enough when Nate Silver ruined baseball by forcing all of us to gargle the balls of sabermetrics. Now he has to ruin GUT FEELING, unskewed political predictions too?!

Quote"If you tell me you think you can quantify an event that is about to happen that you don`t expect, like the 47 percent comment or a debate performance, I think you think you are a wizard. That`s not possible," Times columnist David Brooks, a moderate conservative, said on PBS earlier this month. "The pollsters tell us what`s happening now. When they start projecting, they`re getting into silly land."

Quote"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance — they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way. And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes."

QuoteNate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Post your (small) picture, Romeo.

The final author in question:

Really?  You hoopleheads bolded the wizard part and didn't go with this?