Desipio Message Board

Quote from: PenFoe on June 22, 2009, 01:45:55 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:43:43 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:36:39 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:29:23 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:01:32 PM

Quote from: Shooter on June 22, 2009, 12:47:17 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 12:44:49 PM
Maybe Milton just has a thing for the three hole.

Code Select Expand

Split          G GS PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 3rd   19 19 82 74 9 25  5  1  1   7  0  0  6 10  .338  .402  .473  .875 35   3   2  0  0   0   0  .381   133   112
Batting 4th   11 11 44 33 6  5  1  0  1   3  0  0  9  7  .152  .364  .273  .636  9   1   2  0  0   0   0  .160    72    60
Batting 5th   11 11 44 39 6  7  1  0  2   4  0  0  5 10  .179  .273  .359  .632 14   2   0  0  0   1   0  .185    68    60
Batting 6th    3  2  9  9 1  2  0  0  1   2  0  0  0  3  .222  .222  .556  .778  5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .200   103    97
Batting 7th    2  0  2  1 0  1  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000  1   0   0  0  0   0   0 1.000   434   462
Batting 9th    6  0  6  5 0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  3  .000  .167  .000  .167  0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000   -53   -39


He's hit safely in 18 of the 19 games when in the third spot.

Looks like a lot of "luck" -- his BABIP is unusually high when batting 3rd and unusually low when batting 4th and 5th.

I've learned to take BABiP with a grain of salt without having other stats, like line drive %, to go along with it.

Even when Milton was not hitting, he was still walking.  Without looking at the numbers, I would guess his walk rate and K rate held steady in regard to his career.

Seriously, why isn't he hitting 7th more often?  OK, that wasn't serious.

With a little finagling of data from FanGraphs and BBRef, it's possible to approximate his LD% splits across batting order position. This assumes that if he starts in batting order position X, every AB he takes during the game occurs in that batting position. ExpBABIP is estimated at .120 + the LD%. Residual is the difference between the BABIP and ExpBABIP--you might call it "luck." So, Milton's been slightly "lucky" in the third spot, and somewhere between "unlucky" and "really unlucky" everywhere else (although, 6, 7, and 9 are insignificant in terms of sample sizes).

Code Select Expand

BOP LD% BABIP ExpBABIP Residual
3 0.254 0.381 0.374 0.007
4 0.077 0.160 0.197 -0.037
5 0.179 0.185 0.299 -0.114
6 0.167 0.200 0.287 -0.087
7 1.000 1.000 1.120 -0.120
9 0.000 0.000 0.120 -0.120
Total 0.198 0.285 0.318 -0.033

Would have any idea what the average LD% is for a major leaguer?  How about for a third place hitter?  Outfielders?

Overall, this does bode well for Bradley for the rest of the year.

Across all players, average LD% is about 18.7%. I don't know where you'd go to find a split like that across all BOP for all players. Milton's average LD% for his career is 21% with a .321 BABIP. Last year, he put up 25% and .388 respectively.

What's the conclusion from all of this - that he's getting out of a slump? That he hasn't really been slumping?

Precisely.  His expected BA, judging from his line drive percentage is well below what it should (what is expected).  Many of his line drives are turning into outs.  That eventually evens out, especially for a player who hits as many line drives as he does.

We're about to get a healthy dose of Badass Milton.  Sit back and enjoy.

Quote from: PenFoe on June 22, 2009, 01:45:55 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:43:43 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:36:39 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:29:23 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:01:32 PM

Quote from: Shooter on June 22, 2009, 12:47:17 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 12:44:49 PM
Maybe Milton just has a thing for the three hole.

Code Select Expand

Split          G GS PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 3rd   19 19 82 74 9 25  5  1  1   7  0  0  6 10  .338  .402  .473  .875 35   3   2  0  0   0   0  .381   133   112
Batting 4th   11 11 44 33 6  5  1  0  1   3  0  0  9  7  .152  .364  .273  .636  9   1   2  0  0   0   0  .160    72    60
Batting 5th   11 11 44 39 6  7  1  0  2   4  0  0  5 10  .179  .273  .359  .632 14   2   0  0  0   1   0  .185    68    60
Batting 6th    3  2  9  9 1  2  0  0  1   2  0  0  0  3  .222  .222  .556  .778  5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .200   103    97
Batting 7th    2  0  2  1 0  1  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000  1   0   0  0  0   0   0 1.000   434   462
Batting 9th    6  0  6  5 0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  3  .000  .167  .000  .167  0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000   -53   -39


He's hit safely in 18 of the 19 games when in the third spot.

Looks like a lot of "luck" -- his BABIP is unusually high when batting 3rd and unusually low when batting 4th and 5th.

I've learned to take BABiP with a grain of salt without having other stats, like line drive %, to go along with it.

Even when Milton was not hitting, he was still walking.  Without looking at the numbers, I would guess his walk rate and K rate held steady in regard to his career.

Seriously, why isn't he hitting 7th more often?  OK, that wasn't serious.

With a little finagling of data from FanGraphs and BBRef, it's possible to approximate his LD% splits across batting order position. This assumes that if he starts in batting order position X, every AB he takes during the game occurs in that batting position. ExpBABIP is estimated at .120 + the LD%. Residual is the difference between the BABIP and ExpBABIP--you might call it "luck." So, Milton's been slightly "lucky" in the third spot, and somewhere between "unlucky" and "really unlucky" everywhere else (although, 6, 7, and 9 are insignificant in terms of sample sizes).

Code Select Expand

BOP LD% BABIP ExpBABIP Residual
3 0.254 0.381 0.374 0.007
4 0.077 0.160 0.197 -0.037
5 0.179 0.185 0.299 -0.114
6 0.167 0.200 0.287 -0.087
7 1.000 1.000 1.120 -0.120
9 0.000 0.000 0.120 -0.120
Total 0.198 0.285 0.318 -0.033

Would have any idea what the average LD% is for a major leaguer?  How about for a third place hitter?  Outfielders?

Overall, this does bode well for Bradley for the rest of the year.

Across all players, average LD% is about 18.7%. I don't know where you'd go to find a split like that across all BOP for all players. Milton's average LD% for his career is 21% with a .321 BABIP. Last year, he put up 25% and .388 respectively.

What's the conclusion from all of this - that he's getting out of a slump? That he hasn't really been slumping?

Conclusion? He was due for a drop-off from last year's numbers, but not on the order of what we've seen so far. Keep slotting him in the three hole with a hot bat behind him at cleanup. And Fork and Chuck are racist.

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on June 22, 2009, 01:41:47 PM
Give Bradley another 300 games and then compare.

You've obviously had time to reach a conclusion, no?

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:54:40 PM

Quote from: PenFoe on June 22, 2009, 01:45:55 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:43:43 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:36:39 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:29:23 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:01:32 PM

Quote from: Shooter on June 22, 2009, 12:47:17 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 12:44:49 PM
Maybe Milton just has a thing for the three hole.

Code Select Expand

Split          G GS PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 3rd   19 19 82 74 9 25  5  1  1   7  0  0  6 10  .338  .402  .473  .875 35   3   2  0  0   0   0  .381   133   112
Batting 4th   11 11 44 33 6  5  1  0  1   3  0  0  9  7  .152  .364  .273  .636  9   1   2  0  0   0   0  .160    72    60
Batting 5th   11 11 44 39 6  7  1  0  2   4  0  0  5 10  .179  .273  .359  .632 14   2   0  0  0   1   0  .185    68    60
Batting 6th    3  2  9  9 1  2  0  0  1   2  0  0  0  3  .222  .222  .556  .778  5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .200   103    97
Batting 7th    2  0  2  1 0  1  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000  1   0   0  0  0   0   0 1.000   434   462
Batting 9th    6  0  6  5 0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  3  .000  .167  .000  .167  0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000   -53   -39


He's hit safely in 18 of the 19 games when in the third spot.

Looks like a lot of "luck" -- his BABIP is unusually high when batting 3rd and unusually low when batting 4th and 5th.

I've learned to take BABiP with a grain of salt without having other stats, like line drive %, to go along with it.

Even when Milton was not hitting, he was still walking.  Without looking at the numbers, I would guess his walk rate and K rate held steady in regard to his career.

Seriously, why isn't he hitting 7th more often?  OK, that wasn't serious.

With a little finagling of data from FanGraphs and BBRef, it's possible to approximate his LD% splits across batting order position. This assumes that if he starts in batting order position X, every AB he takes during the game occurs in that batting position. ExpBABIP is estimated at .120 + the LD%. Residual is the difference between the BABIP and ExpBABIP--you might call it "luck." So, Milton's been slightly "lucky" in the third spot, and somewhere between "unlucky" and "really unlucky" everywhere else (although, 6, 7, and 9 are insignificant in terms of sample sizes).

Code Select Expand

BOP LD% BABIP ExpBABIP Residual
3 0.254 0.381 0.374 0.007
4 0.077 0.160 0.197 -0.037
5 0.179 0.185 0.299 -0.114
6 0.167 0.200 0.287 -0.087
7 1.000 1.000 1.120 -0.120
9 0.000 0.000 0.120 -0.120
Total 0.198 0.285 0.318 -0.033

Would have any idea what the average LD% is for a major leaguer?  How about for a third place hitter?  Outfielders?

Overall, this does bode well for Bradley for the rest of the year.

Across all players, average LD% is about 18.7%. I don't know where you'd go to find a split like that across all BOP for all players. Milton's average LD% for his career is 21% with a .321 BABIP. Last year, he put up 25% and .388 respectively.

What's the conclusion from all of this - that he's getting out of a slump? That he hasn't really been slumping?

Conclusion? He was due for a drop-off from last year's numbers, but not on the order of what we've seen so far. Keep slotting him in the three hole with a hot bat behind him at cleanup. And Fork and Chuck are racist.

I like my conclusion better.

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:51:16 PM
No, he wasn't showboating.  First of all, the mere act of throwing the ball into stands is fine, if it's the third out.  It happens all the time.  Secondly, his pose I took as being more of a relief that he caught the ball, since he lost one in the sun just before that catch.

I thought a pose was, by definition, showboating.  When does a pose become showboating?

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on June 22, 2009, 02:05:45 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:51:16 PM
No, he wasn't showboating.  First of all, the mere act of throwing the ball into stands is fine, if it's the third out.  It happens all the time.  Secondly, his pose I took as being more of a relief that he caught the ball, since he lost one in the sun just before that catch.

I thought a pose was, by definition, showboating.  When does a pose become showboating?

If his pose was one of relief that he caught the ball (as assumed by Oleg) then would the pose not be self-deprecating? If you show relief for having made the play, then the implication is that you were not confident in your abilities and did not expect to have successfully made the catch. If you don't pose, then you're flaunting your abilities.

Quote from: Internet Apex on June 22, 2009, 01:48:35 PM

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on June 22, 2009, 01:41:47 PM

Quote from: Internet Apex on June 22, 2009, 01:37:25 PM
So far, yelling at an umpire and heaving a ball into the stands are the only things he's done that would get a little leaguer benched. Where does that rank him on the list of Criminally Baseball Stupid for 2009? He's no Michael Barrett.

The heaving the ball in the stands undersells his fuck up.  He forgot how many outs there were and decided to showboat.

As to equating him to Barrett, you have to give Bradley a chance.  Barrett had two and a half seasons under hsi belt here when Z busted him up.  Give Bradley another 300 games and then compare.

It was still just one fuckup. At the time Barrett got punched and eventually traded (in June if I recall), we had a litiny of Baseball Retarded Acts piled up on these threads. If they moved Bradley to catcher, he might eventually catch Barrett but I doubt it. He'd probably get hurt the first game. I know it upsets you terribly that the Cubs have a black dude on their team but please try to be objective.

*High five*

Arguing that Milton is as stupid as Barrett is positively Kaplan-esque.

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 02:13:59 PM
Arguing that Milton is as stupid as Barrett is positively Kaplan-esque.

We can send him a text...

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on June 22, 2009, 02:19:30 PM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 02:13:59 PM
Arguing that Milton is as stupid as Barrett is positively Kaplan-esque.

We can send him a text...

He blocked me from his blog and now he won't answer my emails.  I might actually need his phone number.  Or I'll just start hanging around the local tanning salons.

Quote from: Internet Apex on June 22, 2009, 01:37:25 PM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 01:18:03 PM

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 12:44:09 PM

The fact that he's starting to hit doesn't erase the fact that, on a daily basis, he does things so stupid that a Little Leaguer would get benched for it.

No he doesn't.

So far, yelling at an umpire and heaving a ball into the stands are the only things he's done that would get a little leaguer benched. Where does that rank him on the list of Criminally Baseball Stupid for 2009? He's no Michael Barrett.

Saturday he got thrown out at third for the final out in an inning (trying to take an extra base on a ball where the RF was running in to field it), running through Quade's stop sign (he had his arms up), causing the second-fattest male (23rd overall) in section 511 to scream "NOOOOOOOOOOOO!" as soon as he rounded second. The man can flat-out rake, but he's dumb as a sack of hammers.

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 02:30:41 PM

Quote from: Internet Apex on June 22, 2009, 01:37:25 PM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 01:18:03 PM

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 12:44:09 PM

The fact that he's starting to hit doesn't erase the fact that, on a daily basis, he does things so stupid that a Little Leaguer would get benched for it.

No he doesn't.

So far, yelling at an umpire and heaving a ball into the stands are the only things he's done that would get a little leaguer benched. Where does that rank him on the list of Criminally Baseball Stupid for 2009? He's no Michael Barrett.

Saturday he got thrown out at third for the final out in an inning, running through Quade's stop sign. The man can flat-out rake, but he's dumb as a sack of hammers.

Theriot does that all the time.  Since I have many black friends, I've been pointing out how retarded Theriot is all season.

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 02:30:41 PM

Quote from: Internet Apex on June 22, 2009, 01:37:25 PM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 01:18:03 PM

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 12:44:09 PM

The fact that he's starting to hit doesn't erase the fact that, on a daily basis, he does things so stupid that a Little Leaguer would get benched for it.

No he doesn't.

So far, yelling at an umpire and heaving a ball into the stands are the only things he's done that would get a little leaguer benched. Where does that rank him on the list of Criminally Baseball Stupid for 2009? He's no Michael Barrett.

Saturday he got thrown out at third for the final out in an inning, running through Quade's stop sign. The man can flat-out rake, but he's dumb as a sack of hammers.

If I coached little league though, and God help everyone involved if I do, I wouldn't bench a kid for running into an out. I might threaten castration, but I wouldn't actually mean it.

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 02:30:41 PM

Quote from: Internet Apex on June 22, 2009, 01:37:25 PM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 01:18:03 PM

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 12:44:09 PM

The fact that he's starting to hit doesn't erase the fact that, on a daily basis, he does things so stupid that a Little Leaguer would get benched for it.

No he doesn't.

So far, yelling at an umpire and heaving a ball into the stands are the only things he's done that would get a little leaguer benched. Where does that rank him on the list of Criminally Baseball Stupid for 2009? He's no Michael Barrett.

Saturday he got thrown out at third for the final out in an inning (trying to take an extra base on a ball where the RF was running in to field it), running through Quade's stop sign (he had his arms up), causing the second-fattest male (23rd overall) in section 511 to scream "NOOOOOOOOOOOO!" as soon as he rounded second. The man can flat-out rake, but he's dumb as a sack of hammers.

So that makes Theriot stupid beyond recognition.

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 02:28:36 PM

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on June 22, 2009, 02:19:30 PM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 02:13:59 PM
Arguing that Milton is as stupid as Barrett is positively Kaplan-esque.

We can send him a text...

He blocked me from his blog and now he won't answer my emails.  I might actually need his phone number.  Or I'll just start hanging around the local tanning salons.

I hear he's caucasianing up.  He was using a David Hernandez credit card to pay for the tanning.

Quote from: Slak on June 22, 2009, 02:33:33 PM

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 02:30:41 PM

Quote from: Internet Apex on June 22, 2009, 01:37:25 PM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 01:18:03 PM

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 12:44:09 PM

The fact that he's starting to hit doesn't erase the fact that, on a daily basis, he does things so stupid that a Little Leaguer would get benched for it.

No he doesn't.

So far, yelling at an umpire and heaving a ball into the stands are the only things he's done that would get a little leaguer benched. Where does that rank him on the list of Criminally Baseball Stupid for 2009? He's no Michael Barrett.

Saturday he got thrown out at third for the final out in an inning (trying to take an extra base on a ball where the RF was running in to field it), running through Quade's stop sign (he had his arms up), causing the second-fattest male (23rd overall) in section 511 to scream "NOOOOOOOOOOOO!" as soon as he rounded second. The man can flat-out rake, but he's dumb as a sack of hammers.

So that makes Theriot stupid beyond recognition.

I never said Theriot wasn't stupid. I also don't think either of them are in the Ronnie Cedeno class. That is a very special kind of stupid.

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 02:34:50 PM

Quote from: Slak on June 22, 2009, 02:33:33 PM

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 02:30:41 PM

Quote from: Internet Apex on June 22, 2009, 01:37:25 PM

Quote from: Kermit, B. on June 22, 2009, 01:18:03 PM

Quote from: Fork on June 22, 2009, 12:44:09 PM

The fact that he's starting to hit doesn't erase the fact that, on a daily basis, he does things so stupid that a Little Leaguer would get benched for it.

No he doesn't.

So far, yelling at an umpire and heaving a ball into the stands are the only things he's done that would get a little leaguer benched. Where does that rank him on the list of Criminally Baseball Stupid for 2009? He's no Michael Barrett.

Saturday he got thrown out at third for the final out in an inning (trying to take an extra base on a ball where the RF was running in to field it), running through Quade's stop sign (he had his arms up), causing the second-fattest male (23rd overall) in section 511 to scream "NOOOOOOOOOOOO!" as soon as he rounded second. The man can flat-out rake, but he's dumb as a sack of hammers.

So that makes Theriot stupid beyond recognition.

I never said Theriot wasn't stupid. I also don't think either of them are in the Ronnie Cedeno class. That is a very special kind of stupid.

When the extra base hits start piling up for Milt - you, Chuck and MikeC can chew on a tuft of Milt's yanked pubes.